This is the last edition of a series of articles I will be writing, where I pick out three players in each division of the majors and tell you whether I think they will be a Win, Fail or Sleeper in the 2010 campaign. The Win player will be a high pick (1st 5-6 rounds) that I think will reward you with quality, if not excellent production. The Fail player will be one who, you guessed it, will fail to meet expectations, and the sleeper is self explanatory.
Win: Ryan Zimmerman 3B, Washington Nationals (ADP: 34.84)
Let's play a quick game of which third baseman would you rather have!
Player A 2009 Stats: 100/33/113/9/.281, 24 Years Old
Player B 2009 Stats: 110/33/106/2/.292, 25 Years Old
Seems pretty even. Now what if I said that the Player B could be had 2 full rounds later in your draft? Well that would certainly make the lack of 7 SBs seem like a pretty minuscule difference. That's what happens when guys like Evan Longoria (aka Player A) get on the cover of MLB 2K10 and Ryan Zimmerman gets hidden in Washington. This ADP discrepancy is derived more from Zimmerman's anonymity than Longoria's stardom. Both of these guys should be early second rounders, since they provide elite power numbers from a position that is very shallow. I mean the fact that some people have to start Chipper Jones should give you some urgency to draft a third baseman early. There's really no statistics that point to a regression from Zimmerman, so he should make a real steal in the 3rd round.
Fail: Carlos Beltran OF, New York Mets (ADP: 93.62)
When I started sifting through the ADPs of the players in the NL East, I figured with the Mets and Nats both residing here that this would be the easiest portion of the article to fill. Amazingly enough, I found the majority of the guys on these bad, bad teams to be going right about where they should. In the end it came down to Beltran, Jose Reyes and Johan, three injury prone guys from the same team. I decided to leave Reyes alone since there is still so much unknown with his condition, and say what you will about Johan, but he was still pretty impressive last year in limited play. That left me with Beltran, who still played a relatively good game in 2009, but his age and position scare me. When guys who will give you guaranteed numbers are going nearby (see: Ibanez, Raul and Hunter, Torii) it is hard to justify spending a pick on Beltran when he might only play half the season. Even if he were to play the whole year, you could argue that playing in CitiField would only make his numbers fairly even with the aforementioned guys who don't come with so much risk. Beltran was a total stud back in his Royal days, but I just don't see him being in the shape that he needs to be to warrant a 10th round pick. Go with one of the younger guys on the upswing in their careers, like McLouth and McCutchen and leave the injury risk for another owner.
Sleeper: J.A. Happ SP, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 259.92)
It would be really easy to take advantage of the fact that Mock Draft Central has Jason Heyward with an ADP of 205.46, and I have too much respect for you guys to do that to you. Instead, I'm going to go with one of the big surprises from last year, who still isn't getting much love. J.A. Happ is moving permanently into the rotation of one of the best teams in baseball, behind a guy so intelligent in the game that they nicknamed him Doc. While Happ's win total and ERA were out of this world, his K rate left something to be desired. What makes this okay though, is that he posted a very impressive 10.07 K/9 in his final AAA year before being called up. He has shown he can strike out a hefty amount of batters, so as he gains more experience his major league total should rise as well. There's really no doubt in my mind that his ERA will come back down to Earth, since its pretty hard to improve on 2.93 without being an ace. But, while that number goes down, his win total should go up to somewhere in the 15-17 range, since he has such a high powered offense behind him. If you are like me and save a few slots towards the end of your rotation for sleeper starters there aren't many other guys in the 250 range that I would pick over Happ and his potential.
Showing posts with label WFS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WFS. Show all posts
April 2, 2010
April 1, 2010
WFS: AL East
This is the fifth edition of a series of articles I will be writing, where I will pick out three players in each division of the majors and tell you whether I think they will be a Win, Fail or Sleeper in the 2010 campaign. The Win player will be a high pick (1st 5-6 rounds) that I think will reward you with quality, if not excellent production. The Fail player will be one who, you guessed it, will fail to meet expectations, and the sleeper is self explanatory.
