Player Snapshot: Mat Latos

Well ladies and gentlemen, its that time again. I am emerging from my mancave hibernation/ Packer Super Bowl Stupor to bring out the big stick. And this one has yet to be photographed by Brett Favre's cell phone. No, this big stick is made of maple or oak or cork... thanks to good ole Sammy Sosa. It's that beautiful time of year again, fantasy baseball season! No longer do we have to wait until Sunday to see how many points we will crush the competition by. We get to tally up a homer or two EVERY DAY. I mean, who doesn't love watching a longball on Sportscenter and saying to yourself, "yeah that's one for me baby!"

Unfortunately, this article isn't going to focus on homers. Instead, lets turn our attention to the land where home runs go to die, Petco Park. The only true offensive threat from 2010 is dawning new Sahx, but one man still stands tall in San Diego. Literally. Mat Latos is a 6'6", 225 pound man-beast. I saw him at a restaurant one time, and I instinctively cowered a little. And I'm 6'5". Imagine what it would feel like to be staring him down knowing that he is aiming a 95 MPH projectile in your general direction. I guess that's why you only need to succeed 3 out of 10 times as a hitter to be a Hall-of-Famer.

But I digress, sure the guy is an imposing figure on the mound, but what makes him such a contender for all of my fantasy teams this year? His potential. I mean, Mat probably still has to get carded to buy cigars but he set an MLB record with 15 straight starts with 5+ innings and 2 or less earned runs. In other words, barring an incredible collapse, this dude should be a stud.

Don't believe me? Let's look back at last year's campaign and delve into the numbers a bit:

184 IP:
Normally you have to worry about young arms being held back. However, given the firesale Jed Hoyer is putting on, who stands in Latos' way of 200+ innings?

2.92 ERA:
If it hadn't been the "Year of the Pitcher" this type of figure would have set off major alarms across the country. Playing in Petco with either an improved or somewhat similar defense behind him almost assuredly keeps it in the sub- to low-3.00 territory.

189 Ks:
More innings should mean more Ks. Plus, a major rule to follow when drafting pitchers is, "they can always fall back on strikeouts". Even if his ERA were to float up a little, you can undoubtedly hang your hat on 190 Ks.

9.21 Ks/9:
Just in case you needed more proof.

.78 HRs/9:
Do you hear that? That's all of us Padre fans weeping with joy... and a little bit weeping because we have a ballpark that results in zero fun.

 Those are some eye-popping digits. Sure his BABIP of .273 might signal a bit of luck falling on Mr. Latos' side, but with the ballpark and defense he has behind him its not out of the picture that his BABIP will naturally be lower than the league average. Either way, I see Latos as being a high-quality pick in upcoming fantasy drafts, and he will certainly have a 6'6" star next to his name on my draft sheet.

Player Snapshot: Austin Jackson

I haven't posted much recently because, well, I don't really like to start anointing guys as the next coming of Pujols after a single series. If the Phillies got to play the Nationals everyday Ryan Howard would probably end the season with his current .400 average and probably break the home run record by a good 20 dingers. Nevertheless, we all know that 3 games do not make a season, so we should temper our puppy love for the early fantasy studs. But, as I say that I don't like to make judgments after a fast start, I'm here to talk about a guy I do like after his first 3 games, Austin Jackson.

While his numbers, outside of his average, do not really jump out at you (2/.333/2/0/0) I am very intrigued by the fact that his 5 hits are composed of a single, 3 doubles and a triple. His impressive slugging percentage, .667, has come in a ballpark that is only rivaled by Petco Park and Progressive Field in terms of its lack of home runs. Not only has he been hindered by the park he visited, but he had to face the ace that is Zack Greinke, as well as bat in front of Johnny Damon, who is on a very cold streak. Each of these conditions has held Jackson's production down a bit, and he is still excelling for a rookie.

What I like most about the young Tigers CF are the non-statistical characteristics. For instance, in order for Detroit to trade away a proven star like Curtis Granderson, they had to have been expecting a healthy amount of talent in return. While Max Scherzer is a quality prospect, Jackson was the star of the deal, and since their scouts probably know more about prospecting than me I will take their word that he is worth Grandy. Despite the fact that Damon has been so cold in these first few games, he still gets to hit in front of run producers like Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen, meaning that as long as he continues to get on there is a very good chance of him scoring.

Now back to his stats, and since he hasn't played in majors I'll focus on his minor league numbers as indicators of what he can do. Jackson's homer totals might not break into double digits this year, or anytime soon for that matter, but he can be a major producer in runs, as stated above, and stolen bases, as witnessed at the AAA level. Last year he swiped 24 bags, a pretty impressive number and he is still only 23, so he has fresh legs. He's also one of the only people in the Detroit who has a healthy amount of speed, so if Leyland decides to be a bit daring and run, look for him to turn to Jackson to get the steal.

I really like what I've seen so far this year out of Jackson, and his pedigree says that he should be able to keep up a pretty healthy pace throughout the season. But before you go dropping Carlos Quentin for AJax, make sure that you temper your expectations a little and wait a bit. If you are in the market for a guy who can hit .290, steal 25 bases and score 90 runs, I think Jackson could really be your guy.

