It's December and mock drafts are already taking place throughout the web. The other day, I decided I'd try my hand at one, and I caught myself thinking, "what is wrong with me?" What would possess me to devote my time to practicing for something 5 months down the road. I'm not playing at Carnegie Hall. It's fantasy baseball. But it's a passion of mine, so here I am, breaking down ADPs for all of you wonderful fantasy fans.
3 Musketeers:
You might catch youself thinking, "Hey, there's 5 guys on this list. Is this guy stupid?" Well yes and no. But I can count. These guys don't have much in common with Athos or Portos, but instead the candy bar. Three Musketeers bars are highly underrated in my mind. Let's just say this, nougat definitely deserves to be used more often than it is. Just like these players.
Carl Crawford OF, Red Sox (Average Pick: 18.72)-
Crawford is on his way out of Tropicana and, it seems, in to Fenway. His power shouldn't go down very much -- it might even go up-- and as I wrote in the OF Rankings, it is shocking how little his speed paid off at home. Check out these numbers:
Home: 277 ABs, 17 SBs
Away: 323 ABs, 30 SBs
His power may go down a tick, but getting a .300, 50 steals, 15 homers, 100 runs and RBIs guy in the 2nd round is a steal.
Josh Hamilton OF, Rangers (41.64)-
History might signal a regression, but the world's batting champ is much better than his ADP indicates, mainly because he is heads above his peers. Let's run down the list:
Shin-Soo Choo- 20/20 sure, but neither of those compares to 32 homers and an average that can carry an entire team of Ryan Howards.
Jayson Werth- No support in the lineup, a fat new contract to sit and count.
Andrew McCutchen- A great talent, but let's face it how many times will the Pirates drive him in?
If those are my choices, I'm going Hamilton all day.
Chase Utley 2B, Phillies (60.51)-
This one is just absurd. Right now, Ian Kinsler is being picked 5 slots BEFORE Utley. Chase has a few injury problems, but I don't think Kinsler even knows how many games are in a season. I mean he's never been able to play in more than 140 of them. Utley is a 3rd round (or even better) talent, that is being selected in the 5th. That's like Black Friday all year round.
Josh Johnson SP, Marlins (91.48)-
Wins may never be a weapon in JJ's fantasy arsenal, that we all know. However, how in the world is a guy like Johnson being selected behind guys like John Danks and Trevor Cahill. Both are good talents, but Josh led the NL in ERA last year despite a relatively slow start. With his talents, Johnson is easily a top 15 starter, not the 25th best that he is being selected as.
Kevin Youkilis 1B (for now), Red Sox (139.91)-
Youk will probably see a spike in his value once Beltre inks his name on another team's dotted line. As a first baseman, Youkilis is a #1 option in most fantasy leagues, but once he earns 3B eligibility, he shoots up the positional rankings. With Adrian Gonzalez in town, not only will he have some great protection, but will get a slot at a very shallow position. That's something that is worth much more than a 11th round pick in 12 teamers.
The Nightclubs:
Don't worry, this is a baseball list, so Ben Roethlisberger and Plaxico Burress won't be anywhere near this Nightclub section. Now, I might be in the minority, but I just flat out don't get clubs. If you enjoy music that drowns out conversation, stuck up women and $12 drinks, that's good for you. I'm staying as far away from them, and these players as possible. Or at least until their prices go down.
Andre Ethier OF, Dodgers (Average Pick: 27.09)-
If you're an Ethier backer, I have one question for you: "What does he do that's so great?". 23 homers is nice, but you can find a lot more power than that in the early 3rd round. The 2 steals eliminates any hope for a 20/20 season, and 90/80 is not a very pretty number from the runs and RBI sectors. If he plays the entire season, he might reach 100/100, but I'm not willing to bet on that just yet. If I'm going to go outfield at this point, I'd much rather take an established force like Matt Holliday over Ethier. Plus, with the Dodgers stuck in financial limbo thanks to "The Divorce" who knows if good things are around the corner for the boys in blue.
Rickie Weeks 2B, Brewers (35.51)-
When I first saw this ADP, I assumed that there had to have only been like 3 drafts conducted. All of which were filled with only Milwaukee haters. Nonetheless, 87 drafts left Weeks going off the board as a late 3rd - early 4th round pick. Sure his power is nice, but who says 2010 wasn't a fluke, and if it is hitting .269 in a breakout year is nothing to write home about. I just can't justify the case for Weeks over potential studs like Uggla or even the aforementioned Utley.
