August 23, 2010

PPR Fantasy Football: ADP Battles

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Ok, with that shameless promotion out of the way. One of the sources I consult the most when preparing for my fantasy drafts is MockDraftCentral. If you have never been there, prepare to have your mind blown. Wonder if you can wait for your 7th round pick to select Wes Welker? Just look at the latest Average Draft Positions (or ADPs) and you'll notice that he is already a steal in 12 teamers, as he usually goes in the early 5th. Now, that situation has the same odds as me owning 8 Ferraris, but that's what America's all about.

During my latest trip to MDC, I noticed a few players who had interchangeable ADPs and decided to sit down and think through who should go first. These are those observations:

Randy Moss (ADP: 9.90) vs. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 9.92)
Fitzy might have the advantage in age, but thats about it in my mind. They each are extremely talented pass catchers who have put up jaw-dropping numbers in the past. What sets these two studs apart in my mind are there situations. One (Moss) has a Pro Bowl quarterback throwing passes to him. The other (Fitzgerald) is helping to introduce a young QB into the league, who has already shown he can be ineffective at this level. Moss has the best complement WR on the other side of the field in Wes Welker. Fitzgerald just watched Anquan Boldin leave town, turning all of the defenses' eyes on him. Moss' situation seems infinitely better than Fitzgerald's, and it makes me really question why people are picking them in the same slot.

Chris Wells (36.37) vs. LeSean McCoy (36.49)
Here's another Cardinal being selected at the same point as a positionmate. The similarities between these guys extend further than their position of choice, though. Both can catch out of the backfield. Both are youngins being counted on in powerful offenses. Both lost their 2009 quarterbacks. Not to mention, "Beanie and McCoy" could make an excellent cop drama name. Who do I think should go before the other? I don't think there is much of a major difference between these guys. What I can say is that both LeSean and Beanie are going much later than I would let them in PPR. Pass-catching backs are hard to come by, especially ones who are the focal points of above average offenses. These guys should each be taken at the beginning of the 3rd round.

Ronnie Brown (55.19) vs. Felix Jones (55.19)
More similarities are bound. Brown and Jones are each injury prone, and have shown that they can be incendiary. The major downside to each of these guys is that neither has a clear shot to 250 carries. Sure Ronnie will get a healthy amount of touches out of the Wildcat, but he still has to share a backfield with Ricky Williams, who was serviceable when he took over late last year. Jones has Marion Barber still stuck in the RB1 position on the depth chart, but he can produce even with limited carries. To borrow a term from the world of finance, I would classify this battle as a hold. If Felix manages his way into the starting spot before Week 1, he instantly becomes the favorite. Otherwise, I like Ronnie by a nose.

Malcolm Floyd (96.27) vs. Santonio Holmes (96.65)
I'm just going to flat out say it: I have NO idea why these guys are so close together in ADP. Holmes will only play in 75% of the games this year, and who knows where he will fit into the depth chart. As Vincent Jackson's holdout continues, Floyd is really starting to look like a golden goose in my eyes. The Chargers are going to air it out no matter what, and having the number one option for Philip Rivers a tremendous asset to have. Santonio has character problems and will have to try and step into a team that has already gelled for four weeks. Floyd has so much upside that I wholeheartedly think he deserves a 7th round pick, since I see his baseline being a WR3, more likely turning into a WR2. Remember, Vincent Jackson wasn't much but a 6'5" physical specimen before becoming a fantasy stud, the same situation Floyd finds himself in now.

Do you agree with these battles? Or am I just blowin' smoke? Let me know in the comments section below.