Player Snapshot: Clayton Kershaw

I live in LA right now, and while stuck in the hideous traffic that inhabits this city I turned on sports radio to hear what was going on in the world, or at least stuff that I would care about. The topic for the day: What chance do the Dodgers have at winning a World Series this year? This of course led to the string of Dodger homers calling in and saying what every fan says about their team, "we got this in the bag" and the ever famous, "this is our year". But one comment that really struck me was one talking about Clayton Kershaw. The guy was talking about how missing on Halladay was ok, because they had Kershaw who was ready to become an ace of their rotation, despite being 21. I thought ok, I guess that makes sen... 21?! Now, I knew that Clayton was young, and I knew he had talent, but I mean the guy is exactly 1 year and 2 days older than me. This might have been more of an personal crisis as a player outside of the NBA was just about my age, but it still caught me off guard just how young Clayton really is. So I decided to sit down and break down my contemporary as to what his season might look like.
Last year, Kershaw's numbers were out of this world. 185 Ks, 2.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8 Wins. Wait 8 wins? That can't be right. This guy made me do two double takes. Now that is a feat in itself. All of the stats behind this guy make it seem like he is the guy who will challenge Lincecum for Cy Young Awards for the rest of their careers, but 8 Wins? Ill touch on that in a bit, but let's take a look at some other stats of his from last year. He posted a great 2.03 K/BB ratio, which is big in the NL where every runner counts, and brought his HR/9 down from .92 to .37. That means if he threw 3 complete games, the other team might only see 1 homer. That's unheard of in the age of steroids. The only stat which will hurt him this year is the BABIP, which was already under the league average, in part due to a great defense behind him, but with the loss of Orlando Hudson and Manny sitting in left, I don't think he will be so "lucky". But that is only one stat. I mean the guy was a monster last year at age 20!
Alright, so about that whole wins thing. Now, on my lowly Padres I would understand a guy putting up those numbers and only winning 8 games (just look at Jake Peavy's early years), but Clayton's on a playoff team. It makes no sense. According to fangraph's pitch type analysis, the three pitches he threw most last year (fastball, curveball and slider), all increased his team's chance to win. He also added 2.94 to the probability the Dodgers would win. To put that in perspective, Javier Vazquez put up a 2.41 in that category and won 15 games all while playing for a team that won 9 less games than Kershaw's Dodgers.
Clayton might not have the hottest girlfriend on the team (damn you Matt Kemp!) and he might not be the most intimidating pitcher in the world since he looks like he could get pulled over for not looking old enough to drive, but the guy can flat out pitch. He's gonna put up huge stats, and the wins will come, I guarantee it. So go out and get him for your team, especially if its keeper. And if you ever see Kershaw walking around LA offer to buy him a beer since most bartenders probably won't serve him.

Projection: 15-6, 190Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

My Draft Process

I might not have been on this Earth for all that long, but I've done my fair share of fantasy drafts. I've done in-person, on the computer and slowly on message boards. I've called out bids in auction drafts, and gone traditional with serpentine. Roto, H2H, Points, the combinations to your fantasy baseball league can be endless, and I've done my best to explore all of the different settings to find what I like best. With that, this is the way I like to play, from setting myself up for a championship to the day of the draft.

Preparation:
Spreadsheets, spreadsheets, spreadsheets. I use Excel more than I use Word, which probably explains some of the grammatical mistakes I make here... and unfortunately, in my school work. I put together a list of my rankings, alongside those of magazines or sites I find reputable. I usually use a simple formula to help weight the different rankings, thus giving me a list that is not just my picks, helping to minimize any biases I might have.
Probably the most useful feature within this sheet, is the ability to filter by position. From there, all I need to do is assign numbered tiers to each of the players, and voila the tiers section is done. This comes in handy the most during the middle to late rounds, when you need to know who you would still be happy with starting on your team at a position in need.
Finally, the newest addition to my rankings spreadsheet, and my favorite thus far, is a list for each team, where their picks can be recorded. After that, I set up a conditional formatting setting for the lists, to work with the rankings so that each selected player will be crossed off the sheet. If you want to know how to do this, leave me a message and I'll be more than happy to help you get a sheet like this.
After that, its time to pick a league.

