August 29, 2010

Playing with Numbers: WR Efficiency

Bill James is probably one of the most interesting people on Earth. I mean, what's not riveting about a middle-aged guy who found a way to turn a passionate thing like sports into a system of numbers? Now when we see a shoestring catch we think, "if he had a better UZR rating, he would have been able to get that easy". But the sabermetric revolution would not have lasted this long if it didn't work. The entire concept of Billy Beane's Moneyball teams rode on the back of sabermetrics, and that worked out pretty well for the financial minnow of baseball. With all of this focus on the numbers behind baseball players, why are we still dependent on completion percentage, yards per carry and yards after first contact? Because, for the most part, the stats we have found define the players' effects on their respective teams to a reasonable extent. Of course, that doesn't mean we can't tinker with the data a little and see what we can find.

Since I have become somewhat obsessed with PPR, I decided to turn to the position most affected by the slight nuances of these leagues, WR. When I sat down to plan out how I would measure receivers, I figured that stats like catches, targets and yards per catch all played a significant role in the receivers game. The targets signify the beginning of the play, as the quarterback looks and throws to the wideout. The catches and YPC, in turn, represent the WR's ability to catch the ball and get yardage. In theory, these three stats put together would hopefully lend a bit of information to just how effective fantasy WRs are.

First I created a list of 50 players who are bound to be rostered in most PPR leagues, and collected their catches, targets and YPC numbers. I then calculated their reception % using tons of upper level math skills (catches/ targets). I took the averages of these stats to find out what to normally expect from a top 50 wideout and then the questionable stuff started. I took the average REC % and divided it by the YPC number to and multiplied the YPC average by what I found. This way, the reception percentage and YPC would be worth the same when I added them together. I then multiplied the REC % by 3, to add value since its PPR, and because there isn't much the receiver can do if they drop the ball every chance they get. Values ranged from 179.47 (Eddie Royal) to 277.98.

So who was this mystery man with the highest rating on my (very imperfect) receiver efficiency ratings? Let's take a look at him and a few other notables from my list.

August 26, 2010

Leinart Finds the Pine, Fitzgerald Owners Rejoice

When the interviewer asked Ken Whisenhunt what he expected out of Derek Anderson during his preseason start Saturday he replied with, "first downs". If that doesn't sum up Matt Leinart's inefficiencies I don't know what will. The fantasy community has been clamoring for someone to take the helm from the Trojan bust, and the Cardinal coach has finally taken the hint.

Sure, the first thing which will probably come to mind is that game last year where he went 2 for 17 with an INT at Buffalo. But he is also the guy who connected on 29 touchdowns and about 3800 yards. Anderson showed in a few limited stints with the Browns that he can be a fantasy contributor despite a terrible cast. Give him a few great pass catchers and I'm intrigued. While I don't advise picking him up any time soon I like the prospects of someone not named Leinart at QB1.

Now, assuming that Anderson can hold onto the job and put up even a fraction of the gawdy numbers that Kurt Warner has posted over the last few years, I see a notable jump in Larry Fitzgerald's value coming. All Anderson has to do is not suck and hold onto the job. Please God, for Larry Fitzgerald's sake, don't fail me now.

Breakout Player of the Year: Malcolm Floyd

Before you read about the next star wideout, make sure you enter the cash contest here:

To preface this post, let me just say that although I may have grown up in San Diego I am far from a Charger homer. So don't start giving me the, "Oh you just love the new go to Charger" treatment. As a matter of fact, I could not dislike Philip Rivers much more if he started throwing puppies instead of footballs one practice. But as I watch the preseason games for the Bolts this year, I can't tell you how high I am on Malcolm Floyd this year. Hell, even Ricky Williams couldn't explain how high that is. Let's break down the situation a little and I'll show you why he deserves much better than his 103.30 ADP in standard leagues.

First, the physical statures of these guys are nearly identical. Sure VJax has a few more lbs on him to help move defenders around, but Floyd possesses the height that Philip Rivers loves. Speed is a wash as both ran in the 4.4s at their respective combines. They each have spent multiple seasons with the San Diego squad, eliminating any problems with routes or plays.

So what has separated these players in the past? One word: situation. While Floyd struggled for targets as a deep threat, Jackson was Rivers' first choice if Antonio Gates was blanketed by the D. Now that reports are flowing in that Jackson won't play a single down in a Charger uniform, Floyd instantly shoots to the top of their depth chart, increasing his worth tenfold. After watching the most recent preseason game, my suspicions seemed to be proven as Rivers turned to Floyd as though his former number one had never even left.

That's how I see this situation unfolding. If you decide to take a chance on the new Chargers WR1, you will draft a guy who wears a different number, but puts up the same numbers as Vincent Jackson. And in fantasy, isn't that what its all about.

My Final Prediction:
88 Catches, 1160 Yards, 9 TDs. In other words, go get him now.

August 25, 2010

5 Fantasy Football Draft Day (and Full Season) Tips

As fantasy football season approaches, the air around here begins to smell of sheets of paper, spreadsheets and winning. Its the most wonderful time of the year. (Take that Christmas). The pinnacle of this 4 month celebration is draft day. It sets all of the waivers, trades and of course tall tales of one point losses on Monday night into motion. Sure, the majority of our teams will probably be demolished by some freak leafblowing accident that our star running back will sustain. But not on draft day. On that one day before the season starts, all of your players have 1000 yard seasons ahead of them... if all goes right. With all of those great feelings and emotions in mind, here's five things to keep in mind going into that glorious day, and all of the fun that follows it.

