Breakout Player of the Year: Malcolm Floyd

Before you read about the next star wideout, make sure you enter the cash contest here: http://www.fantasysportscircle.com/2010/08/fantasy-football-naming-contest-win.html

To preface this post, let me just say that although I may have grown up in San Diego I am far from a Charger homer. So don't start giving me the, "Oh you just love the new go to Charger" treatment. As a matter of fact, I could not dislike Philip Rivers much more if he started throwing puppies instead of footballs one practice. But as I watch the preseason games for the Bolts this year, I can't tell you how high I am on Malcolm Floyd this year. Hell, even Ricky Williams couldn't explain how high that is. Let's break down the situation a little and I'll show you why he deserves much better than his 103.30 ADP in standard leagues.

First, the physical statures of these guys are nearly identical. Sure VJax has a few more lbs on him to help move defenders around, but Floyd possesses the height that Philip Rivers loves. Speed is a wash as both ran in the 4.4s at their respective combines. They each have spent multiple seasons with the San Diego squad, eliminating any problems with routes or plays.

So what has separated these players in the past? One word: situation. While Floyd struggled for targets as a deep threat, Jackson was Rivers' first choice if Antonio Gates was blanketed by the D. Now that reports are flowing in that Jackson won't play a single down in a Charger uniform, Floyd instantly shoots to the top of their depth chart, increasing his worth tenfold. After watching the most recent preseason game, my suspicions seemed to be proven as Rivers turned to Floyd as though his former number one had never even left.

That's how I see this situation unfolding. If you decide to take a chance on the new Chargers WR1, you will draft a guy who wears a different number, but puts up the same numbers as Vincent Jackson. And in fantasy, isn't that what its all about.

My Final Prediction:
88 Catches, 1160 Yards, 9 TDs. In other words, go get him now.

20 Last Minute Predictions

The MLB season will kick off with a bang on Sunday with the biggest baseball rivalry being rekindled in Boston. So once you p-ahk your self in your wicked comfy recliner to watch the S-ahx play them damn Yankees, the first pitch will be thrown and all of this preseason work constructing our teams will finally pay off. Hold that thought though, I decided I'd sit down and lay out some last minute predictions for the 2010 season. So bookmark this page and bring it up at the end of the season when I miss on all of them.

1.  David Wright will hit the 25/25 again. The Mets will still suck though.
2.  Tommy Hanson will finish in the top 5 of NL Cy Young voting.
3.  Roy Halladay will end up winning the award.
4.  Rajai Davis will swipe 50 bases. Rickey Henderson said so. That makes it fact.
5.  After hitting .275, Jay Bruce will cement himself as the 5th hitter in the Reds lineup and become a 3rd round pick in 2011.
6.  Max Scherzer will strikeout 200 in his first real major league season.
7.  Despite his impressive Spring, Stephen Strasburg will underwhelm when he makes it to the majors.
8.  Adam Laroche will have 84 articles written about how good he is after the All-Star Break and his trade value at that point will be completely unreasonable.
9.  One of the three main Padres sleepers (Everth Cabrera, Chase Headley and Kyle Blanks) will emerge as a fantasy mainstay for years to come.
10.  Brandon Wood will not breakout. Again.
11.  Jason Frasor will save 30+ games.
12.  Manny Ramirez will hit the most homers out of any Dodgers outfielder.
13.  Josh Hamilton will redeem himself, and remind people why he was a top-30 pick last year.
14.  Milton Bradley will end up on the DL due to some ridiculous cause. (Vegas has 3:1 odds on the incident involving a "lazy susan")
15.  Barry Zito will become fantasy relevant this year.
16.  Kendry Morales will be a top 5 first baseman in next year's drafts.
17.  The AL Rookie of the Year will go to Brian Matusz after winning 15 games for a mediocre Orioles team.
    
18.  Justin Morneau will drive in 120 runs again.
19.  A minor league team will follow through on the Tim Lincecum bobblehead idea and use real hair to emulate one of their players.
20.  Colby Rasmus will be the year's best comeback sleeper, hitting 20 homers and swiping 15 bags.

Well there you have em, I wish everyone the best of luck in this year's fantasy season. Unless your in my leagues that is.