League Settings that I like:
First off, there is nothing better than having a group of people that you know, and can be competitive with in your league. Everyone has been in the league where it is down to 2 people at the end of the season, because the others forgot it was there. Plus, the best part of knowing your opponent is the trash talk. There's nothing better than telling the guy who is right behind you in the standings that if you win you're taking his sister out to dinner.
Now, with these friends, I usually like to keep leagues at the standard 12 teams. Otherwise, a lot of the advice you will find out on the internet won't mean much to you, and it is a number that will leave you with your fair share of talent, while making you work to fill out your roster with sleepers.
After that, I like to play roto more than anything. Yes, Head-to-Head allows for more trashtalking and is a bit more exciting on a day to day basis. But let's face it, rotisserie is a season long challenge that makes you pay close attention to your team at all times. I feel a lot more accomplished winning a roto league rather than streaming pitchers or punting categories in H2H.
The last thing I've really started to enjoy are keeper leagues. This is one way to not only get to know your leaguemates from year-to-year, but also adds another twist to the game, as you don't just have to know what's going on in the league this year, but down the road as well.

Draft Day:
Finally, the day has arrived, its right up there with getting your driver's license and going to prom (I'm only 20 mind you, so in a year or so I'm sure I'll have better analogies). But this is the time to put all of the hard work back in the preparation section to work. All that I bring to draft day with me is my laptop, or a printed out version of my list so I wont look like too big of a nerd. Other than that, I'll bring something to drink and a relaxed mind. While live is definitely the way to go, since you can actually carry real conversations with your draftmates, online works well just because everyone doesn't have to be in the same place. Let's face it in this age, that's near impossible. But after that, just enjoy yourself. The game is meant to be fun, and I always remind myself of that. Just sit back, relax and lay an absolute whooping on everyone else.

Guys I'm Buying: Dissecting ADPs

Alright so the title may make it seem like I'm entering the slave trade, or some other human trafficking, but remember the focus of this website people! Think about fantasy! Oh god that just sent you back to the human slave thing huh? Alright, well, once you get your mind out of that gutter, take a look at this list of guys that I think are going too low in mock drafts, so snag 'em now while they're still cheap!

Ichiro Suzuki OF, Seattle Mariners (ADP: 40.29)
With the abundance of power in the first round, finding a good speed threat in the first few rounds is a good idea. It is rare for players to have a higher batting average than this guy, but what makes him so invaluable is how many ABs he does it over. Ichiro is a lock for 200 hits, and that's the number which will carry your team. Those hits will help you offset guys like Mark Reynolds or Ryan Howard and allow you to pick up their great power stats without worrying about them ruining your BA column. The Mariners have started to reload offensively, and with the addition of Chone Figgins, Ichiro could drive in more runs and show off the power a lot of scouts and coaches say he secretly possesses. Ichiro is an extremely valuable asset to have, and getting him in the 3rd round is a steal in my opinion.
My Bold Prediction: 65/12/100/30/.325

Ian Stewart 2B/3B, Colorado Rockies (126.90)
The last few mock drafts I've done, Stewart hasn't gone anywhere near this spot. As a matter of fact, I was able to snag him in the 18th round in one. Ian is a masher at a position which does not have many. He plays two valuable positions and plays in one of the friendliest hitter's parks for half of his games. His downside, of course is his average, but hes coming out of a year with a low BABIP, he's only 24 and plays in a deep park with tons of gaps. While he may never come close to hitting .290, Stewart is one of those guys in the Ichiro column who will give you great power production from a shallow position and be complemented by a good average hitter.
My Bold Prediction: 80/25/85/10/.268