1. Do Due Diligence-  
My five year-old sense of humor took over here when I saw "do due", but that's beside the point. Going into a fantasy football draft without first sitting down and mapping out your thoughts on players is like stepping into the octagon against Anderson Silva knowing that your only fighting experience was the wrestling you and your brother did when you were five. Tom Brady might be good and all, but when you decide to spend the number one overall pick on him, you know your research was faulty.
A lot of the "experts" out there will caution you from using magazines, unless they're selling one of course. However, I definitely like to use outside sources to create my rankings. It helps to temper any irrational crushes I might have. What I would advise people doing their research to do is write down how they would rank the players and then compare it to a list by the major fantasy sports outlets (ESPN, CBS, etc.) and see if there are any major discrepancies. If there are, take a second look at their stats and situations, and decide if maybe you were a little uninformed on a guy. Of course, the expert sites can always be wrong too.
To sum it all up, make sure you do your homework before you go to your draft. That way you can get the players that YOU want.

2. Keep your Eye on the Bye-
One of the biggest mistakes I notice other owners make is selecting too many players with the same bye week. With only 7 weeks for all of the 32 teams to take their week off, there are bound to be some players that cannot fill the bench role behind your starters. Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez are popular picks as backup QBs this year, especially if you picked a quarterback early. Not much risk, huge potential rewards. However, if that early QB was Peyton Manning or Matt Schaub, you will find yourself looking at no startable option in week 7 when all 4 of their teams go on bye. Now you would have to find some other way to scrape the bottom of the free agent barrell, and release a valuable position player in the meantime. When every week can mean the difference between missing or making the playoffs, ensuring that you have a useable player during the bye weeks can mean a tremendous amount.

August 23, 2010

PPR Fantasy Football: ADP Battles

Quick Announcement: Make sure you check out the FSC Contest here! If you've ever been called creative, even by your grandma, win some money!

Ok, with that shameless promotion out of the way. One of the sources I consult the most when preparing for my fantasy drafts is MockDraftCentral. If you have never been there, prepare to have your mind blown. Wonder if you can wait for your 7th round pick to select Wes Welker? Just look at the latest Average Draft Positions (or ADPs) and you'll notice that he is already a steal in 12 teamers, as he usually goes in the early 5th. Now, that situation has the same odds as me owning 8 Ferraris, but that's what America's all about.

During my latest trip to MDC, I noticed a few players who had interchangeable ADPs and decided to sit down and think through who should go first. These are those observations:

Randy Moss (ADP: 9.90) vs. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 9.92)
Fitzy might have the advantage in age, but thats about it in my mind. They each are extremely talented pass catchers who have put up jaw-dropping numbers in the past. What sets these two studs apart in my mind are there situations. One (Moss) has a Pro Bowl quarterback throwing passes to him. The other (Fitzgerald) is helping to introduce a young QB into the league, who has already shown he can be ineffective at this level. Moss has the best complement WR on the other side of the field in Wes Welker. Fitzgerald just watched Anquan Boldin leave town, turning all of the defenses' eyes on him. Moss' situation seems infinitely better than Fitzgerald's, and it makes me really question why people are picking them in the same slot.

Chris Wells (36.37) vs. LeSean McCoy (36.49)
Here's another Cardinal being selected at the same point as a positionmate. The similarities between these guys extend further than their position of choice, though. Both can catch out of the backfield. Both are youngins being counted on in powerful offenses. Both lost their 2009 quarterbacks. Not to mention, "Beanie and McCoy" could make an excellent cop drama name. Who do I think should go before the other? I don't think there is much of a major difference between these guys. What I can say is that both LeSean and Beanie are going much later than I would let them in PPR. Pass-catching backs are hard to come by, especially ones who are the focal points of above average offenses. These guys should each be taken at the beginning of the 3rd round.

Ronnie Brown (55.19) vs. Felix Jones (55.19)
More similarities are bound. Brown and Jones are each injury prone, and have shown that they can be incendiary. The major downside to each of these guys is that neither has a clear shot to 250 carries. Sure Ronnie will get a healthy amount of touches out of the Wildcat, but he still has to share a backfield with Ricky Williams, who was serviceable when he took over late last year. Jones has Marion Barber still stuck in the RB1 position on the depth chart, but he can produce even with limited carries. To borrow a term from the world of finance, I would classify this battle as a hold. If Felix manages his way into the starting spot before Week 1, he instantly becomes the favorite. Otherwise, I like Ronnie by a nose.

Malcolm Floyd (96.27) vs. Santonio Holmes (96.65)
I'm just going to flat out say it: I have NO idea why these guys are so close together in ADP. Holmes will only play in 75% of the games this year, and who knows where he will fit into the depth chart. As Vincent Jackson's holdout continues, Floyd is really starting to look like a golden goose in my eyes. The Chargers are going to air it out no matter what, and having the number one option for Philip Rivers a tremendous asset to have. Santonio has character problems and will have to try and step into a team that has already gelled for four weeks. Floyd has so much upside that I wholeheartedly think he deserves a 7th round pick, since I see his baseline being a WR3, more likely turning into a WR2. Remember, Vincent Jackson wasn't much but a 6'5" physical specimen before becoming a fantasy stud, the same situation Floyd finds himself in now.