Player Snapshot: Gordon Beckham

In a standard 12-team roto draft, with only one catcher, there are two positions that I would consider truly scarce, and both reside in the infield: 2B and 3B. Many would argue that shortstop is another position with a small talent pool, but with quality young players like the Escobars (Yunel and Alcides) and speedsters like Elvis Andrus and Everth Cabrera, I don't mind waiting a bit before picking a SS. But I digress. Back to the other two lineup spots. As the draft progresses and it starts to get down to the nitty-gritty, real question marks start to pop up about players at these two spots. Thats why securing studs at these positions will cost you. But what if, by some miracle, there was a quality player who could fill both of these postions, in case your stud gets injured and you need a replacement? What if there was a guy that could play 4 positions, if your league has CI and MI spots, is only 23 and has shown tremendous signs of being a major league star? Well that would sure be nice, but Ben where could I ever find a deal this good? Well he is sitting in the South side of Chicago, just waiting to be snatched up in the 8th round of average fantasy drafts.

After being selected with the 8th pick in the 2008 draft, Beckham shot through the ranks, spending only 7 games in AAA in 2009 before being called up to "the show". Over the 103 games he got to play last year, he put up very respectable numbers for a rookie, and even contended for ROY honors. Had he played the whole season at the same rate, Beckham's numbers would have probably come out looking something like this: 91/22/99/.270/11. Those are quality for an outfielder, let alone a guy who played 3rd base. Now, here's the kicker, while maintaining his 3B eligibility from last year, the White Sox will move him to second to start the season, letting fantasy owners move him there or to the MI spot after whatever amount of games your league requires. That is the key to Beck's value this year. You can now get corner infielder-type power numbers from a middle infielder and open up your CI spot for another slugging first baseman. As long as you can secure some steals at one of the other MI slots and a few of your outfielders, Beckham can be a real driving force for any team, as he produces quality power numbers from a position where it is rare.

While I think Gordon is going for a fair value in the late 80s, I am in love with his combination of position eligibility (as if you couldn't tell). When a good portion of leagues only allow weekly lineup changes, having someone who can jump around when another guy has a bad week of matchups, or a small amount of games, really pays off. Gordon Beckham is a very useful player, with a very high ceiling. He can be a quality player on any team, and who doesn't want that.

Player Snapshot: Clayton Kershaw

I live in LA right now, and while stuck in the hideous traffic that inhabits this city I turned on sports radio to hear what was going on in the world, or at least stuff that I would care about. The topic for the day: What chance do the Dodgers have at winning a World Series this year? This of course led to the string of Dodger homers calling in and saying what every fan says about their team, "we got this in the bag" and the ever famous, "this is our year". But one comment that really struck me was one talking about Clayton Kershaw. The guy was talking about how missing on Halladay was ok, because they had Kershaw who was ready to become an ace of their rotation, despite being 21. I thought ok, I guess that makes sen... 21?! Now, I knew that Clayton was young, and I knew he had talent, but I mean the guy is exactly 1 year and 2 days older than me. This might have been more of an personal crisis as a player outside of the NBA was just about my age, but it still caught me off guard just how young Clayton really is. So I decided to sit down and break down my contemporary as to what his season might look like.
Last year, Kershaw's numbers were out of this world. 185 Ks, 2.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8 Wins. Wait 8 wins? That can't be right. This guy made me do two double takes. Now that is a feat in itself. All of the stats behind this guy make it seem like he is the guy who will challenge Lincecum for Cy Young Awards for the rest of their careers, but 8 Wins? Ill touch on that in a bit, but let's take a look at some other stats of his from last year. He posted a great 2.03 K/BB ratio, which is big in the NL where every runner counts, and brought his HR/9 down from .92 to .37. That means if he threw 3 complete games, the other team might only see 1 homer. That's unheard of in the age of steroids. The only stat which will hurt him this year is the BABIP, which was already under the league average, in part due to a great defense behind him, but with the loss of Orlando Hudson and Manny sitting in left, I don't think he will be so "lucky". But that is only one stat. I mean the guy was a monster last year at age 20!
Alright, so about that whole wins thing. Now, on my lowly Padres I would understand a guy putting up those numbers and only winning 8 games (just look at Jake Peavy's early years), but Clayton's on a playoff team. It makes no sense. According to fangraph's pitch type analysis, the three pitches he threw most last year (fastball, curveball and slider), all increased his team's chance to win. He also added 2.94 to the probability the Dodgers would win. To put that in perspective, Javier Vazquez put up a 2.41 in that category and won 15 games all while playing for a team that won 9 less games than Kershaw's Dodgers.
Clayton might not have the hottest girlfriend on the team (damn you Matt Kemp!) and he might not be the most intimidating pitcher in the world since he looks like he could get pulled over for not looking old enough to drive, but the guy can flat out pitch. He's gonna put up huge stats, and the wins will come, I guarantee it. So go out and get him for your team, especially if its keeper. And if you ever see Kershaw walking around LA offer to buy him a beer since most bartenders probably won't serve him.

Projection: 15-6, 190Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Player Snapshot: Ben Zobrist

I recently took part in a mock draft and came away feeling pretty confident. With the studly Matt Kemp, getting good value out of Greinke in the 4th round and being able to take a chance on Rajai Davis in the 20th, it felt good. But when I went back to look over my picks, one of them stood out, in a Lindsay Lohan type way, it was just sad. I took Ben Zobrist in the 5th round at pick 46. Some people would argue that I made a fair pick, but I'm really starting to second guess this guy. While everyone loves the underdog tale of a star emerging from the bench, I'm not ready to dub this guy a legitimate first 5 rounds guy. To his credit, Zobrist does play a shallow position in terms of talent and he showed his power capabilities in both 2008 and 2009, but that just isn't enough. It took him until he was 28 to show his stuff at the major league level, despite an impressive minor league career. He needs to show that last year's speed and average weren't just flukes, but instead the beginning of his break onto the scene. That's why I'm going to wait a year and see just what Ben is really made of before I make the same mistake I made in this mock.