Corey Hart OF, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP 195.85)
Last year, Hart was one of the top 25 OFs and people expected him to explode onto the scene after a 20/20 season in 2008. The poor suckers who bought him in 09 had to watch as he went out and put up pitiful numbers, as he battled injury and went through a season-long slump. Oh... wait... I was one of those suckers. Its hard to bet on the same guy after he failed you the year before, but I like Hart to make a comeback. His power and speed numbers fell, but the guy is a physical beast, at the ripe age of 28 and has protection from two of the biggest power hitters in the game. If he can work his way up to the #2 spot where he started last year, and can bring back a little bit of the 2008 magic, I really like him as a last-round flyer for a consistent outfielder.
My Bold Prediction: 80/20/80/22/.270

Ben Sheets SP, Oakland A's (ADP 234.97)
When it comes to starting pitching there's a rule I like to follow. ERA and WHIP will fluctuate, wins are flukes but K's you can count on. I know Sheets' injury woes precede him, but the guy can rack up the strikeouts when he's healthy. I mean this guy had 264 in one year... 264! Throw in the fact that he is moving to one of the best pitchers parks and Big Ben could really do some damage. Now, I know that his ADP is very low in part because of his late signing, but if Ben can just show up for a majority of his scheduled starts, he could put up good numbers in every category. Sheets could very well spend the year on and off the DL, but if you can get him in the last round, a return to his old Brewers form could land you a solid pitcher to round out your staff.
My Bold Prediction: 11-6/150 IPs/140 Ks/3.80/1.25

Behind the Numbers: Votto vs Gonzalez

The 3rd round of your neighborhood draft rolls around to you. Your Yankee-homer friend Steve has already knocked back his fair share of brew and just picked Andy Pettitte, because "he's a winner". Thankfully, the rest of the guys in your draft are taking it seriously, so you've gotta buckle down. You've already got a speedy outfielder, and a high-quality middle infielder, but now you're looking for a good power hitter. You look down your list and see the top two guys who aren't crossed off are the slugger from Cincinnati and the soon to be ex-Padre Adrian Gonzalez. You know that they have been going off the board at around the same time in most mocks (Votto-30 and Gonzalez-31 according to Mock Draft Central's ADPs) So what do you do now?
Well I'll tell you what I would do, snatch up A-Gon even if he remains in sunny San Diego all year long.

First off, while Votto may seem like the up-and-comer in this situation, let's not forget the Gonzalez has yet to turn 28, so he has tons of good days in front of him despite what his 40 year-old face and 6 years of major league play may tell you. The two are fairly even in statistics as well, as Votto showed he could hit for a better average while Adrian will hit for more pop. They will both put up around the 100 mark in both RBIs and Runs, and neither is a real threat to swipe bags.

So what sets Gonzalez apart from Votto in my mind, you ask? Gonzalez's durability, but more importantly, the stats which lie underneath the ones that count in roto. What if I told you that there was a player who could put up the numbers of a high-quality first basemen all while playing 160 games in a year, is that something you might be interested in? If you didn't get that reference, please go buy Entourage now. Now watch all the seasons. Done? Ok good. You can now actually live life. Now back to the baseball. Votto is coming off a year where he missed 31 games, mainly due to stress. Now, I don't know about you but the first guy sounds a lot more secure than the one who had trouble with the pressures of major-league ball.

The durability is great and all, but what I focused on when I made my decision was the numbers which show how the player got to his final stats last season, mainly BABIP. Last year, Votto hit a very respectable .322 over the entire 131 games he played, which is one of the major selling points by guys drafting him this year. But while he did that, he hit an astonishing .372 on balls in play. That kind of a number is only seen by guys like Michael Bourn, who have tremendous speed. Votto certainly does not fit that category, so its almost a guarantee for him to hit a lower number next year and cause the average to drop. On the other side, Gonzalez hit a reasonable .278 on balls in play, which is very reasonable since he hit .277 over the course of the season. As long as he evens out to accepted average of .300, he could see a healthy rise, especially if he finds his way out of the hit destroyer that is Petco Park. Finally, a look at Adrian's BB-to-K ratio shows just how much the Padres lineup is hurting him as it jumped from .52 to 1.09, showing a patient hitter waiting for pitches he would get in most lineups.

