December 9, 2010

Early 2011 Fantasy Baseball ADP Report

It's December and mock drafts are already taking place throughout the web. The other day, I decided I'd try my hand at one, and I caught myself thinking, "what is wrong with me?" What would possess me to devote my time to practicing for something 5 months down the road. I'm not playing at Carnegie Hall. It's fantasy baseball. But it's a passion of mine, so here I am, breaking down ADPs for all of you wonderful fantasy fans.

3 Musketeers:

You might catch youself thinking, "Hey, there's 5 guys on this list. Is this guy stupid?" Well yes and no. But I can count. These guys don't have much in common with Athos or Portos, but instead the candy bar. Three Musketeers bars are highly underrated in my mind. Let's just say this, nougat definitely deserves to be used more often than it is. Just like these players.

Carl Crawford OF, Red Sox (Average Pick: 18.72)- 
Crawford is on his way out of Tropicana and, it seems, in to Fenway. His power shouldn't go down very much -- it might even go up-- and as I wrote in the OF Rankings, it is shocking how little his speed paid off at home. Check out these numbers:
Home: 277 ABs, 17 SBs
Away: 323 ABs, 30 SBs
His power may go down a tick, but getting a .300, 50 steals, 15 homers, 100 runs and RBIs guy in the 2nd round is a steal.

Josh Hamilton OF, Rangers (41.64)-
History might signal a regression, but the world's batting champ is much better than his ADP indicates, mainly because he is heads above his peers. Let's run down the list:
Shin-Soo Choo- 20/20 sure, but neither of those compares to 32 homers and an average that can carry an entire team of Ryan Howards.
Jayson Werth- No support in the lineup, a fat new contract to sit and count.
Andrew McCutchen- A great talent, but let's face it how many times will the Pirates drive him in?
If those are my choices, I'm going Hamilton all day.

Chase Utley 2B, Phillies (60.51)-
This one is just absurd. Right now, Ian Kinsler is being picked 5 slots BEFORE Utley. Chase has a few injury problems, but I don't think Kinsler even knows how many games are in a season. I mean he's never been able to play in more than 140 of them. Utley is a 3rd round (or even better) talent, that is being selected in the 5th. That's like Black Friday all year round.

Josh Johnson SP, Marlins (91.48)-
Wins may never be a weapon in JJ's fantasy arsenal, that we all know. However, how in the world is a guy like Johnson being selected behind guys like John Danks and Trevor Cahill. Both are good talents, but Josh led the NL in ERA last year despite a relatively slow start. With his talents, Johnson is easily a top 15 starter, not the 25th best that he is being selected as.

Kevin Youkilis 1B (for now), Red Sox (139.91)-
Youk will probably see a spike in his value once Beltre inks his name on another team's dotted line. As a first baseman, Youkilis is a #1 option in most fantasy leagues, but once he earns 3B eligibility, he shoots up the positional rankings. With Adrian Gonzalez in town, not only will he have some great protection, but will get a slot at a very shallow position. That's something that is worth much more than a 11th round pick in 12 teamers.

The Nightclubs:

Don't worry, this is a baseball list, so Ben Roethlisberger and Plaxico Burress won't be anywhere near this Nightclub section. Now, I might be in the minority, but I just flat out don't get clubs. If you enjoy music that drowns out conversation, stuck up women and $12 drinks, that's good for you. I'm staying as far away from them, and these players as possible. Or at least until their prices go down.

Andre Ethier OF, Dodgers (Average Pick: 27.09)- 
If you're an Ethier backer, I have one question for you: "What does he do that's so great?". 23 homers is nice, but you can find a lot more power than that in the early 3rd round. The 2 steals eliminates any hope for a 20/20 season, and 90/80 is not a very pretty number from the runs and RBI sectors. If he plays the entire season, he might reach 100/100, but I'm not willing to bet on that just yet. If I'm going to go outfield at this point, I'd much rather take an established force like Matt Holliday over Ethier. Plus, with the Dodgers stuck in financial limbo thanks to "The Divorce" who knows if good things are around the corner for the boys in blue.

Rickie Weeks 2B, Brewers (35.51)-
When I first saw this ADP, I assumed that there had to have only been like 3 drafts conducted. All of which were filled with only Milwaukee haters. Nonetheless, 87 drafts left Weeks going off the board as a late 3rd - early 4th round pick. Sure his power is nice, but who says 2010 wasn't a fluke, and if it is hitting .269 in a breakout year is nothing to write home about. I just can't justify the case for Weeks over potential studs like Uggla or even the aforementioned Utley.

Ryan Dempster SP, Cubs (80.51)-
I always felt bad for Dempster growing up, because I can only imagine life as a pitcher with a name so close to a trash receptacle. Of course, he is usually the one closing the lid, with 200+ punchouts. But, I just don't see the appeal here, with how many quality starters there are out there. The strikeouts are nice, but he will never be a truly complete pitcher. His ERA and WHIP are not terrible, but combined with a pathetic Chicago lineup behind him, the strikeouts are really the only value here.

Alfonso Soriano OF, Cubs (90.46)-
Really? Over Hunter Pence? Really? Both play for terrible teams, but who would ever side with the guy toeing the cliff of his career over the prized prospect who burst out the previous season. Flat out ridonkulous.

Ryan Ludwick OF, Padres (102.34)-
As a Padre fan, let me just say, with the departure of Adrian Gonzalez, STAY AWAY. Pitchers get a reprieve. But if their job is to swing a bat, like Ludwick, Petco will be the death of your fantasy team. With no protection from the big bang of Gonzo, the Padres' offense will sink even further (if that was possible). Ludwick might be talented, but anyone outside of Pujols will get eaten up hitting in the middle of this lineup.

Well my fingers are sure tired. If you like what you see here (or dare I say, disagree with me) feel free to contact me.

And make sure to bring all of your fantasy questions to the Personal Fantasy Help tab at the top!