Win: Curtis Granderson OF, New York Yankees (ADP: 51.05)
I wrote in the AL Central Article about how Johnny Damon would not be a good fantasy option now that he had left Yankee Stadium for Comerica Park. Granderson made the exact opposite move this offseason despite the fact that the two outfielders were not traded for one another. While Damon will lose the easy lefty homers that the New York stadium couldn't hold. Granderson, on the other hand, will have a number of his long fly balls to left field be turned into homers. Combine that with the fact that he hit 30 homers and swiped 20 bases last year, and you have a player who could very easily go 35/25. There are some minor questions regarding RBIs and runs, but playing in the most high-powered offense in the AL removes a lot of those doubts. The major knock on the Yankees' CF is his average, which was an abysmal .249 in 2009. While this makes him a major liability in roto leagues, there are definite reasons to expect a turnaround in that category. First off, he is a career .272 hitter, including last year's stats which drag the number down. Granderson also hit .275 on balls in play, which while only somewhat lower than average, is a significant low for a guy with the kind of speed that he possesses. As long as he can be a bit more "lucky" when he makes contact, Granderson should hit somewhere in the .270-.280 range, making him very comparable to Grady Sizemore, except 2-3 rounds later.
Fail: Brian Roberts 2B, Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 48.67)
Roberts had begun to slip in drafts due to his highly-publicized back issues, but as he seems to recover he has moved back into the 4th round. Roberts is definitely a legit 2B starter, but he is being drafted among the likes of a few players I would much rather have. Guys like Cano, Hill and Zobrist are all going around the same draft slot, despite the fact that they possess power, an attribute that is rare at their position. Cano hits behind some of the best hitters in baseball, Hill had an unbelievable year hitting 36 homers and Zobrist hit 25/15 and has outfield eligibility. Meanwhile, Roberts is only a minor power threat, who can steal somewhere in the 30 SB range, however, with his speed numbers slumping even 30 seems like it could be a stretch. Steals are abundant in the OF, and can be found much later on, whereas homers and RBIs are much harder to find, especially at second. Even if Roberts plays the entire season with limited pain and missed time, he still might not match the numbers of other comparable 2Bs, so why take the chance?
Sleeper: Jeff Niemann SP, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 214.85)
A lot of the guys I have selected throughout these WFS columns have ended up being 27, without picking them for that reason. Well, Niemann is yet another one of those guys entering the year that many people believe is the best bet for a breakout season by a player. Niemann already showed last year that he can survive in the Murderer's Row that is the AL East, going 13-6 with a very respectable 3.94 ERA. While his K rate (6.23 per 9) was less than stellar, he has shown an ability to post big strikeout numbers in the minors, so he may increase his total with a little experience under his belt. He also saw his K/9 number shoot up throughout the season, a sign of his experience kicking in.
He plays for a great team, playing together for one of the last times as baseball's "highest bidder" mentality will rob them of some of their free agents. With that motivation, he could very well post the same type of wins total. I don't really expect his ERA and WHIP numbers to come down that much, but they were respectable to begin with, for a late round sleeper pick. There really isn't much risk that comes with these picks, so taking a chance on a guy who could improve on numbers like Niemann's would make a great steal as a starter to round out your rotation.
Win: Curtis Granderson OF, New York Yankees (ADP: 51.05)
I wrote in the AL Central Article about how Johnny Damon would not be a good fantasy option now that he had left Yankee Stadium for Comerica Park. Granderson made the exact opposite move this offseason despite the fact that the two outfielders were not traded for one another. While Damon will lose the easy lefty homers that the New York stadium couldn't hold. Granderson, on the other hand, will have a number of his long fly balls to left field be turned into homers. Combine that with the fact that he hit 30 homers and swiped 20 bases last year, and you have a player who could very easily go 35/25. There are some minor questions regarding RBIs and runs, but playing in the most high-powered offense in the AL removes a lot of those doubts. The major knock on the Yankees' CF is his average, which was an abysmal .249 in 2009. While this makes him a major liability in roto leagues, there are definite reasons to expect a turnaround in that category. First off, he is a career .272 hitter, including last year's stats which drag the number down. Granderson also hit .275 on balls in play, which while only somewhat lower than average, is a significant low for a guy with the kind of speed that he possesses. As long as he can be a bit more "lucky" when he makes contact, Granderson should hit somewhere in the .270-.280 range, making him very comparable to Grady Sizemore, except 2-3 rounds later.
