Player Snapshot: Gordon Beckham

In a standard 12-team roto draft, with only one catcher, there are two positions that I would consider truly scarce, and both reside in the infield: 2B and 3B. Many would argue that shortstop is another position with a small talent pool, but with quality young players like the Escobars (Yunel and Alcides) and speedsters like Elvis Andrus and Everth Cabrera, I don't mind waiting a bit before picking a SS. But I digress. Back to the other two lineup spots. As the draft progresses and it starts to get down to the nitty-gritty, real question marks start to pop up about players at these two spots. Thats why securing studs at these positions will cost you. But what if, by some miracle, there was a quality player who could fill both of these postions, in case your stud gets injured and you need a replacement? What if there was a guy that could play 4 positions, if your league has CI and MI spots, is only 23 and has shown tremendous signs of being a major league star? Well that would sure be nice, but Ben where could I ever find a deal this good? Well he is sitting in the South side of Chicago, just waiting to be snatched up in the 8th round of average fantasy drafts.

After being selected with the 8th pick in the 2008 draft, Beckham shot through the ranks, spending only 7 games in AAA in 2009 before being called up to "the show". Over the 103 games he got to play last year, he put up very respectable numbers for a rookie, and even contended for ROY honors. Had he played the whole season at the same rate, Beckham's numbers would have probably come out looking something like this: 91/22/99/.270/11. Those are quality for an outfielder, let alone a guy who played 3rd base. Now, here's the kicker, while maintaining his 3B eligibility from last year, the White Sox will move him to second to start the season, letting fantasy owners move him there or to the MI spot after whatever amount of games your league requires. That is the key to Beck's value this year. You can now get corner infielder-type power numbers from a middle infielder and open up your CI spot for another slugging first baseman. As long as you can secure some steals at one of the other MI slots and a few of your outfielders, Beckham can be a real driving force for any team, as he produces quality power numbers from a position where it is rare.

While I think Gordon is going for a fair value in the late 80s, I am in love with his combination of position eligibility (as if you couldn't tell). When a good portion of leagues only allow weekly lineup changes, having someone who can jump around when another guy has a bad week of matchups, or a small amount of games, really pays off. Gordon Beckham is a very useful player, with a very high ceiling. He can be a quality player on any team, and who doesn't want that.

WFS: AL Central

Win: Justin Verlander SP, Detroit Tigers (ADP: 44.52)
I commonly advise people to pick pitchers with high strikeout totals, since ERA and WHIP can fluctuate so much from year to year. In 2009, Verlander put up a whopping 269 Ks, which is the most by a pitcher since The Big Unit struck out 290 in 2004. Anytime your strikeout numbers are being compared to Randy Johnson, you know you've done something right. Throw in the fact that he put up a very respectable 1.18 and 3.45 ERA, AND 19 wins?! I feel like one of those infomercial guys, just throwing more and more great things at you. The positive qualities keep flowing though, since he's only 27 and plays for a very good Tiger team. You might be asking yourself right now, "Ben, why is this guy not the first pitcher taken in every draft?" Well, the fact that Verlander threw a tiring 240 innings scares me a little, and he didn't have a season that resembled 2009, outside of wins, so that makes it a bit more risky to pick him. But, I still think picking Verlander is a great move for any fantasy team. Getting 200+ Ks and 15+ wins is something that everyone would love to have, especially in the 4th round.


Fail: Johnny Damon OF, Detroit Tigers (ADP: 120.53)
I was a Damon owner last year, partly because of his position in the Yankee lineup, and partly because I missed my draft and I got stuck with the former Jesus impersonator. I could not have been happier with how he turned out though, or should I say, how the new Yankee Stadium turned out. Now that Damon has moved from the lefty-friendly... no friendly isn't good enough. Now that Damon has moved from the lefty-friends-with-benefits confines of New York and made his way West to Detroit's righty-favoring Comerica Park. His speed numbers have been on the decline as he ages, and the change of scenery won't help that. Sure, he is one of the better players of our generation, but I don't think his past, or his beard for that matter is worth spending a 10th round pick in any draft on a guy who will probably end up going 15/15. Instead, look to younger, high-upside guys like Jay Bruce and CarGo who are going a few picks later.