Do you agree with these battles? Or am I just blowin' smoke? Let me know in the comments section below.

August 22, 2010

Fantasy Football Naming Contest! Win Money!

Hello FSC Readers!
I am getting lonely out here in the internets and decided to start a small contest to drum up some conversation on the site. I recently drafted my money league team and I am completely stumped on what to name it. Usually I can come up with something creative, but I'm stumped.
So here's the deal:
  • Submit a potential team name in the comment box over the next week (Contest ends on August 29 at 11:59 PM) and leave your e-mail address (so that I can alert you of other contests and nothing else).
  • I will pick the team name that I like the best using a divining rod or some other kind of fair and balanced system (AKA whichever makes me laugh the most).
  • And for all of your hard trouble, the winner will receive $10 Paypal to go join a fantasy league themselves or whatever else you can do with $10. See a movie by yourself?
That's it. Simple as pie. Take a look at the roster I'll list below (not that it has to do with the players on the team), put on your creative fedora and win some quick money!

12 Team PPR Roster:
QB: Philip Rivers
RB: Ray Rice
WR: Steve Smith (NYG)
R/W: Rashard Mendenhall
R/W: Beanie Wells
TE: Kellen Winslow
K: Matt Prater
DEF: Rotational
Bench: Malcolm Floyd, Santana Moss, Vince Young, Kenny Britt, Mike Williams (TB), Fred Jackson

Good Luck!

2010 PPR Positional Rankings: TE

This is the last installment for my 2010 Rankings. Defenses and Kickers are so fickle there's really no point in putting a number in front of them. Just take an educated guess with them and cross your fingers that they break out.

Other Rankings: QB RB WR Top 50 51-200

In the meantime, lets take a look at the best pass catchers at the tight end position.

  1. Dallas Clark, Colts- He had an incredible 100+ catch season in 2009. He might not repeat that, but he will definitely be a top TE.
  2. Antonio Gates, Chargers- With the absence of VJax, look for the former Kent State basketball stud to be the main focus of Philip Rivers.
  3. Vernon Davis, 49ers- He and Alex Smith showed they can make a great fantasy QB-TE tandem.
  4. Jason Witten, Cowboys- Are there enough passes to go around between Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, the aging Roy Williams and Witten?
  5. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons- If you think Tony is over the hill, you need to get your eyes checked. He revolutionized the position and has managed to dominate ever since.
  6. Jermichael Finley, Packers- My favorite pickup of last year, he is impossible to cover in the end zone.
  7. Brent Celek, Eagles- His stats in the two starts of Kevin Kolb last year: 16 catches, 208 yards and a score. I don't think he can keep that up over 16 games, but its a good omen, that's for sure.
  8. Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers- I went to the same high school as him, and let me tell you this, he might be the most athletic person I've ever seen.
  9. Owen Daniels, Texans- I was a victim of his injury last year as I watched what looked like a 100+ catch tight end turn into waiver fodder. If he pulls a Wes Welker he will be a huge value.
  10. Chris Cooley, Redskins- Everyone says he is the funniest guy in the NFL. Let's hope he turns a few of those laughs into TDs.
  11. Heath Miller, Steelers- Not many people like Heath, but he was a quality PPR TE last year. What else are you looking for if you've waited this long to snatch one up.
  12. Zach Miller, Raiders- JaMarcus' departure makes Zach's stock shoot through the roof.
  13. John Carlson, Seahawks- Struggling offenses will turn to their TEs often. Seattle will definitely be a struggler.
  14. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions- A physical beast. I think he can be the David Price of football as people forget about him in drafts after a disappointing 2009.
  15. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals- I really don't like recommending a rookie tight end, but who knows maybe he will blow everyone away.
That's all for my rankings folks. I really hope you all enjoyed them. I'd love to hear what the fantasy community has to say. So leave a comment, and tell me whether or not you think I've severely over/underestimated someone.

    August 21, 2010

    2010 PPR Positional Rankings: WR

    Other rankings: QB RB TE Top 50 51-200

    When it comes to PPR, the position that benefits greatest are the wideouts. A guy like Wes Welker or Steve Smith of the Giants becomes a stud just because they can catch the ball. Sure Smith only put up a 2.7 YAC mark last year, but who cares! He was a vacuum! No matter what receiver it is, the fact that they can compile so many points just by doing there job makes owning a succesful wideout a must in this format. So don't miss out on these guys.