Fail: Brian Roberts 2B, Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 48.67)
Roberts had begun to slip in drafts due to his highly-publicized back issues, but as he seems to recover he has moved back into the 4th round. Roberts is definitely a legit 2B starter, but he is being drafted among the likes of a few players I would much rather have. Guys like Cano, Hill and Zobrist are all going around the same draft slot, despite the fact that they possess power, an attribute that is rare at their position. Cano hits behind some of the best hitters in baseball, Hill had an unbelievable year hitting 36 homers and Zobrist hit 25/15 and has outfield eligibility. Meanwhile, Roberts is only a minor power threat, who can steal somewhere in the 30 SB range, however, with his speed numbers slumping even 30 seems like it could be a stretch. Steals are abundant in the OF, and can be found much later on, whereas homers and RBIs are much harder to find, especially at second. Even if Roberts plays the entire season with limited pain and missed time, he still might not match the numbers of other comparable 2Bs, so why take the chance?
Sleeper: Jeff Niemann SP, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 214.85)
A lot of the guys I have selected throughout these WFS columns have ended up being 27, without picking them for that reason. Well, Niemann is yet another one of those guys entering the year that many people believe is the best bet for a breakout season by a player. Niemann already showed last year that he can survive in the Murderer's Row that is the AL East, going 13-6 with a very respectable 3.94 ERA. While his K rate (6.23 per 9) was less than stellar, he has shown an ability to post big strikeout numbers in the minors, so he may increase his total with a little experience under his belt. He also saw his K/9 number shoot up throughout the season, a sign of his experience kicking in.
He plays for a great team, playing together for one of the last times as baseball's "highest bidder" mentality will rob them of some of their free agents. With that motivation, he could very well post the same type of wins total. I don't really expect his ERA and WHIP numbers to come down that much, but they were respectable to begin with, for a late round sleeper pick. There really isn't much risk that comes with these picks, so taking a chance on a guy who could improve on numbers like Niemann's would make a great steal as a starter to round out your rotation.
March 27, 2010
WFS: AL Central
Win: Justin Verlander SP, Detroit Tigers (ADP: 44.52)
I commonly advise people to pick pitchers with high strikeout totals, since ERA and WHIP can fluctuate so much from year to year. In 2009, Verlander put up a whopping 269 Ks, which is the most by a pitcher since The Big Unit struck out 290 in 2004. Anytime your strikeout numbers are being compared to Randy Johnson, you know you've done something right. Throw in the fact that he put up a very respectable 1.18 and 3.45 ERA, AND 19 wins?! I feel like one of those infomercial guys, just throwing more and more great things at you. The positive qualities keep flowing though, since he's only 27 and plays for a very good Tiger team. You might be asking yourself right now, "Ben, why is this guy not the first pitcher taken in every draft?" Well, the fact that Verlander threw a tiring 240 innings scares me a little, and he didn't have a season that resembled 2009, outside of wins, so that makes it a bit more risky to pick him. But, I still think picking Verlander is a great move for any fantasy team. Getting 200+ Ks and 15+ wins is something that everyone would love to have, especially in the 4th round.
Fail: Johnny Damon OF, Detroit Tigers (ADP: 120.53)
I was a Damon owner last year, partly because of his position in the Yankee lineup, and partly because I missed my draft and I got stuck with the former Jesus impersonator. I could not have been happier with how he turned out though, or should I say, how the new Yankee Stadium turned out. Now that Damon has moved from the lefty-friendly... no friendly isn't good enough. Now that Damon has moved from the lefty-friends-with-benefits confines of New York and made his way West to Detroit's righty-favoring Comerica Park. His speed numbers have been on the decline as he ages, and the change of scenery won't help that. Sure, he is one of the better players of our generation, but I don't think his past, or his beard for that matter is worth spending a 10th round pick in any draft on a guy who will probably end up going 15/15. Instead, look to younger, high-upside guys like Jay Bruce and CarGo who are going a few picks later.