Ryan Dempster SP, Cubs (80.51)-
I always felt bad for Dempster growing up, because I can only imagine life as a pitcher with a name so close to a trash receptacle. Of course, he is usually the one closing the lid, with 200+ punchouts. But, I just don't see the appeal here, with how many quality starters there are out there. The strikeouts are nice, but he will never be a truly complete pitcher. His ERA and WHIP are not terrible, but combined with a pathetic Chicago lineup behind him, the strikeouts are really the only value here.
Alfonso Soriano OF, Cubs (90.46)-
Really? Over Hunter Pence? Really? Both play for terrible teams, but who would ever side with the guy toeing the cliff of his career over the prized prospect who burst out the previous season. Flat out ridonkulous.
Ryan Ludwick OF, Padres (102.34)-
As a Padre fan, let me just say, with the departure of Adrian Gonzalez, STAY AWAY. Pitchers get a reprieve. But if their job is to swing a bat, like Ludwick, Petco will be the death of your fantasy team. With no protection from the big bang of Gonzo, the Padres' offense will sink even further (if that was possible). Ludwick might be talented, but anyone outside of Pujols will get eaten up hitting in the middle of this lineup.
Well my fingers are sure tired. If you like what you see here (or dare I say, disagree with me) feel free to contact me.
And make sure to bring all of your fantasy questions to the Personal Fantasy Help tab at the top!
Showing posts with label ADPs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ADPs. Show all posts
December 9, 2010
October 5, 2010
Fantasy Basketball ADP Battles
One of the comparisons I like to draw when it comes to fantasy drafts is grocery shopping. I know what you're thinking and no, its not the fact that grocery stores are said to be a great place to meet women. (And if thats the case, what fantasy leagues are you in?) But i digress. Fantasy drafts are like visits to the grocery store because its all about value. We have a limit for how much money we want to spend, and the goal is to get as much value as possible without going over budget. This analogy is pretty much literal for people in auction drafts, but it also works the same way for us, traditional snake drafters.
Say you walk down the cereal aisle and you know you need some fruity loops of some kind (sorry, the last thing I need is a copyright lawsuit). There are two choices that confront you, the generic or the name brand. The generic stuff tastes like cardboard, but is usually a buck cheaper, and you're all about value. Well today is your lucky day! You see that for some reason, the name brand stuff has dropped their price down to match the generic. That's the sort of situation I'm talking about in this post. With the current ADPs listed from MockDraftCentral, I have pointed out a few players who are going in nearly identical spots in the draft, despite one player tasting like cardboard.
(Sidenote: RotoTimes has a great tool to compare fantasy players. Just check it out here to see the stats comparisons that I make in this article in front of your own eyes.)
Al Jefferson (35.22) vs David West (36.67)
Both of these big guys are coming off of injury plagued seasons after high fantasy expectations in 2009-10. Wests' future looks bright with the return of CP3. Having the All-World point guard dishing him the ball, look for DWest's stats to make a generous jump. West might be on the way up, but Jeffersons' ceiling is higher. Not only is Big Al's autograph incredible, but he was an undisputed first round talent in most drafts last year. Throw in the fact, that he just moved into a much better situation with a much better point guard, in Utah. As long as he is able to play 90-95% of his games this year, he should get back into the 20/10 range, something West couldn't reach even in his younger days.
Aaron Brooks (64.33) vs Brandon Jennings (64.33)
If you're looking for a turnover prone point guard, boy do I have some guys for you. Both Brooks and Jennings managed to accumulate over 200 TOs. Each have their tradeoffs, Brooks scored more, Jennings stole more. Brandon slightly rebounded better, while Aaron knocked down 65 more 3s. Each are great players for fantasy, but its Jennings' inefficiency that makes him a toxic asset in my mind. In roto, Brandon can put a real damper on your shooting percentage no matter how many big men you stock up on. With two guys who have comparable statistics (even though I think Brooks outperforms Jennings overall), when one guy has such terrible efficeincy, I can't help but take the safer pick to not ruin my team. In other words, don't get lured in by the 51 point game.