WFS: NL East

This is the last edition of a series of articles I will be writing, where I pick out three players in each division of the majors and tell you whether I think they will be a Win, Fail or Sleeper in the 2010 campaign. The Win player will be a high pick (1st 5-6 rounds) that I think will reward you with quality, if not excellent production. The Fail player will be one who, you guessed it, will fail to meet expectations, and the sleeper is self explanatory.


Win: Ryan Zimmerman 3B, Washington Nationals (ADP: 34.84)
Let's play a quick game of which third baseman would you rather have!

Player A 2009 Stats: 100/33/113/9/.281, 24 Years Old
Player B 2009 Stats: 110/33/106/2/.292, 25 Years Old

Seems pretty even. Now what if I said that the Player B could be had 2 full rounds later in your draft? Well that would certainly make the lack of 7 SBs seem like a pretty minuscule difference. That's what happens when guys like Evan Longoria (aka Player A) get on the cover of MLB 2K10 and Ryan Zimmerman gets hidden in Washington. This ADP discrepancy is derived more from Zimmerman's anonymity than Longoria's stardom. Both of these guys should be early second rounders, since they provide elite power numbers from a position that is very shallow. I mean the fact that some people have to start Chipper Jones should give you some urgency to draft a third baseman early. There's really no statistics that point to a regression from Zimmerman, so he should make a real steal in the 3rd round.

Fail: Carlos Beltran OF, New York Mets (ADP: 93.62)
When I started sifting through the ADPs of the players in the NL East, I figured with the Mets and Nats both residing here that this would be the easiest portion of the article to fill. Amazingly enough, I found the majority of the guys on these bad, bad teams to be going right about where they should. In the end it came down to Beltran, Jose Reyes and Johan, three injury prone guys from the same team. I decided to leave Reyes alone since there is still so much unknown with his condition, and say what you will about Johan, but he was still pretty impressive last year in limited play. That left me with Beltran, who still played a relatively good game in 2009, but his age and position scare me. When guys who will give you guaranteed numbers are going nearby (see: Ibanez, Raul and Hunter, Torii) it is hard to justify spending a pick on Beltran when he might only play half the season. Even if he were to play the whole year, you could argue that playing in CitiField would only make his numbers fairly even with the aforementioned guys who don't come with so much risk. Beltran was a total stud back in his Royal days, but I just don't see him being in the shape that he needs to be to warrant a 10th round pick. Go with one of the younger guys on the upswing in their careers, like McLouth and McCutchen and leave the injury risk for another owner.

Sleeper: J.A. Happ SP, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 259.92)
It would be really easy to take advantage of the fact that Mock Draft Central has Jason Heyward with an ADP of 205.46, and I have too much respect for you guys to do that to you. Instead, I'm going to go with one of the big surprises from last year, who still isn't getting much love. J.A. Happ is moving permanently into the rotation of one of the best teams in baseball, behind a guy so intelligent in the game that they nicknamed him Doc. While Happ's win total and ERA were out of this world, his K rate left something to be desired. What makes this okay though, is that he posted a very impressive 10.07 K/9 in his final AAA year before being called up. He has shown he can strike out a hefty amount of batters, so as he gains more experience his major league total should rise as well. There's really no doubt in my mind that his ERA will come back down to Earth, since its pretty hard to improve on 2.93 without being an ace. But, while that number goes down, his win total should go up to somewhere in the 15-17 range, since he has such a high powered offense behind him. If you are like me and save a few slots towards the end of your rotation for sleeper starters there aren't many other guys in the 250 range that I would pick over Happ and his potential.

WFS: AL East

This is the fifth edition of a series of articles I will be writing, where I will pick out three players in each division of the majors and tell you whether I think they will be a Win, Fail or Sleeper in the 2010 campaign. The Win player will be a high pick (1st 5-6 rounds) that I think will reward you with quality, if not excellent production. The Fail player will be one who, you guessed it, will fail to meet expectations, and the sleeper is self explanatory.