    1. Andre Johnson, Texans- The undisputed champ of this position. If he slips to you after the 6th pick or so, snatch him up.
    2. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins- Sure he's got a change of scenery, but he will catch a hundred balls no matter who is throwing, or where their home stadium is.
    3. Randy Moss, Patriots-A big play threat every down. The #1 receiver of an all-time great QB.
    4. Reggie Wayne, Colts- A lot of people are down on Wayne this year. What's not to like about Peyton Manning's favorite target?
    5. Roddy White, Falcons- His small decline in yards last year was more than made up for by his 11 TDs.
    6. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals- If anyone besides Leinart was at the helm he would be a top 3 WR.
    7. Miles Austin, Cowboys- I wonder how he will interact with Romo now that he is the one getting into a celebrity's pants.
    8. Calvin Johnson, Lions- Sure he's a Lion, but he is such a physical beast that he earned the name of a transformer. 'nuff said.
    9. Greg Jennings, Packers- The catch he made in the first preseason game was impressive. Even more impressive is his ability to consistently produce quality beards. And receiving yards.
    10. Marques Colston, Saints- The fact that every NFL team had 6 rounds to pick this guy and didn't still amazes me.
    11. Steve Smith, Giants- Came out of nowhere last year as a PPR hero.
    12. Sidney Rice, Vikings- The fact that Favre has returned makes him a WR1 in 12 teamers.
    13. Steve Smith, Panthers- If he and Matt Moore click, he could be a major steal in this year's drafts.
    14. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals- The provider of one of the best hours on television and a very consistent yards and TDs producers.
    15. Hines Ward, Steelers- The absence of Big Ben will hurt him the first few weeks, but 90+ catches is a lock in my mind.
    16. DeSean Jackson, Eagles- D-Jax has the greatest big-play potential in the NFL, but Kolb scares me a bit.
    17. Anquan Boldin, Ravens- I guess I just don't get how the Ravens will function with a premier receiver. They just don't mix.
    18. Michael Crabtree, 49ers- After his impressive rookie semi-season, imagine what he can do with a training camp under his belt.
    19. Wes Welker, Patriots- He was an undisputed WR1 last year, and the ACL is the only thing holding him back. The beautiful thing is so far I have heard nothing bad about his recovery. 
    20. Hakeem Nicks, Giants- As long as Eli isn't bleeding profusely from his head, he's a pretty good gunslinger. He and Nicks showed a good rapport towards the end of last season, a great sign.
    21. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs- The suspension last year severly deflated his value. He could be great value in '10.
    22. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars- Being an undisputed number one brings a lot of targets... and just as much attention from the opposing secondary.
    23. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles- Maclin is definitely talented, but its hard being number 2.
    24. Mike Wallace, Steelers- If the Steelers follow through and recommit to the run he could be a bust. If not he should rock this year.
    25.  Percy Harvin, Vikings- The migraines are really worrying. But he is too good of a playmaker to let slip down your draft board.
    26. Santana Moss, Redskins- D-Jax was a big play threat that blossomed with McNabb at the helm. Sounds like good news for the lesser Moss.
    27. T.J. Houshmndzadeh, Seahawks- That fantasy football commercial will forever be attached to T.J. Howshamazoey.
    28. Donald Driver, Packers- He's always good, never great.
    29. Pierre Garcon, Colts- The Frenchie has asserted himself as the Colts' #2 wideout. A great sign.
    30. Malcolm Floys, Chargers- Look who's ranked below him.
    31. Vincent Jackson, Chargers- If he manages to get on the field he will be great. But in the meantime I'm banking on Floyd and getting the sure yardage.
    32. Steve Breaston, Cardinals- The Cardinal offense is built for Steve to succeed. Whether or not Leinart can help him achieve that is a whole nother animal.
    33. Derrick Mason, Ravens- Mason has been a great PPR option in the past, but with Boldin in town his value takes a major hit.
    34. Dez Bryant, Cowboys- So much talent, yet so much attitude.
    35. Robert Meachem, Saints- Was his 2009 ending a fluke?
    36. Terrell Owens, Bengals- I never thought I would see him in an NFL uniform again, but his talent is undeniable.
    37. Braylon Edwards, Jets- While the Jets' passing attack is far from intimidating, Edwards has shown he can be a fantasy star despite his team's offensive failures. (see: Cleveland Browns, any year)
    38. Lee Evans, Bills- He has been such a dissapointment that he earns the 28th spot on my list despite being one of the only above average receivers in Buffalo.
    39. Santonio Holmes, Jets- Despite all of his problems from Pittsburgh, Hard Knocks has made Holmes out to be a healthy teammate and talented passcatcher.
    40. Mohamed Massaquoi, Browns- The last number WR1 on my list. I highly advise against owning a Brown. It will just make Sundays depressing as you watch their QBs go 2-15.
    41. Eddie Royal, Broncos- Who knows, maybe he will lead the league in receptions now that Marshall is out of town.
    42. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets- Was once a legitimate fantasy threat. What happened?
    43. Devin Aromashodu, Bears- I think he will be a breakout candidate this year, unless he gets outplayed by...
    44. Johnny Knox, Bears- He has shown a great connection to Cutler this preseason, which usually means just about nothing.
    45. Kenny Britt, Titans- Showed that he and Vince Young can definitely connect, but I worry about 2nd season dropoff.
    46. Donnie Avery, Rams- After that celebration fiasco last year, I don't have much respect for him. Plus he has a rookie QB throwing to him which equals fantasy death.
    47. Mike Williams, Buccaneers- The pundits have nothing bad to say about this guy so far, which unfortunately is a bad omen.
    48. Jabar Gaffney, Broncos- If he steps up in Denver, watch out!
    49. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts- I like him to slowly work his way up the depth chart in Indy. Of course, slowly could take until next year.
    50. Dexter McCluster, Chiefs- He has gotten tons of looks this preseason, but he hasn't done much with them. Call him Wes Welker mini.

    August 17, 2010

    2010 PPR Positional Rankings: RB

    I figure since everyone and their mom are telling you what their rankings are in standard leagues, I'm going to go ahead and reach out to us underprivileged PPR players. Oh, and it'd make me all tingly inside to get some comments.