Luis Scola (105.11) vs J.J. Hickson (105.11)
Comparing these two players on their 09-10 stats would be a huge mistake. This matchup is all about speculation. Hickson only amassed an underwhelming 8.5 PPG to go along with 4.9 rebounds. Of course this is all in the post-LeBron era. Take away all of the points, assists and rebounds from James and they have to be divided up amongst the players who actually stayed in a Cavs uniform. Hickson will not be the sole beneficiary of these stats, but I look for him to be a much bigger factor as he moves into what should be a starting spot. On the other hand is Scola, who needs no speculation. There is not much change going on in the frontcourt of Houston, with the exception of the semi-return of Yao. I look for Scola to put up similar numbers to those of last year, while Hickson jumps on the opportunity in Cleveland and becomes a mainstay in their lineup. This late in the draft, go with the upside, take Hickson and hope for the best.
Greg Oden (141.78) vs Roy Hibbert (142.56) vs Spencer Hawes (143.78)
Here's 3 centers who all have varying storylines heading into this year. One (Oden) is as injury prone as they come, the next (Hibbert) is just waiting to bust out of his shell, and the last (Hawes) is enjoying a change of scenery in Philadelphia. However, with each of these storylines comes a bit of risk. Hibbert seems like a breakout target to most, but he might only play as well as last year. Hawes will adjust to a new starting position in the 76ers offense, which could mean big things if he meshes well. The presence of both Elton Brand and Marrese Speights makes me a little weary of how many minutes he can get in the Philadelphia offense. Of course, last but not least, the biggest downside perhaps in all of the NBA, Greg Oden has yet to play anywhere close to a full season of basketball. Even if Oden comes back around Christmas time, he will still only play around a half season or so.
With all of that said, I would order the three players like this: Hibbert, Oden, Hawes. I believe in Hibbert, and worst case scenario, you end up with a 10/10 guy who blocks a lot of shots. If you can afford a bench spot for Oden, you might as well take the risk. He was one of the best centers in all of fantasy basketball last year before the injury, and 2.3 blocks per game is too high a number to pass up on if you can get it. That leaves us with Hawes, who is talented in his own right, but I don't see as much from him as the other two.
Well there you are. You can now shop, errr draft safely!
And remember: If you ever have fantasy questions, leave a comment below or feel free to e-mail me at bglewis@fantasysportscircle.com !
Say you walk down the cereal aisle and you know you need some fruity loops of some kind (sorry, the last thing I need is a copyright lawsuit). There are two choices that confront you, the generic or the name brand. The generic stuff tastes like cardboard, but is usually a buck cheaper, and you're all about value. Well today is your lucky day! You see that for some reason, the name brand stuff has dropped their price down to match the generic. That's the sort of situation I'm talking about in this post. With the current ADPs listed from MockDraftCentral, I have pointed out a few players who are going in nearly identical spots in the draft, despite one player tasting like cardboard.
(Sidenote: RotoTimes has a great tool to compare fantasy players. Just check it out here to see the stats comparisons that I make in this article in front of your own eyes.)
Al Jefferson (35.22) vs David West (36.67)
Both of these big guys are coming off of injury plagued seasons after high fantasy expectations in 2009-10. Wests' future looks bright with the return of CP3. Having the All-World point guard dishing him the ball, look for DWest's stats to make a generous jump. West might be on the way up, but Jeffersons' ceiling is higher. Not only is Big Al's autograph incredible, but he was an undisputed first round talent in most drafts last year. Throw in the fact, that he just moved into a much better situation with a much better point guard, in Utah. As long as he is able to play 90-95% of his games this year, he should get back into the 20/10 range, something West couldn't reach even in his younger days.
Aaron Brooks (64.33) vs Brandon Jennings (64.33)
If you're looking for a turnover prone point guard, boy do I have some guys for you. Both Brooks and Jennings managed to accumulate over 200 TOs. Each have their tradeoffs, Brooks scored more, Jennings stole more. Brandon slightly rebounded better, while Aaron knocked down 65 more 3s. Each are great players for fantasy, but its Jennings' inefficiency that makes him a toxic asset in my mind. In roto, Brandon can put a real damper on your shooting percentage no matter how many big men you stock up on. With two guys who have comparable statistics (even though I think Brooks outperforms Jennings overall), when one guy has such terrible efficeincy, I can't help but take the safer pick to not ruin my team. In other words, don't get lured in by the 51 point game.