Win: Curtis Granderson OF, New York Yankees (ADP: 51.05)
I wrote in the AL Central Article about how Johnny Damon would not be a good fantasy option now that he had left Yankee Stadium for Comerica Park. Granderson made the exact opposite move this offseason despite the fact that the two outfielders were not traded for one another. While Damon will lose the easy lefty homers that the New York stadium couldn't hold. Granderson, on the other hand, will have a number of his long fly balls to left field be turned into homers. Combine that with the fact that he hit 30 homers and swiped 20 bases last year, and you have a player who could very easily go 35/25. There are some minor questions regarding RBIs and runs, but playing in the most high-powered offense in the AL removes a lot of those doubts. The major knock on the Yankees' CF is his average, which was an abysmal .249 in 2009. While this makes him a major liability in roto leagues, there are definite reasons to expect a turnaround in that category. First off, he is a career .272 hitter, including last year's stats which drag the number down. Granderson also hit .275 on balls in play, which while only somewhat lower than average, is a significant low for a guy with the kind of speed that he possesses. As long as he can be a bit more "lucky" when he makes contact, Granderson should hit somewhere in the .270-.280 range, making him very comparable to Grady Sizemore, except 2-3 rounds later.

Fail: Brian Roberts 2B, Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 48.67)
Roberts had begun to slip in drafts due to his highly-publicized back issues, but as he seems to recover he has moved back into the 4th round. Roberts is definitely a legit 2B starter, but he is being drafted among the likes of a few players I would much rather have. Guys like Cano, Hill and Zobrist are all going around the same draft slot, despite the fact that they possess power, an attribute that is rare at their position. Cano hits behind some of the best hitters in baseball, Hill had an unbelievable year hitting 36 homers and Zobrist hit 25/15 and has outfield eligibility. Meanwhile, Roberts is only a minor power threat, who can steal somewhere in the 30 SB range, however, with his speed numbers slumping even 30 seems like it could be a stretch. Steals are abundant in the OF, and can be found much later on, whereas homers and RBIs are much harder to find, especially at second. Even if Roberts plays the entire season with limited pain and missed time, he still might not match the numbers of other comparable 2Bs, so why take the chance?

Sleeper: Jeff Niemann SP, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 214.85)
A lot of the guys I have selected throughout these WFS columns have ended up being 27, without picking them for that reason. Well, Niemann is yet another one of those guys entering the year that many people believe is the best bet for a breakout season by a player. Niemann already showed last year that he can survive in the Murderer's Row that is the AL East, going 13-6 with a very respectable 3.94 ERA. While his K rate (6.23 per 9) was less than stellar, he has shown an ability to post big strikeout numbers in the minors, so he may increase his total with a little experience under his belt. He also saw his K/9 number shoot up throughout the season, a sign of his experience kicking in.
He plays for a great team, playing together for one of the last times as baseball's "highest bidder" mentality will rob them of some of their free agents. With that motivation, he could very well post the same type of wins total. I don't really expect his ERA and WHIP numbers to come down that much, but they were respectable to begin with, for a late round sleeper pick. There really isn't much risk that comes with these picks, so taking a chance on a guy who could improve on numbers like Niemann's would make a great steal as  a starter to round out your rotation.

Koooooouz!

The last few times that I was dragged to a Padre game to watch the franchise I once loved, I couldn't help but fall into a bit of a stupor watching each friar go to the plate only to walk back to the dugout after a few failed swings. During these zoning out times, there was usually one thing which broke me from the trance, when Kevin Kouzmanoff came to the plate. While he might not have been the best player on the team, the stadium would erupt with a loud, "Koooooooouz" as he walked up to the plate. It was nice to finally feel some life from the stands, even if it resulted in a strikeout about a quarter of the time. That's why I was a little teary when I heard the news that we had shipped him off to Oakland to man third base there. While it might make Padre games a little less exciting, if that was possible, the move makes Kouzmanoff a very intriguing pick for fantasy baseball this year.

Normally a guy who hit 18 homers, .255 and amassed a whopping 1 stolen base doesn't show up on the radar for fantasy purposes, especially in mixed leagues. While the Coliseum may not be the most hitter friendly park, it is a HUGE improvement over Petco Park, pictured above and better known as "the place where offense goes to die". Normally, the stats I put before would justify him not being selected in 85 percent of mock drafts, but the fact that Kouz is in a new stadium, combined with his road stats from last year and the power he showed at home that could lead to a breakout season in 2010.