Sleeper: J.J. Hardy SS, Minnesota Twins (ADP: 247.78)
Last November, the neighbors of the North, the Twins and Brewers, swapped underperfoming young guns as Carlos Gomez went to the land of Beer and Hardy got shipped to Minnesota. While Gomez should start, he may lose some playing time to the resurgent Jim Edmonds. Meanwhile, Hardy seems to be ready to take over from the somewhat boring Nick Punto, and if he can return to his form prior to last year, he could be a major contributor as a sleeper. In the two years prior to his distressing 2009, Hardy had an average line that looked like: .280/84/25/77. Of course, that doesn't mean he will do it again, especially after going .229/53/11/47 last year. What saves Hardy from falling off to oblivion in my mind is his age. He will be 27 for the majority of the season, the magical age when young players blossom into studs. I do think Hardy's best years might have been those '07-'08 seasons, but since he is so young he has the chance to at least return to that form and put up high homer totals from a position weak in that category. Take a tip from Abba and take a chance on Hardy, especially when you can snag him as a last round flier.

WFS: NL Central

This is the third edition of a series of articles I will be writing, where I will pick out three players in each division of the majors and tell you whether I think they will be a Win, Fail or Sleeper in the 2010 campaign. The Win player will be a high pick (1st 5-6 rounds) that I think will reward you with quality, if not excellent production. The Fail player will be one who, you guessed it, will fail to meet expectations, and the sleeper is self explanatory.


Win: Brandon Phillips 2B, Cincinnati Reds (ADP: 38.73)
Phillips got a major boost in my books without even swinging a bat. When Brian Roberts tweaked back, the pool of second basemen got a little shallower, pushing Phillips up my board a few spots. The great thing about Phillips is that he won't hurt you in any of the categories in a normal 5x5, which is not something a lot of 2Bs can say. Brandon is one of only 7 players to have made it into the 30/30 club over the last 5 years, and has had at least 20 homers and stolen bases each of the last 2 years. Hitting from the cleanup spot in a productive Reds lineup allows Phillips to provide quality runs and RBIs as well. This leaves the ever fluctuating batting average category, which his career .265 mark does not really make you feel confident in. However, take out his horrendous rookie stint in Cleveland where he hit a whopping .208 over 370, and the rest of his resume looks a LOT better. Still, while I would never venture that he will hit .300 for you, he will probably hit in the .275-.280 range and that's all you really need to win. The fact that you are able to pick up a player who can produce in every category, at a position where only one other player (Utley) can claim that, in the 4th round makes Brandon Phillips a great option for any team.


Fail: Alfonso Soriano OF, Chicago Cubs (ADP: 82.56)
Going from a 30/30 club member to a jacket wearer from the even more exclusive 40/40 group. They have to get cool smoking jackets right? Unfortunately, last year I bought on Alfonso, thinking that he might come close to repeating one of his vintage Yankee, or even National years and return to form after an injury plagued 2008. Throw in the fact that he aged three years in one after they found out his real age a few years ago and you have an injury-risk who is 34 and hit .241 last year. Alfonso is being drafted as a top 25 OF ahead of consistent options (Hunter and Ibanez) as well as young studs on the rise (McLouth and McCutchen). While he might be a power source, since he still hit 20 homers last year in limited ABs, Alfonso is a guy I will definitely be passing on in this year's drafts, especially as my number 2 option in the OF.