Luis Scola (105.11) vs J.J. Hickson (105.11)
Comparing these two players on their 09-10 stats would be a huge mistake. This matchup is all about speculation. Hickson only amassed an underwhelming 8.5 PPG to go along with 4.9 rebounds. Of course this is all in the post-LeBron era. Take away all of the points, assists and rebounds from James and they have to be divided up amongst the players who actually stayed in a Cavs uniform. Hickson will not be the sole beneficiary of these stats, but I look for him to be a much bigger factor as he moves into what should be a starting spot. On the other hand is Scola, who needs no speculation. There is not much change going on in the frontcourt of Houston, with the exception of the semi-return of Yao. I look for Scola to put up similar numbers to those of last year, while Hickson jumps on the opportunity in Cleveland and becomes a mainstay in their lineup. This late in the draft, go with the upside, take Hickson and hope for the best.
Greg Oden (141.78) vs Roy Hibbert (142.56) vs Spencer Hawes (143.78)
Here's 3 centers who all have varying storylines heading into this year. One (Oden) is as injury prone as they come, the next (Hibbert) is just waiting to bust out of his shell, and the last (Hawes) is enjoying a change of scenery in Philadelphia. However, with each of these storylines comes a bit of risk. Hibbert seems like a breakout target to most, but he might only play as well as last year. Hawes will adjust to a new starting position in the 76ers offense, which could mean big things if he meshes well. The presence of both Elton Brand and Marrese Speights makes me a little weary of how many minutes he can get in the Philadelphia offense. Of course, last but not least, the biggest downside perhaps in all of the NBA, Greg Oden has yet to play anywhere close to a full season of basketball. Even if Oden comes back around Christmas time, he will still only play around a half season or so.
With all of that said, I would order the three players like this: Hibbert, Oden, Hawes. I believe in Hibbert, and worst case scenario, you end up with a 10/10 guy who blocks a lot of shots. If you can afford a bench spot for Oden, you might as well take the risk. He was one of the best centers in all of fantasy basketball last year before the injury, and 2.3 blocks per game is too high a number to pass up on if you can get it. That leaves us with Hawes, who is talented in his own right, but I don't see as much from him as the other two.
Well there you are. You can now shop, errr draft safely!
And remember: If you ever have fantasy questions, leave a comment below or feel free to e-mail me at bglewis@fantasysportscircle.com !
August 23, 2010
PPR Fantasy Football: ADP Battles
Quick Announcement: Make sure you check out the FSC Contest here! If you've ever been called creative, even by your grandma, win some money!
Ok, with that shameless promotion out of the way. One of the sources I consult the most when preparing for my fantasy drafts is MockDraftCentral. If you have never been there, prepare to have your mind blown. Wonder if you can wait for your 7th round pick to select Wes Welker? Just look at the latest Average Draft Positions (or ADPs) and you'll notice that he is already a steal in 12 teamers, as he usually goes in the early 5th. Now, that situation has the same odds as me owning 8 Ferraris, but that's what America's all about.
During my latest trip to MDC, I noticed a few players who had interchangeable ADPs and decided to sit down and think through who should go first. These are those observations:
Randy Moss (ADP: 9.90) vs. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 9.92)
Fitzy might have the advantage in age, but thats about it in my mind. They each are extremely talented pass catchers who have put up jaw-dropping numbers in the past. What sets these two studs apart in my mind are there situations. One (Moss) has a Pro Bowl quarterback throwing passes to him. The other (Fitzgerald) is helping to introduce a young QB into the league, who has already shown he can be ineffective at this level. Moss has the best complement WR on the other side of the field in Wes Welker. Fitzgerald just watched Anquan Boldin leave town, turning all of the defenses' eyes on him. Moss' situation seems infinitely better than Fitzgerald's, and it makes me really question why people are picking them in the same slot.
Chris Wells (36.37) vs. LeSean McCoy (36.49)
Here's another Cardinal being selected at the same point as a positionmate. The similarities between these guys extend further than their position of choice, though. Both can catch out of the backfield. Both are youngins being counted on in powerful offenses. Both lost their 2009 quarterbacks. Not to mention, "Beanie and McCoy" could make an excellent cop drama name. Who do I think should go before the other? I don't think there is much of a major difference between these guys. What I can say is that both LeSean and Beanie are going much later than I would let them in PPR. Pass-catching backs are hard to come by, especially ones who are the focal points of above average offenses. These guys should each be taken at the beginning of the 3rd round.
