Behind the Numbers: 3rd Round Starters

Think back to a draft you've done this year. Whether it be a quick mock, a draft with your buddies, or the $100,000 money league you play in every year. Now, think of the first 3 pitchers off the board. Lincecum, of course, followed somewhat closely by the new and improved NL version of Doc Halladay. Now who was third? This is where the consensus will stray. Was it the hat tilting, CC Sabathia? The diamond stuck in the Kansas City rough, Zack Greinke? Or was it the man who has been dubbed a king by middle-aged white men everywhere, Felix Hernandez? Each of these 3 pitchers has their own pitch as to why they should be the 3rd starter off the board in each and every league, and I am going to try and make sense of who the best of this trio actually is.

According to Mock Draft Central, the average order that these three go off the board is: CC at 30, Greinke at 31 and King Felix at 32. Now, my personal rankings look more like: Greinke, Felix and CC. The fine people at ESPN projected it to come out: Felix, CC and then Greinke. The combinations for how to rank these guys are endless. (Well actually there's only 6, but it seems like there's a bunch). So let's break down each aspect of their games, and see who should be at the top (or at least in third place) of your SP rankings.

ERA:
For guys in the offensively loaded American League, the only guy who put up a "normal" ERA number was Sabathia at 3.37. Meanwhile, Greinke and Hernandez were off the charts at 2.16 and 2.49 respectively. Sabathia's ERA should hover around that same number, since his career average is 3.62. Even Hernandez's figure seems somewhat repeatable, since the top aces in the league over the past few years has been around the 2.5-2.6 range, and Hernandez definitely has the stuff of an ace. Greinke is where the ERA department becomes dangerous. Last year, the Royals' star went out and hung a number so wicked that only steroid-era Clemens and vintage Pedro could compare with. What makes this even more amazing was that it was in the offensively charged AL, as well as a division that hosts 3 of the top 10 offensive ballparks, with his home at Kauffman coming in at number 5. Move him to Petco and we might have seen a sub-2.00 ERA. That's what makes him the most interesting in this group, in terms of ERA. While I think Greinke is a stud who will dominate, the odds of him repeating seem a lot lower to me. I decided to favor the repeatability of Hernandez's ERA over Greinke's, but only by a small margin. With that, the way they rank in terms of ERA looks like:
Hernandez (2.4), Greinke(2.40001)... Sabathia(3.25)

Wins:
While CC might fall far behind the other two starters in terms of ERA, this is where he separates himself. The Mariners have so much unknown within their lineup, that I can't tell whether they will put up enough runs to win games for Felix. There is no unknown, just losing, out in Kansas City, so this is where Greinke's major downfall is. That leaves Sabathia and his silver spoon, as he gets to go out and make all sorts of mistakes, only to have A-Rod or Teixeira make up for it. That's one of the perks you get when you trade in your soul for the New York bucks. Even though wins are the hardest stat to anticipate; with these guys they are fairly easy to predict how they will come out:
Sabathia(19), Hernandez(18/17), Greinke(16)

WHIP:
Very similar to the ERA category, all three of these guys will help to put up nasty WHIP figures. I really didn't see anything that stood out to make me think it would differ any this year. So, they rank something like this in 2010:
Greinke(1.10), Hernandez(1.11), Sabathia(1.16)

Ks:
Most people think that when you pick starters, this is the stat you should focus on, since most of the other categories vary from year to year. I am one of those that adhere to that doctrine. I like pitchers like Verlander and Lester because as long as they get a little more lucky, or a bit of extra defense, all of the other numbers will go down, where as a pitcher has to adopt a whole different pitch or motion to increase their K totals. Greinke ranked 3rd in the majors with his 242 Ks, but what was more impressive was his 9.5 K/9 ratio. Both Felix and CC put up great K numbers in similar innings, and should both get around 200-210 punchouts, which is a very respectable number. As a disclaimer, don't look at CC's 250 Ks in 08 and think that last year was a fluke. He logged 250 innings that year as the Brewers rode his hot streak and had him pitch just about every day, it seemed. The Yankees have no reason to ever wear him like that, so the 197 he put up last year seems a lot more reasonable. These three guys should finish out with numbers like these:
Greinke(240), Hernandez(210), Sabathia(199)

So with that said, looking at those numbers, I stand by the rankings I put in my intro. I like Greinke the best, since he will guarantee you Ks, and while his win numbers might be subpar, they are so unreliable that who knows, maybe he will win every start he makes. Of course the scores will all be 1-0, but whatever works. Along that same logic, I like Felix as my 4th ranked SP, since he is a young stud with great stuff. Of course, CC's no slouch, and if you want guaranteed Wins, you can't go wrong with a Bankee. I guess the best advice I can give is to wait. With these three guys being so comparable, and all having their own stud categories, I would sit and let my leaguemates make the tough decision and take the remaining player of this trio.