    Other rankings: QB WR TE Top 50 51-200

    1. Chris Johnson, Titans- What more can I say, he's #1 all the way.
    2. Ray Rice, Ravens- The first of many players to get the PPR boost. His hands make him a stud in this format.
    3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars- I honestly want to put AD here, just to play it safe, but for some reason MJD seems ready to explode.
    4. Adrian Peterson, Vikings- The departure of Chester Taylor makes him an even more attractive PPR option. But what if Favre doesn't return?
    5. Frank Gore, 49ers- He's soo good he made a guy retire.
    6. Steven Jackson, Rams- If the Rams were made up of an above average Pee Wee team and SJax he would still rack up 1300 total yards.
    7. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers- In Big Ben's absence, look for Pittsburgh to lean heavily on Mendenhall.
    8. Michael Turner, Falcons- Not much of a receiving threat, but you still get points for rushing yards and TDs... and Burner Turner provides plenty of those.
    9. LeSean McCoy, Eagles- I like him a lot more than most. An Andy-Reid feature back with the ability to catch is deadly.
    10. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs- Thomas Jones doesn't scare me much after his 37 yards on 4 carries. 4 carries!
    11. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers- Was tremendous before injury. J-Stew is intimidating as he waits in the shadows.
    12. Pierre Thomas, Saints- The departure of Mike Bell and Lynell Hamilton's injury makes him a premier TD scoring back.
    13. Ryan Grant, Packers- Perhaps one of the steadiest performers at the position.
    14. Ryan Mathews, Chargers- The best situation of any rookie. Could either end up top 10 or top 35.
    15. Beanie Wells, Cardinals- He has an inexperienced QB, a running offense and a great pair of hands =another great situation.
    16. Cedric Benson, Bengals- Definitely a RB to be handcuffed with how often he gets hurt.
    17. Shonn Greene, Jets- Plays for the best running offense in football, but with no catching ability takes a hit in PPR.
    18. Matt Forte, Bears- If he is 2008 Forte he's a steal. If he is 2009 Forte you'd better have Chester Taylor.
    19. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos- Already injury rumors are swirling, and he wasn't very impressive in the red zone last year.
    20. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers- The first backup picked. He has the talent, offense but lacks the PT.
    21. Joseph Addai, Colts- A good fantasy player. Never great, but always good. He's the vanilla.
    22. Arian Foster, Texans- He shoots up my board as Tate goes down for the year.
    23. Felix Jones, Cowboys- Might be the backup in Big D but he's one of the most explosive backs in the game.
    24. Jahvid Best, Lions- As long as he stays healthy, he could be a powerful rookie force.
    25. C.J. Spiller, Bills- Another guy who gets a huge boost by the misfortune of his teammates.
    26. Justin Forsett, Seahawks- Pete Carroll scares me away, but a great PPR back skill-wise.
    27. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins- If this were a PPP (Point Per Pass) league, the Wildcat would make Ronnie a king.
    28. Ricky Williams, Dolphins- Two great RBs, one backfield. Once one gets hurt, however, a fantasy star emerges.
    29. Michael Bush, Raiders- He and McFadden trade places on my list
    30. Tim Hightower, Cardinals- Was a quality PPR player in 2009, but is more than likely losing his job.
    31. Reggie Bush, Saints- We all know how much the Saints like to spread the ball around. Bush will either get you 20 or 2 points week in week out.
    32. Darren Sproles, Chargers- If Mathews shapes up to be only mediocre, Sproles could start getting into the 15-20 carry range. A dangerous proposition.
    33. Chester Taylor, Bears- If Taylor can finally become a 3 down back, he shoots up towards the top 20 in my mind.
    34. Brandon Jacobs, Giants- Another guy who was very disappointing in 09, but has a great track record.
    35. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers- He had to get the nickname Cadillac for some reason, right? Right?
    36. Darren McFadden, Raiders- I still think he could turn this trash heap of a career around, but injury rumors knock him down a notch. 
    37. Jerome Harrison, Browns- Was the MVP of many championship teams last year, but the Cleveland backfield is a real mess.
    38. Marion Barber, Cowboys- Marion the Barbarian is a beast, or should I say was a beast, now that he has started to age.
    39. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants- A home run threat whenever he touches the ball. Now if only that happened more often.
    40. LaDanian Tomlinson, Jets- The Jets run the ball more than anyone by over 100 carries. That makes the second stringer there valuable no matter how over the hill they may be.
    41. Clinton Portis, Redskins- Another backfield that looks like a pig sty.
    42. Laurence Maroney, Patriots- A strong showing in his first outing. I just hate all of these backs from BBCs.
    43. Correll Buckhalter, Broncos- Will catch the ball 4-5 times a game, even as a change-of-pace back.
    44. Donald Brown, Colts- In the immortal words of Jackie Gleason, "One of these days, straight to the moon!"
    45. Derrick Ward, Buccaneers- Was supposed to be a breakout back last year. Maybe pundits were just a year off? Answer: I don't think so.
    If you want to know my thoughts on a guy not on this list, just leave a comment below!