Ronnie Brown (55.19) vs. Felix Jones (55.19)
More similarities are bound. Brown and Jones are each injury prone, and have shown that they can be incendiary. The major downside to each of these guys is that neither has a clear shot to 250 carries. Sure Ronnie will get a healthy amount of touches out of the Wildcat, but he still has to share a backfield with Ricky Williams, who was serviceable when he took over late last year. Jones has Marion Barber still stuck in the RB1 position on the depth chart, but he can produce even with limited carries. To borrow a term from the world of finance, I would classify this battle as a hold. If Felix manages his way into the starting spot before Week 1, he instantly becomes the favorite. Otherwise, I like Ronnie by a nose.
Malcolm Floyd (96.27) vs. Santonio Holmes (96.65)
I'm just going to flat out say it: I have NO idea why these guys are so close together in ADP. Holmes will only play in 75% of the games this year, and who knows where he will fit into the depth chart. As Vincent Jackson's holdout continues, Floyd is really starting to look like a golden goose in my eyes. The Chargers are going to air it out no matter what, and having the number one option for Philip Rivers a tremendous asset to have. Santonio has character problems and will have to try and step into a team that has already gelled for four weeks. Floyd has so much upside that I wholeheartedly think he deserves a 7th round pick, since I see his baseline being a WR3, more likely turning into a WR2. Remember, Vincent Jackson wasn't much but a 6'5" physical specimen before becoming a fantasy stud, the same situation Floyd finds himself in now.
Do you agree with these battles? Or am I just blowin' smoke? Let me know in the comments section below.
Ok, with that shameless promotion out of the way. One of the sources I consult the most when preparing for my fantasy drafts is MockDraftCentral. If you have never been there, prepare to have your mind blown. Wonder if you can wait for your 7th round pick to select Wes Welker? Just look at the latest Average Draft Positions (or ADPs) and you'll notice that he is already a steal in 12 teamers, as he usually goes in the early 5th. Now, that situation has the same odds as me owning 8 Ferraris, but that's what America's all about.
During my latest trip to MDC, I noticed a few players who had interchangeable ADPs and decided to sit down and think through who should go first. These are those observations:
Randy Moss (ADP: 9.90) vs. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 9.92)
Fitzy might have the advantage in age, but thats about it in my mind. They each are extremely talented pass catchers who have put up jaw-dropping numbers in the past. What sets these two studs apart in my mind are there situations. One (Moss) has a Pro Bowl quarterback throwing passes to him. The other (Fitzgerald) is helping to introduce a young QB into the league, who has already shown he can be ineffective at this level. Moss has the best complement WR on the other side of the field in Wes Welker. Fitzgerald just watched Anquan Boldin leave town, turning all of the defenses' eyes on him. Moss' situation seems infinitely better than Fitzgerald's, and it makes me really question why people are picking them in the same slot.
Chris Wells (36.37) vs. LeSean McCoy (36.49)
Here's another Cardinal being selected at the same point as a positionmate. The similarities between these guys extend further than their position of choice, though. Both can catch out of the backfield. Both are youngins being counted on in powerful offenses. Both lost their 2009 quarterbacks. Not to mention, "Beanie and McCoy" could make an excellent cop drama name. Who do I think should go before the other? I don't think there is much of a major difference between these guys. What I can say is that both LeSean and Beanie are going much later than I would let them in PPR. Pass-catching backs are hard to come by, especially ones who are the focal points of above average offenses. These guys should each be taken at the beginning of the 3rd round.
Ronnie Brown (55.19) vs. Felix Jones (55.19)
More similarities are bound. Brown and Jones are each injury prone, and have shown that they can be incendiary. The major downside to each of these guys is that neither has a clear shot to 250 carries. Sure Ronnie will get a healthy amount of touches out of the Wildcat, but he still has to share a backfield with Ricky Williams, who was serviceable when he took over late last year. Jones has Marion Barber still stuck in the RB1 position on the depth chart, but he can produce even with limited carries. To borrow a term from the world of finance, I would classify this battle as a hold. If Felix manages his way into the starting spot before Week 1, he instantly becomes the favorite. Otherwise, I like Ronnie by a nose.