Behind the Numbers: Turning Doubles into Homers

Across leagues everywhere, Billy Butler is being picked in the 7th round of average 12 team drafts, making him the 13th 1B off the board. He is being drafted among the likes Carlos Pena and Derrek Lee. This is a first baseman who slugged only 21 homers, 93 RBIs and hits in the middle of a Royals lineup that is mediocre at best. Well if that's the case, why is he garnering such a high pick then? Well many people have come to the conclusion that young power hitters who have a high number of doubles in a season are destined to turn some of them into home runs as they grow into their big builds. After hitting 51 of them last year, it has become "fact" that Billy is destined to hit a handful more home runs in 2010. To figure out whether or not this assumption is true, I decided to take some recent data (going back to 2003) and see just how the rule of doubles growing into homers has acted over those 6 years. In order to qualify for the study, I wanted the players to be comparable to Butler and thus the player had to:

1.) hit 45+ doubles in a season.
2.) be 28 or younger in the season following the doubles season.
3.) have less than 15 SBs in the doubles season.
4.) play a traditional power position, defined by me as 1B, 3B or OF

Let me explain my rules real quick. #1 is self-explanatory, since that's number we are trying to study, and 45 was an elite doubles level during the period. #2 is to ensure that the player was still maturing as a hitter, and could potentially "grow" into his power. #3 helps to eliminate the guys who got the 2Bs as a result of their ability to leg a long single into a double, rather than the guys just missing a homerun because they didn't make it over the wall. Finally, #4 is probably the most disputable guideline, but I didn't want to clutter up the data with second basemen whose numbers would tell a completely different story due to their position.

After setting these regulations into place, I found 11 cases (5 1B, 5 3B and 1 OF) that fit the bill and compiled their HRs from year to year and their FB/HR% to balance out those hitters who might have had less at bats from one year to the next. With how much hype is surrounding the Royals' slugger, the results of my small study were fairly pedestrian. Overall, the average changes in HRs and HR/FB were +2.18% and +1.26, respectively. If you were to add those numbers to Butler's 2009 totals, you would only get 23-24 homers and a 13.2%. Those numbers are good, but not exactly starting 1B types of numbers, which is how he is being drafted. What surprised me even more was the fact that only 3 players saw an increase of 5 homers or more: Miggy Cabrera in 07, Adrian Gonzalez in 08 and Morneau last year.

So what does this mean for Butler in 2010? Temper your expectations. Sure, the doubles are probably a good indicator for an increase in home runs, but it doesn't necessarily mean that he is going to completely break out. Hell, 3 of the guys even saw decreases in their homer totals after a big doubles year. While Billy could realistically go out and hit 25-27 home runs this year, I wouldn't be banking on it as though its fact. The recent history has shown that doubles can be a very good indicator of a player's future, since the list holds top 3 round names like Cabrera, Teixeira, Holliday and Pujols, but it doesn't always mean that the player is destined for an amazing player right NOW. If you're in a keeper league, I would definitely recommend taking Butler and hoping his career blossoms like these stars, but make sure you stay realistic with just how many of those 51 doubles get over the wall this year.

Behind the Numbers: BABIP

I was going into high school at the time the World Series of Poker became a phenomenon, so needless to say the majority of my allowance went to poker nights with the guys (I wasn't exactly the best player in the neighborhood). But what I came to decide after watching the WSOP and sitting at the table, is that poker is a game of luck that can be helped by skill. On the other hand, baseball is a game of skill, which you can occasionally get lucky in. As Jimmy Fallon said in the masterpiece that is Fever Pitch, "you can either hit a curveball or you can't... you can have a lucky day, sure, but you can't have a lucky career". That's where BABIP comes in, we can help to decide when a player will even out and stop foolin' everyone.

For those who are new to this stat that doesn't show up on the back of baseball cards (if those still exit that is) BABIP stands for Batting Average on Balls in Play. It is usually considered to be the rating of a player's luck, as it shows how often he got to first after making contact, no matter where it went. So, if a player has an unusually high BABIP, with .300 being the average, then you can expect the player to be a little less "lucky" and get out on a few more of those balls in the long run. On the opposite end, a very low BABIP player can expect a bump up in total average, since he will get more hits on the pitches he puts in play. The exception to this rule, is that speedy players can expect a slightly higher BABIP, since he can beat out slow rollers, so I won't really focus on these exceptions in this article.