Sleeper: J.J. Hardy SS, Minnesota Twins (ADP: 247.78)
Last November, the neighbors of the North, the Twins and Brewers, swapped underperfoming young guns as Carlos Gomez went to the land of Beer and Hardy got shipped to Minnesota. While Gomez should start, he may lose some playing time to the resurgent Jim Edmonds. Meanwhile, Hardy seems to be ready to take over from the somewhat boring Nick Punto, and if he can return to his form prior to last year, he could be a major contributor as a sleeper. In the two years prior to his distressing 2009, Hardy had an average line that looked like: .280/84/25/77. Of course, that doesn't mean he will do it again, especially after going .229/53/11/47 last year. What saves Hardy from falling off to oblivion in my mind is his age. He will be 27 for the majority of the season, the magical age when young players blossom into studs. I do think Hardy's best years might have been those '07-'08 seasons, but since he is so young he has the chance to at least return to that form and put up high homer totals from a position weak in that category. Take a tip from Abba and take a chance on Hardy, especially when you can snag him as a last round flier.
I commonly advise people to pick pitchers with high strikeout totals, since ERA and WHIP can fluctuate so much from year to year. In 2009, Verlander put up a whopping 269 Ks, which is the most by a pitcher since The Big Unit struck out 290 in 2004. Anytime your strikeout numbers are being compared to Randy Johnson, you know you've done something right. Throw in the fact that he put up a very respectable 1.18 and 3.45 ERA, AND 19 wins?! I feel like one of those infomercial guys, just throwing more and more great things at you. The positive qualities keep flowing though, since he's only 27 and plays for a very good Tiger team. You might be asking yourself right now, "Ben, why is this guy not the first pitcher taken in every draft?" Well, the fact that Verlander threw a tiring 240 innings scares me a little, and he didn't have a season that resembled 2009, outside of wins, so that makes it a bit more risky to pick him. But, I still think picking Verlander is a great move for any fantasy team. Getting 200+ Ks and 15+ wins is something that everyone would love to have, especially in the 4th round.
Fail: Johnny Damon OF, Detroit Tigers (ADP: 120.53)
I was a Damon owner last year, partly because of his position in the Yankee lineup, and partly because I missed my draft and I got stuck with the former Jesus impersonator. I could not have been happier with how he turned out though, or should I say, how the new Yankee Stadium turned out. Now that Damon has moved from the lefty-friendly... no friendly isn't good enough. Now that Damon has moved from the lefty-friends-with-benefits confines of New York and made his way West to Detroit's righty-favoring Comerica Park. His speed numbers have been on the decline as he ages, and the change of scenery won't help that. Sure, he is one of the better players of our generation, but I don't think his past, or his beard for that matter is worth spending a 10th round pick in any draft on a guy who will probably end up going 15/15. Instead, look to younger, high-upside guys like Jay Bruce and CarGo who are going a few picks later.
Sleeper: J.J. Hardy SS, Minnesota Twins (ADP: 247.78)
Last November, the neighbors of the North, the Twins and Brewers, swapped underperfoming young guns as Carlos Gomez went to the land of Beer and Hardy got shipped to Minnesota. While Gomez should start, he may lose some playing time to the resurgent Jim Edmonds. Meanwhile, Hardy seems to be ready to take over from the somewhat boring Nick Punto, and if he can return to his form prior to last year, he could be a major contributor as a sleeper. In the two years prior to his distressing 2009, Hardy had an average line that looked like: .280/84/25/77. Of course, that doesn't mean he will do it again, especially after going .229/53/11/47 last year. What saves Hardy from falling off to oblivion in my mind is his age. He will be 27 for the majority of the season, the magical age when young players blossom into studs. I do think Hardy's best years might have been those '07-'08 seasons, but since he is so young he has the chance to at least return to that form and put up high homer totals from a position weak in that category. Take a tip from Abba and take a chance on Hardy, especially when you can snag him as a last round flier.
March 24, 2010
WFS: NL Central
This is the third edition of a series of articles I will be writing, where I will pick out three players in each division of the majors and tell you whether I think they will be a Win, Fail or Sleeper in the 2010 campaign. The Win player will be a high pick (1st 5-6 rounds) that I think will reward you with quality, if not excellent production. The Fail player will be one who, you guessed it, will fail to meet expectations, and the sleeper is self explanatory.