Malcolm Floyd (96.27) vs. Santonio Holmes (96.65)
I'm just going to flat out say it: I have NO idea why these guys are so close together in ADP. Holmes will only play in 75% of the games this year, and who knows where he will fit into the depth chart. As Vincent Jackson's holdout continues, Floyd is really starting to look like a golden goose in my eyes. The Chargers are going to air it out no matter what, and having the number one option for Philip Rivers a tremendous asset to have. Santonio has character problems and will have to try and step into a team that has already gelled for four weeks. Floyd has so much upside that I wholeheartedly think he deserves a 7th round pick, since I see his baseline being a WR3, more likely turning into a WR2. Remember, Vincent Jackson wasn't much but a 6'5" physical specimen before becoming a fantasy stud, the same situation Floyd finds himself in now.
Do you agree with these battles? Or am I just blowin' smoke? Let me know in the comments section below.
March 9, 2010
WFS: AL West
This is the second edition of a series of articles I will be writing, where I will pick out three players in each division of the majors and tell you whether I think they will be a Win, Fail or Sleeper in the 2010 campaign. The Win player will be a high pick (1st 5-6 rounds) that I think will reward you with quality, if not excellent production. The Fail player will be one who, you guessed it will fail to meet expectations, and the sleeper is self explanatory.
Win: Kendry Morales 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (ADP: 52.60)
When Mark Teixeira left for the holy land of baseball where money flows like the river of chocolate in Willy Wonka, the people of LA were not all that sad. Why wouldn’t they mourn the departure of one of the best young sluggers in baseball? There was a masher waiting to get a chance at a full time starting role waiting in the wings. After hitting .341/.376./.543 in the minors in 2008, many people saw big things coming from the monstrous Cuban in 2009. While he put up fairly good numbers throughout the first few months, Morales caught fire in the 2nd half, while capturing the August AL Player of the Month putting up a flat out nasty line of .385/22/10/33. If he did that every month, he’d even have Pujols bowing down at his feet. Now, I am in no way recommending that Morales be picked number one, or even in the first 3 rounds. What I am saying is that if you are in a position where you can choose between Utley and Teixeira, you can afford to take the guy from the shallower position (Utley in this case) because guys who will put up great numbers at first are waiting in the middle rounds.
Fail: Brian Fuentes RP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (ADP: 114.19)
A player who is going in the 10th round in average drafts don’t really come with much expectations, but when it’s the 8th closer off the board (7th now with the Nathan injury), you are counting on him to put up major save totals. Fuentes was a major factor in the save column, and carried many roto teams to a high total in the category. Many would argue that Fuentes’ 48 saves in 2009 would justify him being a top closer no matter what, but there are just too many negatives facing him this year for him to be my top saves guy. First, enter Fernando Rodney. Pretty much every closer out there is battling with a setup man, but all Fuentes had to deal with while blowing his 8 saves last year was the 8th inning mainstay, Scott Shields. Next, Fuentes’ stats last season, outside of the saves were atrocious, and it was the year he moved OUT of Coors Field. In his first year in the red and white, all of his major underlying statistics (K/BB, HR/9, BAA) and even those that counted (Ks, ERA and WHIP) got much worse. Had a guy with closer potential like Rodney been in the picture, there would have been a much bigger chance that Fuentes would have been dethroned as the Halos’ closer. Now, mix both of these together with the fact that he is turning 35 and that ugly mixture is too much risk for a guy I’m hoping will carry my team in a statistic.
Sleeper: Rich Harden SP, Texas Rangers (ADP: 218.15)
My first instinct was to put Ben Sheets here, but I already did a writeup on him and a few other sleepers here. Instead, I moved to another injury prone pitcher in Arlington. Over the last few years, Harden has become known as one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy. Unfortunately, those times have been few and far between. Hopefully, the Rangers plan to skip a few of his starts to get him to the 180 IP mark. Combine that with the fact that Harden has posted a 9.35 K/9 ratio in his career, and he could put up around 190 Ks if their plan works, which would be a very impressive total from one of the last pitchers you will probably pick. If he can add to that impressive K total with his other career numbers, 1.24 WHIP and 3.39 ERA, he could be a very quality starter in the Rangers rotation and in your lineup, if he’s healthy of course (knock on wood).
Win: Kendry Morales 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (ADP: 52.60)
When Mark Teixeira left for the holy land of baseball where money flows like the river of chocolate in Willy Wonka, the people of LA were not all that sad. Why wouldn’t they mourn the departure of one of the best young sluggers in baseball? There was a masher waiting to get a chance at a full time starting role waiting in the wings. After hitting .341/.376./.543 in the minors in 2008, many people saw big things coming from the monstrous Cuban in 2009. While he put up fairly good numbers throughout the first few months, Morales caught fire in the 2nd half, while capturing the August AL Player of the Month putting up a flat out nasty line of .385/22/10/33. If he did that every month, he’d even have Pujols bowing down at his feet. Now, I am in no way recommending that Morales be picked number one, or even in the first 3 rounds. What I am saying is that if you are in a position where you can choose between Utley and Teixeira, you can afford to take the guy from the shallower position (Utley in this case) because guys who will put up great numbers at first are waiting in the middle rounds.