Ian Kinsler 2B, Texas Rangers (2009: .241 BABIP, .253 BA)

The Rangers' 2B saw a major dropoff in average last season, and it wasn't exactly unforeseen. After hitting .319 in his 121 MLB games in 08, Kinsler fell, largely in part to an absurdly high BABIP of .334.  While he may never hit .319 for a full season, Ian should be expected to make a U-Turn after the 2009 campaign and if he evens out to a .300 BABIP, could hit .280 to go along with his great power and speed numbers for a second basemen.

Jimmy Rollins SS, Philadelphia Phillies (2009: .251 BABIP, .250 BA)

For a guy who swipes 30+ bases every season, a .250 BABIP really stands out. Rollins is not exactly young, and is a career .270 hitter, but thats not why you pick him. Like Kinsler, Jimmy gives you great production in HRs, SBs and Runs from a position where all three of those are rare to see. The Philly SS should be able to see a small increase in his BABIP and, maybe move back up towards his career .274 mark. If that happens, he will be a quality player, which is a lot better than a lot of sites are projecting him to be.

David Wright 3B, New York Mets (2009: .394 BABIP, .307 BA)

For a guy who had one of the highest BABIP in the league, Wright really didn't have that unbelievable of a season. For those who took him in the first round last year were left dissapointed, despite the fact that he hit over .300. It was assumed that his power would follow and he would put up another potential 30/30 season, especially if he could it .300. However, Wright's power numbers fell far behind his batting average, and his BABIP makes it seem as though he might not make a complete turnaround. Wright has some speed, but nothing that garners this type of a number. If the Mets' 3B shows any slide in his BABIP, which is extremely likely, he would need to bring down his strikeout rate. If he does and finds his power, it could be a great season, but if he doesn't, 2010 could be a big disappointment. That's why Wright is one of the biggest boom/bust plays of the year and is only suitable for those who like to gamble.


Kevin Youkilis 1B/3B, Boston Red Sox (2009: .359 BABIP, .305 BA)
Youk is probably the strangest case when studying BABIP. When you think speed, the goateed Red Sox hitter doesn't exactly come to mind, but he has put up a career .334 mark in that category. So, from a quick glance at his BABIP number, it would be easy to assume that a decline in average is in store for 2010. That's not to say that his average has to drop, but it is not as likely as the numbers make it seem. Even if Youkilis drops to hitting in his career .290 range, that is still a good contributor to your team batting average number. Whether it is his pure hitting ability, or knack for finding a hole in the defense, Youkilis will certainly hit for a high average despite what his BABIP might say.

The BABIP number is like any other statistic; it is interesting on its own, but only helpful when you look deeper into the player. While the 2009 Kinsler showed us how it can help predict the future, guys like Youkilis show that sometimes the hitter isn't just "lucky" whenever more that 30% of their balls in play become hits.

Behind the Numbers: Votto vs Gonzalez

The 3rd round of your neighborhood draft rolls around to you. Your Yankee-homer friend Steve has already knocked back his fair share of brew and just picked Andy Pettitte, because "he's a winner". Thankfully, the rest of the guys in your draft are taking it seriously, so you've gotta buckle down. You've already got a speedy outfielder, and a high-quality middle infielder, but now you're looking for a good power hitter. You look down your list and see the top two guys who aren't crossed off are the slugger from Cincinnati and the soon to be ex-Padre Adrian Gonzalez. You know that they have been going off the board at around the same time in most mocks (Votto-30 and Gonzalez-31 according to Mock Draft Central's ADPs) So what do you do now?
Well I'll tell you what I would do, snatch up A-Gon even if he remains in sunny San Diego all year long.

First off, while Votto may seem like the up-and-comer in this situation, let's not forget the Gonzalez has yet to turn 28, so he has tons of good days in front of him despite what his 40 year-old face and 6 years of major league play may tell you. The two are fairly even in statistics as well, as Votto showed he could hit for a better average while Adrian will hit for more pop. They will both put up around the 100 mark in both RBIs and Runs, and neither is a real threat to swipe bags.

So what sets Gonzalez apart from Votto in my mind, you ask? Gonzalez's durability, but more importantly, the stats which lie underneath the ones that count in roto. What if I told you that there was a player who could put up the numbers of a high-quality first basemen all while playing 160 games in a year, is that something you might be interested in? If you didn't get that reference, please go buy Entourage now. Now watch all the seasons. Done? Ok good. You can now actually live life. Now back to the baseball. Votto is coming off a year where he missed 31 games, mainly due to stress. Now, I don't know about you but the first guy sounds a lot more secure than the one who had trouble with the pressures of major-league ball.