First, let's look at his road numbers to help us get a glimpse at what he might be able to do once he escapes the downer that is known as being a Padre. To give you an example as to just how much he struggled at home, he had a BABIP of .247, compared to a more reasonable .317 away. Overall, in 69 games on the road, Kouzmanoff hit a very respectable .287 with 31 runs and 52 RBIs. Those are very good stats for a guy you can find on the waiver wire, especially at one of the weaker positions this year. Combine those numbers with the fact that he was able to hit 9 HRs at Petco, to emphasize his pure power, and that could lead to a line that looks something like this: 75/25/90/.277. With those kinds of numbers, the new A's 3B could really outperform guys being selected before him, like Troy Glaus or even his replacement, Chase Headley.

Even with all of these positive indicators for Kouzmanoff's performance outside of America's Finest City, I would never recommend to start Kouzmanoff. However, he is definitely someone to place on your watch list, or pick up as a backup option in case you missed out on studs like Longoria or Zimmerman, or even as the injury replacement for other starters like A-Rod or Wright. At the very least, you will be able to yell "Kooooouz" when he comes up to the plate, who doesn't want to do that?

WFS: AL West

This is the second edition of a series of articles I will be writing, where I will pick out three players in each division of the majors and tell you whether I think they will be a Win, Fail or Sleeper in the 2010 campaign. The Win player will be a high pick (1st 5-6 rounds) that I think will reward you with quality, if not excellent production. The Fail player will be one who, you guessed it will fail to meet expectations, and the sleeper is self explanatory.


Win: Kendry Morales 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (ADP: 52.60)
When Mark Teixeira left for the holy land of baseball where money flows like the river of chocolate in Willy Wonka, the people of LA were not all that sad. Why wouldn’t they mourn the departure of one of the best young sluggers in baseball? There was a masher waiting to get a chance at a full time starting role waiting in the wings. After hitting .341/.376./.543 in the minors in 2008, many people saw big things coming from the monstrous Cuban in 2009. While he put up fairly good numbers throughout the first few months, Morales caught fire in the 2nd half, while capturing the August AL Player of the Month putting up a flat out nasty line of .385/22/10/33. If he did that every month, he’d even have Pujols bowing down at his feet. Now, I am in no way recommending that Morales be picked number one, or even in the first 3 rounds. What I am saying is that if you are in a position where you can choose between Utley and Teixeira, you can afford to take the guy from the shallower position (Utley in this case) because guys who will put up great numbers at first are waiting in the middle rounds.

Fail: Brian Fuentes RP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (ADP: 114.19)
A player who is going in the 10th round in average drafts don’t really come with much expectations, but when it’s the 8th closer off the board (7th now with the Nathan injury), you are counting on him to put up major save totals. Fuentes was a major factor in the save column, and carried many roto teams to a high total in the category. Many would argue that Fuentes’ 48 saves in 2009 would justify him being a top closer no matter what, but there are just too many negatives facing him this year for him to be my top saves guy. First, enter Fernando Rodney. Pretty much every closer out there is battling with a setup man, but all Fuentes had to deal with while blowing his 8 saves last year was the 8th inning mainstay, Scott Shields. Next, Fuentes’ stats last season, outside of the saves were atrocious, and it was the year he moved OUT of Coors Field. In his first year in the red and white, all of his major underlying statistics (K/BB, HR/9, BAA) and even those that counted (Ks, ERA and WHIP) got much worse. Had a guy with closer potential like Rodney been in the picture, there would have been a much bigger chance that Fuentes would have been dethroned as the Halos’ closer. Now, mix both of these together with the fact that he is turning 35 and that ugly mixture is too much risk for a guy I’m hoping will carry my team in a statistic.