Fail: Brian Fuentes RP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (ADP: 114.19)
A player who is going in the 10th round in average drafts don’t really come with much expectations, but when it’s the 8th closer off the board (7th now with the Nathan injury), you are counting on him to put up major save totals. Fuentes was a major factor in the save column, and carried many roto teams to a high total in the category. Many would argue that Fuentes’ 48 saves in 2009 would justify him being a top closer no matter what, but there are just too many negatives facing him this year for him to be my top saves guy. First, enter Fernando Rodney. Pretty much every closer out there is battling with a setup man, but all Fuentes had to deal with while blowing his 8 saves last year was the 8th inning mainstay, Scott Shields. Next, Fuentes’ stats last season, outside of the saves were atrocious, and it was the year he moved OUT of Coors Field. In his first year in the red and white, all of his major underlying statistics (K/BB, HR/9, BAA) and even those that counted (Ks, ERA and WHIP) got much worse. Had a guy with closer potential like Rodney been in the picture, there would have been a much bigger chance that Fuentes would have been dethroned as the Halos’ closer. Now, mix both of these together with the fact that he is turning 35 and that ugly mixture is too much risk for a guy I’m hoping will carry my team in a statistic.
Sleeper: Rich Harden SP, Texas Rangers (ADP: 218.15)
My first instinct was to put Ben Sheets here, but I already did a writeup on him and a few other sleepers here. Instead, I moved to another injury prone pitcher in Arlington. Over the last few years, Harden has become known as one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy. Unfortunately, those times have been few and far between. Hopefully, the Rangers plan to skip a few of his starts to get him to the 180 IP mark. Combine that with the fact that Harden has posted a 9.35 K/9 ratio in his career, and he could put up around 190 Ks if their plan works, which would be a very impressive total from one of the last pitchers you will probably pick. If he can add to that impressive K total with his other career numbers, 1.24 WHIP and 3.39 ERA, he could be a very quality starter in the Rangers rotation and in your lineup, if he’s healthy of course (knock on wood).
February 20, 2010
Guys I'm Buying: Dissecting ADPs
Alright so the title may make it seem like I'm entering the slave trade, or some other human trafficking, but remember the focus of this website people! Think about fantasy! Oh god that just sent you back to the human slave thing huh? Alright, well, once you get your mind out of that gutter, take a look at this list of guys that I think are going too low in mock drafts, so snag 'em now while they're still cheap!
Ichiro Suzuki OF, Seattle Mariners (ADP: 40.29)
With the abundance of power in the first round, finding a good speed threat in the first few rounds is a good idea. It is rare for players to have a higher batting average than this guy, but what makes him so invaluable is how many ABs he does it over. Ichiro is a lock for 200 hits, and that's the number which will carry your team. Those hits will help you offset guys like Mark Reynolds or Ryan Howard and allow you to pick up their great power stats without worrying about them ruining your BA column. The Mariners have started to reload offensively, and with the addition of Chone Figgins, Ichiro could drive in more runs and show off the power a lot of scouts and coaches say he secretly possesses. Ichiro is an extremely valuable asset to have, and getting him in the 3rd round is a steal in my opinion.
My Bold Prediction: 65/12/100/30/.325
Ian Stewart 2B/3B, Colorado Rockies (126.90)
The last few mock drafts I've done, Stewart hasn't gone anywhere near this spot. As a matter of fact, I was able to snag him in the 18th round in one. Ian is a masher at a position which does not have many. He plays two valuable positions and plays in one of the friendliest hitter's parks for half of his games. His downside, of course is his average, but hes coming out of a year with a low BABIP, he's only 24 and plays in a deep park with tons of gaps. While he may never come close to hitting .290, Stewart is one of those guys in the Ichiro column who will give you great power production from a shallow position and be complemented by a good average hitter.