Win: Brandon Phillips 2B, Cincinnati Reds (ADP: 38.73)
Phillips got a major boost in my books without even swinging a bat. When Brian Roberts tweaked back, the pool of second basemen got a little shallower, pushing Phillips up my board a few spots. The great thing about Phillips is that he won't hurt you in any of the categories in a normal 5x5, which is not something a lot of 2Bs can say. Brandon is one of only 7 players to have made it into the 30/30 club over the last 5 years, and has had at least 20 homers and stolen bases each of the last 2 years. Hitting from the cleanup spot in a productive Reds lineup allows Phillips to provide quality runs and RBIs as well. This leaves the ever fluctuating batting average category, which his career .265 mark does not really make you feel confident in. However, take out his horrendous rookie stint in Cleveland where he hit a whopping .208 over 370, and the rest of his resume looks a LOT better. Still, while I would never venture that he will hit .300 for you, he will probably hit in the .275-.280 range and that's all you really need to win. The fact that you are able to pick up a player who can produce in every category, at a position where only one other player (Utley) can claim that, in the 4th round makes Brandon Phillips a great option for any team.
Fail: Alfonso Soriano OF, Chicago Cubs (ADP: 82.56)
Going from a 30/30 club member to a jacket wearer from the even more exclusive 40/40 group. They have to get cool smoking jackets right? Unfortunately, last year I bought on Alfonso, thinking that he might come close to repeating one of his vintage Yankee, or even National years and return to form after an injury plagued 2008. Throw in the fact that he aged three years in one after they found out his real age a few years ago and you have an injury-risk who is 34 and hit .241 last year. Alfonso is being drafted as a top 25 OF ahead of consistent options (Hunter and Ibanez) as well as young studs on the rise (McLouth and McCutchen). While he might be a power source, since he still hit 20 homers last year in limited ABs, Alfonso is a guy I will definitely be passing on in this year's drafts, especially as my number 2 option in the OF.
Sleeper: Ryan Ludwick OF, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP: 167.56)
About a week ago, I did a draft that I felt pretty confident about, but when I sat down and laid out the projected stats for my starters, something jumped out at me. I had gone overboard in terms of stolen bases, especially in my outfield. While I had dual threats like Reimold, Choo and McCutchen, I had only complemented them with Ichiro, Nyjer Morgan and lacked real pop at the position. Ludwick is a guy that I really am trying to trade for to fix that problem. There are two major flaws in the Cardinal's hitter's game, his stolen bases and average. He has never shown a propensity to run and the only time Ludwick hit over .280 was due to the fact that he hit an otherworldly .342 on balls in play. But, if there is anything that my drafted team's outfield can show its that those two categories are fairly easy to come by. In terms of the other three categories, Ludwick is a quality producer that you can snag deep in the draft as one of your last outfielders. He is a guarantee to hit 20 HRs, probably more towards the 25-27 range, despite being the baseball definition of elderly at 32 years old. Oh, not to mention the fact that he hits in the 5 hole in a lineup where the best 3, 4 punch in the majors reside in front of him. He is going to have TONS of opportunities to hit runners in and will still get to score a fair amount from the young guns like Rasmus waiting behind him. Sure, Ludwick has some flaws, and he will never return to his 2008 self, but he is still a great hitter in one of the best lineup positions in baseball that you can pick up on the cheap.
Win: Brandon Phillips 2B, Cincinnati Reds (ADP: 38.73)
Phillips got a major boost in my books without even swinging a bat. When Brian Roberts tweaked back, the pool of second basemen got a little shallower, pushing Phillips up my board a few spots. The great thing about Phillips is that he won't hurt you in any of the categories in a normal 5x5, which is not something a lot of 2Bs can say. Brandon is one of only 7 players to have made it into the 30/30 club over the last 5 years, and has had at least 20 homers and stolen bases each of the last 2 years. Hitting from the cleanup spot in a productive Reds lineup allows Phillips to provide quality runs and RBIs as well. This leaves the ever fluctuating batting average category, which his career .265 mark does not really make you feel confident in. However, take out his horrendous rookie stint in Cleveland where he hit a whopping .208 over 370, and the rest of his resume looks a LOT better. Still, while I would never venture that he will hit .300 for you, he will probably hit in the .275-.280 range and that's all you really need to win. The fact that you are able to pick up a player who can produce in every category, at a position where only one other player (Utley) can claim that, in the 4th round makes Brandon Phillips a great option for any team.