Sleeper: Rich Harden SP, Texas Rangers (ADP: 218.15)
My first instinct was to put Ben Sheets here, but I already did a writeup on him and a few other sleepers here. Instead, I moved to another injury prone pitcher in Arlington. Over the last few years, Harden has become known as one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy. Unfortunately, those times have been few and far between. Hopefully, the Rangers plan to skip a few of his starts to get him to the 180 IP mark. Combine that with the fact that Harden has posted a 9.35 K/9 ratio in his career, and he could put up around 190 Ks if their plan works, which would be a very impressive total from one of the last pitchers you will probably pick. If he can add to that impressive K total with his other career numbers, 1.24 WHIP and 3.39 ERA, he could be a very quality starter in the Rangers rotation and in your lineup, if he’s healthy of course (knock on wood).

WFS- NL West

This is the first edition of a new series of articles I will writing, where I will pick out three players in each division of the majors and tell you whether I think they will be a Win, Fail or Sleeper in the 2010 campaign. The Win player will be a high pick (1^st 5-6 rounds) that I think will reward you with quality, if not excellent production. The Fail player will be one who, you guessed it will fail to meet expectations, and the sleeper is self-explanatory.

Win- Manny Ramirez OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP: 66.27)-

Let's take a little flashback to the last time that Manny was playing for a contract. Oh what a beautiful time that was. After a pretty abysmal start in Beantown, Manny came to LA and the rest was history, bashing home runs left and right and making dreadlocks cool again. Last year came with a tremendous amount of pressure, while he tried to show that he could do the late season heroic the entire time. Of course, last season wasn't exactly remarkable as his campaign was stained with the prescription drug scandal and wrist injury. What makes me believe in him, though is that Manny is a pure showman and he wants the big bucks to show for it. This year, he will make a cool $20 million, and I'm sure he would love to get that sort of deal next year. Now, most people would say that there is nobody who will pay him since he is 37, off the "performance enhancers" and a complete defensive liability, but Manny will do everything in his power to change GMs minds with his bat. The great thing about fantasy, unless you play by different rules, is that we only care about the bat, and Manny swings a mean one. Despite missing over a third of last season, Manny finished with respectable numbers at the plate, and it has been well documented that he had a drop-off following the beaning he got on his wrist that he tried to play through. The wrist will not be a problem this year, and Manny will earn those precious dollars, because as everyone says, " that's just Manny being Manny".

Fail- Jorge de la Rosa SP, Colorado Rockies (ADP 195.16)-

Alright, so Jorge might not be at the top of anyones draft lists, but he is still being picked among the likes of young studs David Price and Clay Buchholz. He won 16 games last year, which was impressive, but even if the Rockies have another playoff worthy season, I don't see that repeating. Jorge's strikeout number was impressive, but the number that stands out to me was his pedestrian GB/FB rate. When about half of your starts come in a park like Coors, you can't afford to be putting the ball in the air. De la Rosa might give you a healthy strikeout total from a late pick, which would seem like a great quality of a late pick, but picking him could really wreck your ERA and WHIP if the ball starts falling in those giant gaps, or even worse, going out of the park altogether.

Sleeper- Chase Headley 3B, San Diego Padres (246.55)-

It might be my Padres homerism catching up with me, but this slot came down to Kyle Blanks and Headley. I do think Blanks will put up good numbers, but you can find an article on him just about anywhere, so I decided to go with the new 3B at Petco. With the departure of Kevin Kouzmanoff to Oakland, Chase takes over at the hot corner, which really helps his value. With how shallow the 3B position is in fantasy, finding someone to take a flier on can really pay dividends. Chase was a pure masher in the minors, and all signs pointed to him being a breakout in the majors. The last two seasons were somewhat dissapointing, but this season he should see some quality pitches, being surrounded by Gonzalez and Blanks in the lineup. Petco Park definitely hurts his value, but after posting a .305 average on the road, Headley showed what he can do with the bat, once he figures out his home field. What would make me think that he could turn it around at home? Well he hit more than half of his homers there, and it is hard to do worse than .208 in a place where you spend 81 games a year. Chase has a little bit of speed, which adds to his value, since SBs are hard to come buy at third, but I really expect a big jump in his batting production since he has the tools, and is only 26. So, whether he turns into a quality starter in the late rounds, or just trade bait to someone whose corner infielder goes down, a guy like Headley could really help.