Sleeper: Ryan Ludwick OF, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP: 167.56)
About a week ago, I did a draft that I felt pretty confident about, but when I sat down and laid out the projected stats for my starters, something jumped out at me. I had gone overboard in terms of stolen bases, especially in my outfield. While I had dual threats like Reimold, Choo and McCutchen, I had only complemented them with Ichiro, Nyjer Morgan and lacked real pop at the position. Ludwick is a guy that I really am trying to trade for to fix that problem. There are two major flaws in the Cardinal's hitter's game, his stolen bases and average. He has never shown a propensity to run and the only time Ludwick hit over .280 was due to the fact that he hit an otherworldly .342 on balls in play. But, if there is anything that my drafted team's outfield can show its that those two categories are fairly easy to come by. In terms of the other three categories, Ludwick is a quality producer that you can snag deep in the draft as one of your last outfielders. He is a guarantee to hit 20 HRs, probably more towards the 25-27 range, despite being the baseball definition of elderly at 32 years old. Oh, not to mention the fact that he hits in the 5 hole in a lineup where the best 3, 4 punch in the majors reside in front of him. He is going to have TONS of opportunities to hit runners in and will still get to score a fair amount from the young guns like Rasmus waiting behind him. Sure, Ludwick has some flaws, and he will never return to his 2008 self, but he is still a great hitter in one of the best lineup positions in baseball that you can pick up on the cheap.

Koooooouz!

The last few times that I was dragged to a Padre game to watch the franchise I once loved, I couldn't help but fall into a bit of a stupor watching each friar go to the plate only to walk back to the dugout after a few failed swings. During these zoning out times, there was usually one thing which broke me from the trance, when Kevin Kouzmanoff came to the plate. While he might not have been the best player on the team, the stadium would erupt with a loud, "Koooooooouz" as he walked up to the plate. It was nice to finally feel some life from the stands, even if it resulted in a strikeout about a quarter of the time. That's why I was a little teary when I heard the news that we had shipped him off to Oakland to man third base there. While it might make Padre games a little less exciting, if that was possible, the move makes Kouzmanoff a very intriguing pick for fantasy baseball this year.

Normally a guy who hit 18 homers, .255 and amassed a whopping 1 stolen base doesn't show up on the radar for fantasy purposes, especially in mixed leagues. While the Coliseum may not be the most hitter friendly park, it is a HUGE improvement over Petco Park, pictured above and better known as "the place where offense goes to die". Normally, the stats I put before would justify him not being selected in 85 percent of mock drafts, but the fact that Kouz is in a new stadium, combined with his road stats from last year and the power he showed at home that could lead to a breakout season in 2010.

First, let's look at his road numbers to help us get a glimpse at what he might be able to do once he escapes the downer that is known as being a Padre. To give you an example as to just how much he struggled at home, he had a BABIP of .247, compared to a more reasonable .317 away. Overall, in 69 games on the road, Kouzmanoff hit a very respectable .287 with 31 runs and 52 RBIs. Those are very good stats for a guy you can find on the waiver wire, especially at one of the weaker positions this year. Combine those numbers with the fact that he was able to hit 9 HRs at Petco, to emphasize his pure power, and that could lead to a line that looks something like this: 75/25/90/.277. With those kinds of numbers, the new A's 3B could really outperform guys being selected before him, like Troy Glaus or even his replacement, Chase Headley.

Even with all of these positive indicators for Kouzmanoff's performance outside of America's Finest City, I would never recommend to start Kouzmanoff. However, he is definitely someone to place on your watch list, or pick up as a backup option in case you missed out on studs like Longoria or Zimmerman, or even as the injury replacement for other starters like A-Rod or Wright. At the very least, you will be able to yell "Kooooouz" when he comes up to the plate, who doesn't want to do that?

Behind the Numbers: 3rd Round Starters

Think back to a draft you've done this year. Whether it be a quick mock, a draft with your buddies, or the $100,000 money league you play in every year. Now, think of the first 3 pitchers off the board. Lincecum, of course, followed somewhat closely by the new and improved NL version of Doc Halladay. Now who was third? This is where the consensus will stray. Was it the hat tilting, CC Sabathia? The diamond stuck in the Kansas City rough, Zack Greinke? Or was it the man who has been dubbed a king by middle-aged white men everywhere, Felix Hernandez? Each of these 3 pitchers has their own pitch as to why they should be the 3rd starter off the board in each and every league, and I am going to try and make sense of who the best of this trio actually is.