My Bold Prediction: 80/25/85/10/.268
Corey Hart OF, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP 195.85)
Last year, Hart was one of the top 25 OFs and people expected him to explode onto the scene after a 20/20 season in 2008. The poor suckers who bought him in 09 had to watch as he went out and put up pitiful numbers, as he battled injury and went through a season-long slump. Oh... wait... I was one of those suckers. Its hard to bet on the same guy after he failed you the year before, but I like Hart to make a comeback. His power and speed numbers fell, but the guy is a physical beast, at the ripe age of 28 and has protection from two of the biggest power hitters in the game. If he can work his way up to the #2 spot where he started last year, and can bring back a little bit of the 2008 magic, I really like him as a last-round flyer for a consistent outfielder.
My Bold Prediction: 80/20/80/22/.270
Ben Sheets SP, Oakland A's (ADP 234.97)
When it comes to starting pitching there's a rule I like to follow. ERA and WHIP will fluctuate, wins are flukes but K's you can count on. I know Sheets' injury woes precede him, but the guy can rack up the strikeouts when he's healthy. I mean this guy had 264 in one year... 264! Throw in the fact that he is moving to one of the best pitchers parks and Big Ben could really do some damage. Now, I know that his ADP is very low in part because of his late signing, but if Ben can just show up for a majority of his scheduled starts, he could put up good numbers in every category. Sheets could very well spend the year on and off the DL, but if you can get him in the last round, a return to his old Brewers form could land you a solid pitcher to round out your staff.
My Bold Prediction: 11-6/150 IPs/140 Ks/3.80/1.25
Ichiro Suzuki OF, Seattle Mariners (ADP: 40.29)
With the abundance of power in the first round, finding a good speed threat in the first few rounds is a good idea. It is rare for players to have a higher batting average than this guy, but what makes him so invaluable is how many ABs he does it over. Ichiro is a lock for 200 hits, and that's the number which will carry your team. Those hits will help you offset guys like Mark Reynolds or Ryan Howard and allow you to pick up their great power stats without worrying about them ruining your BA column. The Mariners have started to reload offensively, and with the addition of Chone Figgins, Ichiro could drive in more runs and show off the power a lot of scouts and coaches say he secretly possesses. Ichiro is an extremely valuable asset to have, and getting him in the 3rd round is a steal in my opinion.
My Bold Prediction: 65/12/100/30/.325
Ian Stewart 2B/3B, Colorado Rockies (126.90)
The last few mock drafts I've done, Stewart hasn't gone anywhere near this spot. As a matter of fact, I was able to snag him in the 18th round in one. Ian is a masher at a position which does not have many. He plays two valuable positions and plays in one of the friendliest hitter's parks for half of his games. His downside, of course is his average, but hes coming out of a year with a low BABIP, he's only 24 and plays in a deep park with tons of gaps. While he may never come close to hitting .290, Stewart is one of those guys in the Ichiro column who will give you great power production from a shallow position and be complemented by a good average hitter.
My Bold Prediction: 80/25/85/10/.268
Corey Hart OF, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP 195.85)
Last year, Hart was one of the top 25 OFs and people expected him to explode onto the scene after a 20/20 season in 2008. The poor suckers who bought him in 09 had to watch as he went out and put up pitiful numbers, as he battled injury and went through a season-long slump. Oh... wait... I was one of those suckers. Its hard to bet on the same guy after he failed you the year before, but I like Hart to make a comeback. His power and speed numbers fell, but the guy is a physical beast, at the ripe age of 28 and has protection from two of the biggest power hitters in the game. If he can work his way up to the #2 spot where he started last year, and can bring back a little bit of the 2008 magic, I really like him as a last-round flyer for a consistent outfielder.
My Bold Prediction: 80/20/80/22/.270
Ben Sheets SP, Oakland A's (ADP 234.97)
When it comes to starting pitching there's a rule I like to follow. ERA and WHIP will fluctuate, wins are flukes but K's you can count on. I know Sheets' injury woes precede him, but the guy can rack up the strikeouts when he's healthy. I mean this guy had 264 in one year... 264! Throw in the fact that he is moving to one of the best pitchers parks and Big Ben could really do some damage. Now, I know that his ADP is very low in part because of his late signing, but if Ben can just show up for a majority of his scheduled starts, he could put up good numbers in every category. Sheets could very well spend the year on and off the DL, but if you can get him in the last round, a return to his old Brewers form could land you a solid pitcher to round out your staff.
My Bold Prediction: 11-6/150 IPs/140 Ks/3.80/1.25
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