So, when your leaguemates turn to you, waiting for you to go up to the board and record your pick, get up, put on your best Sly Stallone impression and yell "Adrian! Yo Adrian!"

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings #11-20

Here are the next 10 guys that I am targeting in 2010. Let me know what you guys think.

11. Evan Longoria 3B, Tampa Bay Rays- This guy was flat out mashing to start the year last season, with 12 HRs and a .327 average through May. He slowed down after a minor hamstring injury in June, but the guy still ended up with tremendous numbers, especially from the 3B spot. Throw in the fact that he did this at the ripe old age of 23 and that's a player I'd love to get at the turn in my draft.

12. Tim Lincecum SP, San Francisco Giants- If I wasn't so sure that he was some sort of superhuman being I would expect this guy to just fall apart one day with how fast he throws and how small he is. But, he has proven everyone wrong so far, so why prove me right? Lincecum is the #1 SP hands down, and if you feel comfortable taking a pitcher this early Lincecum is not a bad choice. However, don't go reaching for him in the top 8 like I've seen in some mocks, pitchers can only contribute in 4 categories and have a much bigger risk factor allocated to them.

13. Carl Crawford OF, Tampa Bay Rays- Four years ago, if you had asked me how many Tampa Bay Devil Rays would be in the top 2 rounds of this year's draft I'd have bet my left foot on zero. Last year, Crawford showed just how great he can be by contributing in all five categories and dominating the SB column. Even if he doesn't improve, as long as there isn't a major drop-off, Crawford is a definite top round pick.

14. David Wright 3B, New York Mets- Even after the tremendous down year that Wright had last year, he still put up mediocre stats. There aren't many players out there who can say that. With the amount of talent this guy has, its hard to argue against using a top pick on him. I know I'm probably dooming myself with this comment but look for the Mets to make a bit of a bounce back in the right direction, starting with the big guy at the hot corner.

15. Matt Holliday OF, St. Louis Cardinals- What's not to like with this guy? He hits behind the best hitter in baseball, he has a proven track record of putting up huge numbers (even outside of Coors) and he drops easy pop-flies. Alright so maybe the last one isn't a good thing, but that's why we don't have fielding in fantasy, it's no fun.

16. Jacoby Ellsbury OF, Boston Red Sox- There aren't many players in this game who can help you win a category single-handedly, Jacoby is one of them. He led the league in steals, by a pretty wide margin, and got tons of hits and runs. There's no reason to think he will slow down, so I'm buying Jacoby.

17. Justin Upton OF, Arizona Diamondbacks- I'm probably never going to get this guy in a draft, despite the fact that I think he is going to blow down the doors on this season. People are moving him up into the end of the first round, and I am just not prepared to take him there. He is a 22 year old masher, but he is still too inexperienced for me to bet big, there have been way too many players who have turned around and flopped after a season like Upton's 2009.

18. Troy Tulowitzki SS, Colorado Rockies- Any time the Rockies unload their best hitter, like Holliday last year, there will always be someone to step up and be a terrific fantasy player. Even a little league team that spent 81 games in Coors would have someone put up a 90/20/90 line. Tulowitzki is that guy, and the best part is that he is a shortstop, a position severely lacking power. The man named Troy will put up a 20/15 line on one leg, and if you can get that from a SS, do it.

19. Ian Kinsler 2B, Texas Rangers- Another young, middle infielder, playing in a great hitter's stadium. He will probably put up a line very similar to Tulo's, so if you were lucky enough to land Hanley in the 1st, you can lock up the double play combo with a great 2B.

20. Joe Mauer C, Minnesota Twins- This is the guy everyone is arguing where he should go. Ranging anywhere from the 1st-3rd rounds, Mauer has been seen going off the board as a star or a quality backstop. I think he should fall in the middle of where he's been going. Mauer will be the best catcher, a position where its hard to find a great hitter. Even after overcoming his initial injury last year, the king of the Twin Cities made teams shoot up in the batting average rankings. He will help your team no matter what, but don't overpay for a guy who will be mediocre in power numbers and run the risk of missing games at baseball's most physically straining position.