    August 14, 2010

    2010 Positional Rankings: QB

    Other rankings: RB WR TE Top 50 51-200

    1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers- His legs make the difference between him and Brees. Alright, that sounded weird.
    2. Drew Brees, Saints- That picture of him and his son at the Super Bowl was amazing. Oh and he throws for a ton of yards and TDs.
    3. Peyton Manning, Colts- A lock for 16 games, 30 TDs, 4000+ yards. What else do you need?
    4. Tom Brady, Patriots- He threw for 50 TDs once, no one else can say that.
    5. Tony Romo, Cowboys- Now that he has a legit receiver who doesn't wine, he's become elite.
    6. Matt Schaub, Texans- He's got a great harm and a great connection with AJ.
    7. Philip Rivers, Chargers- I'm worried that Jackson will sit out all year, but he's got a serviceable supporting cast without him.
    8. Jay Cutler, Bears- His INT numbers last year were a little disappointing, but I like for him to rebound under Martz.
    9. Joe Flacco, Ravens- Check out my thoughts on Flacco as a breakout candidate here.
    10. Donovan McNabb, Redskins- Shanahan QBs usually put up good numbers, especially ones of McNabb's caliber.
    11. Eli Manning, Giants- The lesser Manning brother will put up lesser numbers, but not terrible.
    12. Kevin Kolb, Eagles- I like the system and receivers, I'm a little skeptical of the player.
    13. Matt Ryan, Falcons- Another guy I think will be a consistent QB1.
    14. Brett Favre, Vikings- If he decides to come back, he's a top 8 QB. Right now, I'm hedging my bets on him.
    15. Vince Young, Titans- If he can string together a number of his great outings from last year, he's a legitimate fantasy backup.
    16. David Garrard, Jaguars- Hey, he was an pro-bowler.
    17. Carson Palmer, Bengals- A big boom or bust pick.
    18. Chad Henne, Dolphins- If he and Marshall click he could put up big point totals.
    19. Matthew Stafford, Lions- From what I hear, he's just as talented as his paycheck says he is.
    20. Alex Smith, 49ers- I'm hoping his end of the season resurgence wasn't just a fluke.
    21. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers- Well, we know he can score if he wants to... Too soon?
    22. Mark Sanchez, Jets- His hands looked like vacuums on Hard Knocks as he snagged passes. If only he used that time to work on not throwing INTs.
    23. Jason Campbell, Raiders- A talented QB, but plays for the Raiders (an instant disadvantage.
    24. Matt Cassel, Cheifs- Hopefully the reassembly of the New England staff in KC can make this former Patriot shine.
    25. Matt Leinart, Cardinals- I have about zero faith in him individually, but Larry Fitzgerald will make him look mediocre.

    August 13, 2010

    2010 PPR Fantasy Football Rankings: 51-200

    Quick Announcement: Make sure you check out the FSC Contest here! If you've ever been called creative, even by your grandma, win some money!

    If you missed out on the rest of my personal PPR rankings, look here.
    The few players who are bolded have notes at the bottom explaining their reasoning for being ranked so low.