Fail: Alfonso Soriano OF, Chicago Cubs (ADP: 82.56)
Going from a 30/30 club member to a jacket wearer from the even more exclusive 40/40 group. They have to get cool smoking jackets right? Unfortunately, last year I bought on Alfonso, thinking that he might come close to repeating one of his vintage Yankee, or even National years and return to form after an injury plagued 2008. Throw in the fact that he aged three years in one after they found out his real age a few years ago and you have an injury-risk who is 34 and hit .241 last year. Alfonso is being drafted as a top 25 OF ahead of consistent options (Hunter and Ibanez) as well as young studs on the rise (McLouth and McCutchen). While he might be a power source, since he still hit 20 homers last year in limited ABs, Alfonso is a guy I will definitely be passing on in this year's drafts, especially as my number 2 option in the OF.
Sleeper: Ryan Ludwick OF, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP: 167.56)
About a week ago, I did a draft that I felt pretty confident about, but when I sat down and laid out the projected stats for my starters, something jumped out at me. I had gone overboard in terms of stolen bases, especially in my outfield. While I had dual threats like Reimold, Choo and McCutchen, I had only complemented them with Ichiro, Nyjer Morgan and lacked real pop at the position. Ludwick is a guy that I really am trying to trade for to fix that problem. There are two major flaws in the Cardinal's hitter's game, his stolen bases and average. He has never shown a propensity to run and the only time Ludwick hit over .280 was due to the fact that he hit an otherworldly .342 on balls in play. But, if there is anything that my drafted team's outfield can show its that those two categories are fairly easy to come by. In terms of the other three categories, Ludwick is a quality producer that you can snag deep in the draft as one of your last outfielders. He is a guarantee to hit 20 HRs, probably more towards the 25-27 range, despite being the baseball definition of elderly at 32 years old. Oh, not to mention the fact that he hits in the 5 hole in a lineup where the best 3, 4 punch in the majors reside in front of him. He is going to have TONS of opportunities to hit runners in and will still get to score a fair amount from the young guns like Rasmus waiting behind him. Sure, Ludwick has some flaws, and he will never return to his 2008 self, but he is still a great hitter in one of the best lineup positions in baseball that you can pick up on the cheap.
March 9, 2010
WFS: AL West
This is the second edition of a series of articles I will be writing, where I will pick out three players in each division of the majors and tell you whether I think they will be a Win, Fail or Sleeper in the 2010 campaign. The Win player will be a high pick (1st 5-6 rounds) that I think will reward you with quality, if not excellent production. The Fail player will be one who, you guessed it will fail to meet expectations, and the sleeper is self explanatory.
Win: Kendry Morales 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (ADP: 52.60)
When Mark Teixeira left for the holy land of baseball where money flows like the river of chocolate in Willy Wonka, the people of LA were not all that sad. Why wouldn’t they mourn the departure of one of the best young sluggers in baseball? There was a masher waiting to get a chance at a full time starting role waiting in the wings. After hitting .341/.376./.543 in the minors in 2008, many people saw big things coming from the monstrous Cuban in 2009. While he put up fairly good numbers throughout the first few months, Morales caught fire in the 2nd half, while capturing the August AL Player of the Month putting up a flat out nasty line of .385/22/10/33. If he did that every month, he’d even have Pujols bowing down at his feet. Now, I am in no way recommending that Morales be picked number one, or even in the first 3 rounds. What I am saying is that if you are in a position where you can choose between Utley and Teixeira, you can afford to take the guy from the shallower position (Utley in this case) because guys who will put up great numbers at first are waiting in the middle rounds.
