September 17, 2010

One Week Does Not A Season Make

All across the globe, mouths are watering for Arian Foster and Matt Forte and owners are opening their imaginary wallets to put FAAB bids on Mark Clayton and Michael Vick. These are signs of a terrible epidemic sweeping the fantasy world, FWF, or First Week Fever. I'll admit it, I've been known to diagnose myself with FWF. If my team loses, I look for some quick fix and if I pull out a win, I want to constantly improve. It's a noble thought, champions are made by constant improvement. But I am here to warn everyone, including myself, that week one is no indicator of the entire year. So before you go offering Adrian Peterson for Foster, remember why you drafted guys, and keep in mind that everyone has an off week.

Lets take a quick look in the not so distant past, to 2009, and find some players who shone bright through week 1 before fizzling out just as fast as they burst onto the scene. Afterwards, we will find a player who could fit that role in 2010

Mike Bell was a two week wonder. In week 1 last year, he amassed a whopping 143 yards against Detroit (as if that weren't a big enough sign). He followed up his impressive week 1 with 86 yards and a TD at the Eagles before spending the rest of the season dealing with injury and lost in the Saints backfield. Bell would never top the century mark again, and ended up with 654 yards and 5 TDs, nothing to turn your head at, but not the massive numbers people began to imagine after the opening week.
2010 Mike Bell: Darren McFadden- Michael Bush is still looming, and Run DMC has been anything but reliable in his few injury plagued seasons.

Julius Jones was the same story in a different city. The Seahawk went nutty, posting 137 yards from scrimmage and a score against the lowly Rams (another terrible team). JJ would never top the 100 yard mark again in 2009, and only scored one other week. Sure, Jones dealt with injury a lot of the weeks, but there was a hefty price to pay in order to snag Julius after his Week 1 breakout performance.
2010 Julius Jones: Mark Clayton- He's a Ram. I mean. Come on.

2009 was supposed to be the year of Lance Moore. After a few impressive weeks in 2008, it looked like Moore and Brees might have some kind of divine connection that fantasy owners everywhere could benefit from. However, in stepped Devery Henderson, who caught a 58 yard TD and piled up 103 yards total against those same lowly Lions (sense a pattern?). We all know about Devery's game and how he can go off any given week, but there's an even better chance he will have 14 yards total. But if FWF got a hold of you, there is a good chance you were blinded by Henderson's whooping of Detroit and invested into a guy who underwhelmed almost all of 2010.
2010 Devery Henderson: Austin Collie- As long as the Colts start winning, and Garcon starts catching the ball will be headed towards Collie a lot less in the future. If you're into listening to fortune cookies and horoscopes the mercurial Colt might be for you, otherwise stay away.

No matter how hard it might be, take a few Advil, drink some Vitamin C and fight off the FWF. Remember, this is a 16 week marathon, not a 2 week sprint.