    51. Felix Jones RB, Cowboys
    52. Hakeem Nicks WR, Giants
    53. Jason Witten TE, Cowboys
    54. Jahvid Best RB, Lions
    55. Dwayne Bowe WR, Chiefs
    56. Mike Sims-Walker WR, Jaguars
    57. Jeremy Maclin WR, Eagles
    58. Tony Gonzalez TE, Falcons
    59. Jermichael Finley TE, Packers
    60. Justin Forsett RB, Seahawks
    61. Brent Celek TE, Eagles
    62. Mike Wallace WR, Steelers
    63. Percy Harvin WR, Vikings
    64. Santana Moss WR, Redskins
    65. Ronnie Brown RB, Dolphins
    66. T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR, Seahawks
    67. Kellen Winslow TE, Buccaneers
    68. Ricky Williams RB, Dolphins
    69. Jay Cutler QB, Bears
    70. Donald Driver WR, Packers
    71. Pierre Garcon wR, Colts
    72. Malcolm Floyd WR, Chargers
    73. Darren McFadden RB, Raiders
    74. Fred Jackson RB, Bills
    75. Tim Hightower RB, Cardinals
    76. Reggie Bush RB, Saints
    77. Darren Sproles RB, Chargers
    78. Vincent Jackson WR, Chargers
    79. Chester Taylor, RB Bears
    80. Brandon Jacobs RB, Giants
    81. Cadillac Williams RB, Buccaneers
    82. Michael Bush RB, Raiders
    83. Jerome Harrison RB, Browns
    84. Marion Barber RB, Cowboys
    85. Steve Breaston WR, Cardinals
    86. Derrick Mason WR, Ravens
    87. C.J. Spiller RB, Bills
    88. Joe Flacco QB, Ravens
    89. Dez Bryant WR, Cowboys
    90. Robert Meachem WR, Saints
    91. Owen Daniels TE, Texans
    92. Terrell Owens WR, Bengals
    93. Donovan McNabb QB, Redskins
    94. Eli Manning QB, Giants
    95. Ahmad Bradshaw RB, Giants
    96. Braylon Edwards WR, Jets
    97. Kevin Kolb QB, Eagles
    98. Chris Cooley TE, Redskins
    99. Lee Evans WR, Bills
    100. LaDanian Tomlinson RB, Jets
    101. Matt Ryan QB, Falcons
    102. Clinton Portis RB, Redskins
    103. Brett Favre QB, Vikings
    104. Santonio Holmes WR, Steelers
    105. Heath Miller TE, Steelers
    106. Mohamed Massaquoi WR, Browns
    107. Eddie Royal WR, Broncos
    108. Jerricho Cotchery WR, Jets
    109. Laurence Maroney RB, Patriots
    110. New York Jets DEF
    111. Correll Buckhalter RB, Broncos
    112. Mario Manningham WR, Giants
    113. Kenny Britt WR, Titans
    114. Donald Brown RB, Colts
    115. Donnie Avery WR, Rams
    116. Zach Miller TE, Raiders
    117. Devin Armoashodu WR, Bears
    118. Nate Burleson WR, Lions
    119. Arrelious Benn WR, Buccaneers
    120. John Carlson TE, Seahawks
    121. Jabar Gaffney WR, Broncos
    122. Green Bay Packers DEF
    123. Visanthe Shiancoe TE, Vikings
    124. Baltimore Ravens DEF
    125. Austin Collie WR, Colts
    126. Devin Hester WR, Bears
    127. Vince Young QB, Titans
    128. Bernard Berrian WR, Vikings
    129. David Garrard QB, Jaguars
    130. Kevin Walter WR, Texans
    131. Greg Olsen TE, Bears
    132. Derrick Ward RB, Buccaneers
    133. Carson Palmer QB, Bengals
    134. Jacoby Jones WR, Texans
    135. Chad Henne QB, Dolphins
    136. Johnny Knox WR, Bears
    137. Anthony Gonzalez WR, Colts
    138. Philadelphia Eagles DEF
    139. Nate Washington WR, Titans
    140. Josh Morgan WR, 49ers
    141. Minnesota Vikings DEF
    142. Chaz Schillens WR, Raiders
    143. Ben Tate RB, Texans
    144. Golden Tate WR, Seahawks
    145. Thomas Jones RB, Chiefs
    146. Montario Hardesty RB, Browns
    147. Leon Washington RB, Seahawks
    148. Antonio Bryant WR, Bengals
    149. Pittsburgh Steelers DEF
    150. Matthew Stafford QB, Lions
    151. Chris Chambers WR, Chiefs
    152. San Francisco 49ers DEF
    153. Stephen Gostkowski K, Patriots
    154. Early Doucet WR, Cardinals
    155. Alex Smith QB, 49ers
    156. Devin Thomas WR, Redskins
    157. Dexter McCluster WR, Chiefs
    158. Demaryius Thomas WR, Broncos
    159. Ben Roethlisberger QB, Steelers
    160. Toby Gerhart RB, Vikings
    161. Laurent Robinson WR, Rams
    162. Steve Slaton RB, Texans
    163. Dallas Cowboys DEF
    164. Nate Kaeding K, Chargers
    165. Cincinnati Bengals DEF
    166. Garrett Hartley K, Saints
    167. Arian Foster RB, Texans
    168. Ryan Longwell K, Vikings
    169. Devery Henderson WR, Saints
    170. New Orleans Saints DEF
    171. Mason Crosby K, Packers
    172. Michael Jenkins WR, Falcons
    173. Mark Sanchez QB, Jets
    174. Willis McGahee RB, Ravens
    175. Dustin Keller TE, Jets
    176. David Akers K, Eagles
    177. Jason Campbell QB, Raiders
    178. Kevin Smith RB, Lions
    179. Kevin Boss TE, Giants
    180. Joey Galloway WR, Buccaneers
    181. Matt Cassel QB, Chiefs
    182. Robbie Gould K, Bears
    183. Rob Bironas K, Titans
    184. Jeremy Shockey TE, Saints
    185. Matt Leinart QB, Cardinals
    186. Joshua Cribbs WR, Browns
    187. Louis Murphy WR, Raiders
    188. New York Giants DEF
    189. Earl Bennett WR, Bears
    190. Jason Snelling RB, Falcons
    191. Matt Prater K, Broncos
    192. Mike Williams WR, Buccaneers
    193. Mike Bell RB, Eagles
    194. Jay Feely K, Cardinals
    195. Bernard Scott RB, Bengals
    196. Matt Hasselbeck QB, Seahawks
    197. Marcedes Lewis TE, Jaguars
    198. Andre Caldwell WR, Bengals
    199. Denver Broncos DEF
    200. James Jones WR, Packers

    If Favre announces he is coming back, he shoots up into the top 75.
    Should Ben Tate or Thomas Jones win their RB battles in their respective camps, I see them jumping into the top 100.

    August 11, 2010

    2010 Fantasy Football PPR Top 50

    Contract disputes. Suspensions over character problems. People too fat to play. It must be football season. And when training camp starts, the fantasy focus shifts from baseball to the gridiron. I mean, I love fantasy baseball and all, but football draft day is one of my favorite times of the year ( Right behind Christmas and free Slurpee day at 7-11). Last year, out of sheer boredom, I found myself playing in a PPR league for the first time and it was love at first sight. If you haven't tried it I definitely advise you to take a shot at it, it is a nice little twist that gives wideouts a little extra importance.When you decide to come to the PPR side, this article and the the rest of my PPR rankings will definitely come in handy, since they are hard to come by throughout the internet. Let me know what you think of the order, and come back to see who I've left off of my top 200.