Player Snapshot: Clayton Kershaw

I live in LA right now, and while stuck in the hideous traffic that inhabits this city I turned on sports radio to hear what was going on in the world, or at least stuff that I would care about. The topic for the day: What chance do the Dodgers have at winning a World Series this year? This of course led to the string of Dodger homers calling in and saying what every fan says about their team, "we got this in the bag" and the ever famous, "this is our year". But one comment that really struck me was one talking about Clayton Kershaw. The guy was talking about how missing on Halladay was ok, because they had Kershaw who was ready to become an ace of their rotation, despite being 21. I thought ok, I guess that makes sen... 21?! Now, I knew that Clayton was young, and I knew he had talent, but I mean the guy is exactly 1 year and 2 days older than me. This might have been more of an personal crisis as a player outside of the NBA was just about my age, but it still caught me off guard just how young Clayton really is. So I decided to sit down and break down my contemporary as to what his season might look like.
Last year, Kershaw's numbers were out of this world. 185 Ks, 2.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8 Wins. Wait 8 wins? That can't be right. This guy made me do two double takes. Now that is a feat in itself. All of the stats behind this guy make it seem like he is the guy who will challenge Lincecum for Cy Young Awards for the rest of their careers, but 8 Wins? Ill touch on that in a bit, but let's take a look at some other stats of his from last year. He posted a great 2.03 K/BB ratio, which is big in the NL where every runner counts, and brought his HR/9 down from .92 to .37. That means if he threw 3 complete games, the other team might only see 1 homer. That's unheard of in the age of steroids. The only stat which will hurt him this year is the BABIP, which was already under the league average, in part due to a great defense behind him, but with the loss of Orlando Hudson and Manny sitting in left, I don't think he will be so "lucky". But that is only one stat. I mean the guy was a monster last year at age 20!
Alright, so about that whole wins thing. Now, on my lowly Padres I would understand a guy putting up those numbers and only winning 8 games (just look at Jake Peavy's early years), but Clayton's on a playoff team. It makes no sense. According to fangraph's pitch type analysis, the three pitches he threw most last year (fastball, curveball and slider), all increased his team's chance to win. He also added 2.94 to the probability the Dodgers would win. To put that in perspective, Javier Vazquez put up a 2.41 in that category and won 15 games all while playing for a team that won 9 less games than Kershaw's Dodgers.
Clayton might not have the hottest girlfriend on the team (damn you Matt Kemp!) and he might not be the most intimidating pitcher in the world since he looks like he could get pulled over for not looking old enough to drive, but the guy can flat out pitch. He's gonna put up huge stats, and the wins will come, I guarantee it. So go out and get him for your team, especially if its keeper. And if you ever see Kershaw walking around LA offer to buy him a beer since most bartenders probably won't serve him.

Projection: 15-6, 190Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Guys I'm Buying: Dissecting ADPs

Alright so the title may make it seem like I'm entering the slave trade, or some other human trafficking, but remember the focus of this website people! Think about fantasy! Oh god that just sent you back to the human slave thing huh? Alright, well, once you get your mind out of that gutter, take a look at this list of guys that I think are going too low in mock drafts, so snag 'em now while they're still cheap!

Ichiro Suzuki OF, Seattle Mariners (ADP: 40.29)
With the abundance of power in the first round, finding a good speed threat in the first few rounds is a good idea. It is rare for players to have a higher batting average than this guy, but what makes him so invaluable is how many ABs he does it over. Ichiro is a lock for 200 hits, and that's the number which will carry your team. Those hits will help you offset guys like Mark Reynolds or Ryan Howard and allow you to pick up their great power stats without worrying about them ruining your BA column. The Mariners have started to reload offensively, and with the addition of Chone Figgins, Ichiro could drive in more runs and show off the power a lot of scouts and coaches say he secretly possesses. Ichiro is an extremely valuable asset to have, and getting him in the 3rd round is a steal in my opinion.
My Bold Prediction: 65/12/100/30/.325

Ian Stewart 2B/3B, Colorado Rockies (126.90)
The last few mock drafts I've done, Stewart hasn't gone anywhere near this spot. As a matter of fact, I was able to snag him in the 18th round in one. Ian is a masher at a position which does not have many. He plays two valuable positions and plays in one of the friendliest hitter's parks for half of his games. His downside, of course is his average, but hes coming out of a year with a low BABIP, he's only 24 and plays in a deep park with tons of gaps. While he may never come close to hitting .290, Stewart is one of those guys in the Ichiro column who will give you great power production from a shallow position and be complemented by a good average hitter.
My Bold Prediction: 80/25/85/10/.268