Fail: Brian Fuentes RP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (ADP: 114.19)
A player who is going in the 10th round in average drafts don’t really come with much expectations, but when it’s the 8th closer off the board (7th now with the Nathan injury), you are counting on him to put up major save totals. Fuentes was a major factor in the save column, and carried many roto teams to a high total in the category. Many would argue that Fuentes’ 48 saves in 2009 would justify him being a top closer no matter what, but there are just too many negatives facing him this year for him to be my top saves guy. First, enter Fernando Rodney. Pretty much every closer out there is battling with a setup man, but all Fuentes had to deal with while blowing his 8 saves last year was the 8th inning mainstay, Scott Shields. Next, Fuentes’ stats last season, outside of the saves were atrocious, and it was the year he moved OUT of Coors Field. In his first year in the red and white, all of his major underlying statistics (K/BB, HR/9, BAA) and even those that counted (Ks, ERA and WHIP) got much worse. Had a guy with closer potential like Rodney been in the picture, there would have been a much bigger chance that Fuentes would have been dethroned as the Halos’ closer. Now, mix both of these together with the fact that he is turning 35 and that ugly mixture is too much risk for a guy I’m hoping will carry my team in a statistic.
Sleeper: Rich Harden SP, Texas Rangers (ADP: 218.15)
My first instinct was to put Ben Sheets here, but I already did a writeup on him and a few other sleepers here. Instead, I moved to another injury prone pitcher in Arlington. Over the last few years, Harden has become known as one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy. Unfortunately, those times have been few and far between. Hopefully, the Rangers plan to skip a few of his starts to get him to the 180 IP mark. Combine that with the fact that Harden has posted a 9.35 K/9 ratio in his career, and he could put up around 190 Ks if their plan works, which would be a very impressive total from one of the last pitchers you will probably pick. If he can add to that impressive K total with his other career numbers, 1.24 WHIP and 3.39 ERA, he could be a very quality starter in the Rangers rotation and in your lineup, if he’s healthy of course (knock on wood).
Win: Kendry Morales 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (ADP: 52.60)
When Mark Teixeira left for the holy land of baseball where money flows like the river of chocolate in Willy Wonka, the people of LA were not all that sad. Why wouldn’t they mourn the departure of one of the best young sluggers in baseball? There was a masher waiting to get a chance at a full time starting role waiting in the wings. After hitting .341/.376./.543 in the minors in 2008, many people saw big things coming from the monstrous Cuban in 2009. While he put up fairly good numbers throughout the first few months, Morales caught fire in the 2nd half, while capturing the August AL Player of the Month putting up a flat out nasty line of .385/22/10/33. If he did that every month, he’d even have Pujols bowing down at his feet. Now, I am in no way recommending that Morales be picked number one, or even in the first 3 rounds. What I am saying is that if you are in a position where you can choose between Utley and Teixeira, you can afford to take the guy from the shallower position (Utley in this case) because guys who will put up great numbers at first are waiting in the middle rounds.
Fail: Brian Fuentes RP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (ADP: 114.19)
A player who is going in the 10th round in average drafts don’t really come with much expectations, but when it’s the 8th closer off the board (7th now with the Nathan injury), you are counting on him to put up major save totals. Fuentes was a major factor in the save column, and carried many roto teams to a high total in the category. Many would argue that Fuentes’ 48 saves in 2009 would justify him being a top closer no matter what, but there are just too many negatives facing him this year for him to be my top saves guy. First, enter Fernando Rodney. Pretty much every closer out there is battling with a setup man, but all Fuentes had to deal with while blowing his 8 saves last year was the 8th inning mainstay, Scott Shields. Next, Fuentes’ stats last season, outside of the saves were atrocious, and it was the year he moved OUT of Coors Field. In his first year in the red and white, all of his major underlying statistics (K/BB, HR/9, BAA) and even those that counted (Ks, ERA and WHIP) got much worse. Had a guy with closer potential like Rodney been in the picture, there would have been a much bigger chance that Fuentes would have been dethroned as the Halos’ closer. Now, mix both of these together with the fact that he is turning 35 and that ugly mixture is too much risk for a guy I’m hoping will carry my team in a statistic.
