February 20, 2010

Guys I'm Buying: Dissecting ADPs

Alright so the title may make it seem like I'm entering the slave trade, or some other human trafficking, but remember the focus of this website people! Think about fantasy! Oh god that just sent you back to the human slave thing huh? Alright, well, once you get your mind out of that gutter, take a look at this list of guys that I think are going too low in mock drafts, so snag 'em now while they're still cheap!

Ichiro Suzuki OF, Seattle Mariners (ADP: 40.29)
With the abundance of power in the first round, finding a good speed threat in the first few rounds is a good idea. It is rare for players to have a higher batting average than this guy, but what makes him so invaluable is how many ABs he does it over. Ichiro is a lock for 200 hits, and that's the number which will carry your team. Those hits will help you offset guys like Mark Reynolds or Ryan Howard and allow you to pick up their great power stats without worrying about them ruining your BA column. The Mariners have started to reload offensively, and with the addition of Chone Figgins, Ichiro could drive in more runs and show off the power a lot of scouts and coaches say he secretly possesses. Ichiro is an extremely valuable asset to have, and getting him in the 3rd round is a steal in my opinion.
My Bold Prediction: 65/12/100/30/.325

Ian Stewart 2B/3B, Colorado Rockies (126.90)
The last few mock drafts I've done, Stewart hasn't gone anywhere near this spot. As a matter of fact, I was able to snag him in the 18th round in one. Ian is a masher at a position which does not have many. He plays two valuable positions and plays in one of the friendliest hitter's parks for half of his games. His downside, of course is his average, but hes coming out of a year with a low BABIP, he's only 24 and plays in a deep park with tons of gaps. While he may never come close to hitting .290, Stewart is one of those guys in the Ichiro column who will give you great power production from a shallow position and be complemented by a good average hitter.
My Bold Prediction: 80/25/85/10/.268

Corey Hart OF, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP 195.85)
Last year, Hart was one of the top 25 OFs and people expected him to explode onto the scene after a 20/20 season in 2008. The poor suckers who bought him in 09 had to watch as he went out and put up pitiful numbers, as he battled injury and went through a season-long slump. Oh... wait... I was one of those suckers. Its hard to bet on the same guy after he failed you the year before, but I like Hart to make a comeback. His power and speed numbers fell, but the guy is a physical beast, at the ripe age of 28 and has protection from two of the biggest power hitters in the game. If he can work his way up to the #2 spot where he started last year, and can bring back a little bit of the 2008 magic, I really like him as a last-round flyer for a consistent outfielder.
My Bold Prediction: 80/20/80/22/.270

Ben Sheets SP, Oakland A's (ADP 234.97)
When it comes to starting pitching there's a rule I like to follow. ERA and WHIP will fluctuate, wins are flukes but K's you can count on. I know Sheets' injury woes precede him, but the guy can rack up the strikeouts when he's healthy. I mean this guy had 264 in one year... 264! Throw in the fact that he is moving to one of the best pitchers parks and Big Ben could really do some damage. Now, I know that his ADP is very low in part because of his late signing, but if Ben can just show up for a majority of his scheduled starts, he could put up good numbers in every category. Sheets could very well spend the year on and off the DL, but if you can get him in the last round, a return to his old Brewers form could land you a solid pitcher to round out your staff.
My Bold Prediction: 11-6/150 IPs/140 Ks/3.80/1.25