According to Mock Draft Central, the average order that these three go off the board is: CC at 30, Greinke at 31 and King Felix at 32. Now, my personal rankings look more like: Greinke, Felix and CC. The fine people at ESPN projected it to come out: Felix, CC and then Greinke. The combinations for how to rank these guys are endless. (Well actually there's only 6, but it seems like there's a bunch). So let's break down each aspect of their games, and see who should be at the top (or at least in third place) of your SP rankings.

ERA:
For guys in the offensively loaded American League, the only guy who put up a "normal" ERA number was Sabathia at 3.37. Meanwhile, Greinke and Hernandez were off the charts at 2.16 and 2.49 respectively. Sabathia's ERA should hover around that same number, since his career average is 3.62. Even Hernandez's figure seems somewhat repeatable, since the top aces in the league over the past few years has been around the 2.5-2.6 range, and Hernandez definitely has the stuff of an ace. Greinke is where the ERA department becomes dangerous. Last year, the Royals' star went out and hung a number so wicked that only steroid-era Clemens and vintage Pedro could compare with. What makes this even more amazing was that it was in the offensively charged AL, as well as a division that hosts 3 of the top 10 offensive ballparks, with his home at Kauffman coming in at number 5. Move him to Petco and we might have seen a sub-2.00 ERA. That's what makes him the most interesting in this group, in terms of ERA. While I think Greinke is a stud who will dominate, the odds of him repeating seem a lot lower to me. I decided to favor the repeatability of Hernandez's ERA over Greinke's, but only by a small margin. With that, the way they rank in terms of ERA looks like:
Hernandez (2.4), Greinke(2.40001)... Sabathia(3.25)

Wins:
While CC might fall far behind the other two starters in terms of ERA, this is where he separates himself. The Mariners have so much unknown within their lineup, that I can't tell whether they will put up enough runs to win games for Felix. There is no unknown, just losing, out in Kansas City, so this is where Greinke's major downfall is. That leaves Sabathia and his silver spoon, as he gets to go out and make all sorts of mistakes, only to have A-Rod or Teixeira make up for it. That's one of the perks you get when you trade in your soul for the New York bucks. Even though wins are the hardest stat to anticipate; with these guys they are fairly easy to predict how they will come out:
Sabathia(19), Hernandez(18/17), Greinke(16)

WHIP:
Very similar to the ERA category, all three of these guys will help to put up nasty WHIP figures. I really didn't see anything that stood out to make me think it would differ any this year. So, they rank something like this in 2010:
Greinke(1.10), Hernandez(1.11), Sabathia(1.16)

Ks:
Most people think that when you pick starters, this is the stat you should focus on, since most of the other categories vary from year to year. I am one of those that adhere to that doctrine. I like pitchers like Verlander and Lester because as long as they get a little more lucky, or a bit of extra defense, all of the other numbers will go down, where as a pitcher has to adopt a whole different pitch or motion to increase their K totals. Greinke ranked 3rd in the majors with his 242 Ks, but what was more impressive was his 9.5 K/9 ratio. Both Felix and CC put up great K numbers in similar innings, and should both get around 200-210 punchouts, which is a very respectable number. As a disclaimer, don't look at CC's 250 Ks in 08 and think that last year was a fluke. He logged 250 innings that year as the Brewers rode his hot streak and had him pitch just about every day, it seemed. The Yankees have no reason to ever wear him like that, so the 197 he put up last year seems a lot more reasonable. These three guys should finish out with numbers like these:
Greinke(240), Hernandez(210), Sabathia(199)

So with that said, looking at those numbers, I stand by the rankings I put in my intro. I like Greinke the best, since he will guarantee you Ks, and while his win numbers might be subpar, they are so unreliable that who knows, maybe he will win every start he makes. Of course the scores will all be 1-0, but whatever works. Along that same logic, I like Felix as my 4th ranked SP, since he is a young stud with great stuff. Of course, CC's no slouch, and if you want guaranteed Wins, you can't go wrong with a Bankee. I guess the best advice I can give is to wait. With these three guys being so comparable, and all having their own stud categories, I would sit and let my leaguemates make the tough decision and take the remaining player of this trio.