The durability is great and all, but what I focused on when I made my decision was the numbers which show how the player got to his final stats last season, mainly BABIP. Last year, Votto hit a very respectable .322 over the entire 131 games he played, which is one of the major selling points by guys drafting him this year. But while he did that, he hit an astonishing .372 on balls in play. That kind of a number is only seen by guys like Michael Bourn, who have tremendous speed. Votto certainly does not fit that category, so its almost a guarantee for him to hit a lower number next year and cause the average to drop. On the other side, Gonzalez hit a reasonable .278 on balls in play, which is very reasonable since he hit .277 over the course of the season. As long as he evens out to accepted average of .300, he could see a healthy rise, especially if he finds his way out of the hit destroyer that is Petco Park. Finally, a look at Adrian's BB-to-K ratio shows just how much the Padres lineup is hurting him as it jumped from .52 to 1.09, showing a patient hitter waiting for pitches he would get in most lineups.

So, when your leaguemates turn to you, waiting for you to go up to the board and record your pick, get up, put on your best Sly Stallone impression and yell "Adrian! Yo Adrian!"

Behind the Numbers: Prime Pairings

Going into a Ruth's Chris and ordering the biggest steak they have would be amazing. Pairing that glorious chunk of meat with a heaping glass of moldy milk will really spoil that experience. That's how I look at the first 3 rounds of my fantasy drafts. The 1st pick is designed to be the steak whereas the other picks are meant to be the wine you pair with it that will help to make a glorious meal that you can sit back and enjoy.
One of the goals I like to make is to target 75 HRs and 75 SBs within the first 3 rounds. With that in mind, these are some of the players I'm looking to pair with this year's 1st round picks (according to Mock Draft Central).

1. Albert Pujols - Grady Sizemore(2nd round) Pujols has a built in insurance policy which will get you 40 HRs and heaps of RBIs, Rs and an Avg out the roof. Sizemore uses these tools well. He will help to boost your steals numbers, contribute some more power and will provide you with good value as people pass over his mediocre BA, which you can afford to absorb.
2. Hanley Ramirez- Dustin Pedroia/Ryan Zimmerman (3rd) If you can seal up two of the shallower positions in the first 3 rounds I call that a win. If you pick Pedroia the next pick wold be a quality 1B or OF who can hit for power, whereas Zimmerman would go with an OF with speed.
3 & 4. A-Rod/Chase Utley- Jimmy Rollins/Jose Reyes (2nd) This goes along the same lines as the Hanley line, only in reverse. You get the power guy in the 1st and couple it with some speed, while filling two difficult positions.
5. Ryan Braun- Carl Crawford (2nd) Even though they play the same position, these guys work together well Braun provides the pure power and Crawford the pure speed. Pair them with a 20/20 guy in the 3rd and you'll be on the right track.
6 & 8. Mark Teixeira/ Prince Fielder- Jacoby Ellsbury (2nd) Both of these guys will have very similar lines, high HRs and no sign of speed. But that will be fine as long as you pick up a guy like Jacoby in the 2nd the stats will balance out in the end, at a very high level i might add.
7. Matt Kemp- Justin Upton (2nd) Kemp and Upton would make for an excellent start as they both will contribute heavily in all five categories. Kemp will provide more SBs and Upton will help to up the HRs. They may play the same position, but they do it well.
9. Evan Longoria- Ian Kinsler (2nd) Same story as the A-Rod/Utley/Hanley pairs. You'll get a high HR/SB total, good production in every other category and two tough positions filled.
10. Ryan Howard- Ichiro (3rd if you can get him there) Ichiro would be the perfect pair for the big Ryno. They contribute where the other person lacks. You'll end up with an even line, which is what you should be shooting for in roto.
11. Miguel Cabrera- Ian Kinsler (2nd) I know I recommended him for Longoria, but he actually fits a little better here. Whenever I get someone with a high BA, I look to find a guy who hits for a lower average but contributes elsewhere. Cabrera's overwhelming number of hits makes it easier to absorb Kinsler's lower number and get you great 4-cat production at 2B.
12. Tim Lincecum- David Wright (2nd) If I were to ever reach for a pitcher in the 1st round it would be here at the turn with Lincecum. It is a given that he will dominate. My next pick would have to be someone I could count on to provide all sorts of production. That's why I'd stick with someone like Wright. Even in his down year last season, he still got owners a high BA and a fair amount of HRs and steals. He has nowhere else to go but up, so if I can get vintage David Wright in the 2nd with the complete pitching package in the 1st I will be happy.

So there are my picks for pairs. If you have any thoughts don't be afraid to comment. I'd like to know I'm not just talking to myself.