Corey Hart OF, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP 195.85)
Last year, Hart was one of the top 25 OFs and people expected him to explode onto the scene after a 20/20 season in 2008. The poor suckers who bought him in 09 had to watch as he went out and put up pitiful numbers, as he battled injury and went through a season-long slump. Oh... wait... I was one of those suckers. Its hard to bet on the same guy after he failed you the year before, but I like Hart to make a comeback. His power and speed numbers fell, but the guy is a physical beast, at the ripe age of 28 and has protection from two of the biggest power hitters in the game. If he can work his way up to the #2 spot where he started last year, and can bring back a little bit of the 2008 magic, I really like him as a last-round flyer for a consistent outfielder.
My Bold Prediction: 80/20/80/22/.270

Ben Sheets SP, Oakland A's (ADP 234.97)
When it comes to starting pitching there's a rule I like to follow. ERA and WHIP will fluctuate, wins are flukes but K's you can count on. I know Sheets' injury woes precede him, but the guy can rack up the strikeouts when he's healthy. I mean this guy had 264 in one year... 264! Throw in the fact that he is moving to one of the best pitchers parks and Big Ben could really do some damage. Now, I know that his ADP is very low in part because of his late signing, but if Ben can just show up for a majority of his scheduled starts, he could put up good numbers in every category. Sheets could very well spend the year on and off the DL, but if you can get him in the last round, a return to his old Brewers form could land you a solid pitcher to round out your staff.
My Bold Prediction: 11-6/150 IPs/140 Ks/3.80/1.25

My Sleepers for the Year

Most players agree that fantasy drafts are not won in the first few rounds, but rather in the middle to late rounds when value picks are made. When it comes to sleepers, I break them down into 4 categories. This year, I decided I would select one player from each of these classifications and target them in the middle rounds.

Undervalued- The idea of buying low is the key to... well, life. These players are seen for less than their talents would say they worth. This knock against the player is usually something that is hard to notice. Whether it is minimal coverage or an injury from a long time ago which people still think lingers, always target guys you think people are undervaluing so you can enjoy the spoils.
Matt Wieters- A lot of people would think that with the hype that surrounds Wieters, that he is a highly priced commodity. However, with an ADP in the 8-9th rounds, if Wieters were to come into the unbelievable talent that everyone believes he has, he could be a 5th round value hidden in the middle of your draft.

Emerging Stars- These players are definitely talented, but have only shown a bit of what they can do. Normally they will come in the form of 1st round MLB draft picks who have performed well, but just not off the charts.
Jay Bruce- This guy was projected to be a great pro, and made quite a splash in his first few games in the bigs. But Bruce really cooled down over the last year, while still putting up quality numbers. With how much raw power and hitting ability this guy has shown, I am willing to put some money on him busting out this season, and if he happens to end up giving me the same value as last year, I'll take it with my 11th rounder.

Post-Hype- These classifications might seem redundant, but these players are young players who everyone has given up on because of a bad season. These players' values are driven down by that value, but if you believe that it was just growing pains.
David Price- Yet another top pick who I believe is ready to explode. Price certainly underwhelmed last year, but it is hard to argue against a lefty with the pitches that he has in his arsenal. There is no reason why Price can't explode onto the scene this season and show everyone why they got so excited about him last year.

Bouncing Back- This is the section dedicated to veterans. Whether it is an injury or some other down year in terms of statistics, guys who fit this bill have shown a good season or two in the bigs, but scared owners off last season. If you are comfortable gambling on a recovery, then they will pay off huge if they can return to previous forms.
Carlos Quentin- Carlos really exploded in 2008, only to continue his injury woes in 2009 and missing the last half of the season. While that may be a downer, the stats he posted prior to the plantar fasciitis were impressive with the exception of his BA. But if a guy can generate that much power with a problem in his foot, there is definite talent there. Quentin would be a first 5 round pick if he hadn't been hurt, so jump on the commodity before it gets too hot.