    1. Chris Johnson RB, Titans- How can you argue with CJ2K?
    2. Ray Rice RB, Ravens- Probably the most explosive ground/air threat.
    3. Maurice Jones-Drew RB, Jaguars- Nothing's better than a nice MJD.
    4. Adrian Peterson RB, Vikings- Incredible talent. Just doesn't receive as much as 1-3.
    5. Andre Johnson WR, Texans- Sure he had only 9 TDs, but 100 catches and 1500 yards over each of the last 2 years is PPR-tastic.
    6. Frank Gore RB, 49ers- Was 3rd in RB targets last year. A great sign.
    7. Steven Jackson RB, Rams- He can only go up from 2009.
    8. Brandon Marshall WR, Dolphins- He's a ball-catching machine.
    9. Randy Moss WR, Patriots- Despite his age, those 2007 numbers are just too tasty.
    10. Reggie Wayne WR, Colts- Peyton Manning's favorite targer. Enough said.
    11. Roddy White WR, Falcons- 165 targets is huge for his PPR value.
    12. Rashard Mendenhall RB, Steelers- Everyone is hyping Pittsburgh's re-dedication to the run. Hopefully they don't let us down.
    13. Larry Fitzgerald WR, Cardinals- If anyone besides Matt Leinart was at the helm, he'd be a top 10 pick.
    14. Michael Turner RB, Falcons- Not much of a receiving threat but a fantasy stud nonetheless.
    15. Aaron Rodgers QB, Packers- It might just be my Green Bay bias, but he is my #1 QB because of his legs.
    16. Drew Brees QB, Saints- Pray that the Madden Curse skips a year if you take him.
    17. Miles Austin WR, Cowboys- Has all of the signs of not being a one-hit wonder.
    18. Calvin Johnson WR, Lions- You have to be talented to get the nickname "Megatron".
    19. LeSean McCoy RB, Eagles- I'm trying to get him on every PPR league I join.
    20. Jamaal Charles RB, Chiefs- All of this Thomas Jones news really scares me. But with a good amount of carries he will be great.
    21. Peyton Manning QB, Colts- Peyton is the definition of consistency.
    22. Greg Jennings WR, Packers- His final line looks great considering his slow start.
    23. Marques Colston WR, Saints- Even though Brees spreads the ball out, Colston is his his undisputed #1 guy.
    24. Steve Smith WR, Giants- His 100+ catch season makes me like him more than his Carolina namesake.
    25. DeAngelo Williams RB, Panthers- His time share with J-Stew has me doubting his 2010 impact.
    26. Sidney Rice WR, Vikings- Favre or no Favre, Rice will produce.
    27. Steve Smith WR, Panthers- Hopefully Moore/Claussen can limit the turnovers more than Delhomme did.
    28. Chad Ochocinco WR, Bengals- 85 and TO make up a great hour and a half of television. Oh and their a pretty good receiver duo as well.
    29. Pierre Thomas RB, Saints- The departure of Bell is good, and Bush is not much of a threat for goal line touches.
    30. Ryan Grant RB, Packers- If you draft him, you probably got great value. He always seems to be drafted unexplainably late.
    31. Hines Ward WR, Steelers- Don't be fooled by some pundits who rank Mike Wallace ahead of Ward. He's WR1 in Pittsburgh.
    32. DeSean Jackson WR, Eagles- The McNabb-Kolb downgrade is a little scary, but DeSean shined in the few starts Kolb had.
    33. Ryan Mathews RB, Chargers- A great situation, but a LOT of risk comes with this Charger.
    34. Anquan Boldin WR, Ravens- I'm interested to know what the Ravens look like with a real receiver.
    35. Beanie Wells RB, Cardinals- Should probably go off the board earlier than this, but Hightower and injury issues scare me.
    36. Cedric Benson RB, Bengals- The fact that he only really plays two downs hurts his value in PPR.
    37. Shonn Greene RB, Jets- See above.
    38. Matt Forte RB, Bears- Was an undisputed 1st rounder in PPR last year. How the mighty have fallen.
    39. Knowshon Moreno RB, Broncos- Coming off a very solid rookie campaign.
    40. Jonathan Stewart RB, Panthers- If DeAngelo ever went down, J-Stew becomes a top 15 RB. But that's a big "if".
    41. Dallas Clark TE, Colts- Dallas and Manning have a great rapport, an amazing fantasy attribute.
    42. Tom Brady QB, Patriots- As JT said at the Espys, "he's got the world's most awesome tight end". I hope you're reading this Giselle.
    43. Tony Romo QB, Cowboys- Apparently being without Jessica "sexual napalm" Simpson is just what he needed.
    44. Antonio Gates TE, Chargers- I once played pickup basketball with him. Let's just say hes a physical freak, aka he crushed me.
    45. Joseph Addai RB, Colts- Not a lot of noise about Addai, but he's a pass-catching back in a great offense. What's not to like?
    46. Michael Crabtree WR, 49ers- Without last year's holdout, I honestly believe he would have been ROY.
    47. Matt Schaub QB, Texans- His Pro Bowl performance showed he isn't just Andre Johnson's benefactor.
    48. Vernon Davis TE, 49ers- Had a great connection with Alex Smith over the last few weeks.
    49. Philip Rivers QB, Chargers- Great player, terrible attitude. It's a good thing that's not a category.
    50. Wes Welker WR, Patriots- All of this Week 1 talk makes my mouth water.

    Let me know where I went wrong by leaving a comment. I'd love to hear your advice before I head into my own draft.