Sleeper: Rich Harden SP, Texas Rangers (ADP: 218.15)
My first instinct was to put Ben Sheets here, but I already did a writeup on him and a few other sleepers here. Instead, I moved to another injury prone pitcher in Arlington. Over the last few years, Harden has become known as one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy. Unfortunately, those times have been few and far between. Hopefully, the Rangers plan to skip a few of his starts to get him to the 180 IP mark. Combine that with the fact that Harden has posted a 9.35 K/9 ratio in his career, and he could put up around 190 Ks if their plan works, which would be a very impressive total from one of the last pitchers you will probably pick. If he can add to that impressive K total with his other career numbers, 1.24 WHIP and 3.39 ERA, he could be a very quality starter in the Rangers rotation and in your lineup, if he’s healthy of course (knock on wood).
March 1, 2010
WFS- NL West
This is the first edition of a new series of articles I will writing, where I will pick out three players in each division of the majors and tell you whether I think they will be a Win, Fail or Sleeper in the 2010 campaign. The Win player will be a high pick (1st 5-6 rounds) that I think will reward you with quality, if not excellent production. The Fail player will be one who, you guessed it will fail to meet expectations, and the sleeper is self-explanatory.
Win- Manny Ramirez OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP: 66.27)-
Let's take a little flashback to the last time that Manny was playing for a contract. Oh what a beautiful time that was. After a pretty abysmal start in Beantown, Manny came to LA and the rest was history, bashing home runs left and right and making dreadlocks cool again. Last year came with a tremendous amount of pressure, while he tried to show that he could do the late season heroic the entire time. Of course, last season wasn't exactly remarkable as his campaign was stained with the prescription drug scandal and wrist injury. What makes me believe in him, though is that Manny is a pure showman and he wants the big bucks to show for it. This year, he will make a cool $20 million, and I'm sure he would love to get that sort of deal next year. Now, most people would say that there is nobody who will pay him since he is 37, off the "performance enhancers" and a complete defensive liability, but Manny will do everything in his power to change GMs minds with his bat. The great thing about fantasy, unless you play by different rules, is that we only care about the bat, and Manny swings a mean one. Despite missing over a third of last season, Manny finished with respectable numbers at the plate, and it has been well documented that he had a drop-off following the beaning he got on his wrist that he tried to play through. The wrist will not be a problem this year, and Manny will earn those precious dollars, because as everyone says, " that's just Manny being Manny".
Fail- Jorge de la Rosa SP, Colorado Rockies (ADP 195.16)-
Alright, so Jorge might not be at the top of anyones draft lists, but he is still being picked among the likes of young studs David Price and Clay Buchholz. He won 16 games last year, which was impressive, but even if the Rockies have another playoff worthy season, I don't see that repeating. Jorge's strikeout number was impressive, but the number that stands out to me was his pedestrian GB/FB rate. When about half of your starts come in a park like Coors, you can't afford to be putting the ball in the air. De la Rosa might give you a healthy strikeout total from a late pick, which would seem like a great quality of a late pick, but picking him could really wreck your ERA and WHIP if the ball starts falling in those giant gaps, or even worse, going out of the park altogether.
Sleeper- Chase Headley 3B, San Diego Padres (246.55)-
It might be my Padres homerism catching up with me, but this slot came down to Kyle Blanks and Headley. I do think Blanks will put up good numbers, but you can find an article on him just about anywhere, so I decided to go with the new 3B at Petco. With the departure of Kevin Kouzmanoff to Oakland, Chase takes over at the hot corner, which really helps his value. With how shallow the 3B position is in fantasy, finding someone to take a flier on can really pay dividends. Chase was a pure masher in the minors, and all signs pointed to him being a breakout in the majors. The last two seasons were somewhat dissapointing, but this season he should see some quality pitches, being surrounded by Gonzalez and Blanks in the lineup. Petco Park definitely hurts his value, but after posting a .305 average on the road, Headley showed what he can do with the bat, once he figures out his home field. What would make me think that he could turn it around at home? Well he hit more than half of his homers there, and it is hard to do worse than .208 in a place where you spend 81 games a year. Chase has a little bit of speed, which adds to his value, since SBs are hard to come buy at third, but I really expect a big jump in his batting production since he has the tools, and is only 26. So, whether he turns into a quality starter in the late rounds, or just trade bait to someone whose corner infielder goes down, a guy like Headley could really help.
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