Bill James is probably one of the most interesting people on Earth. I mean, what's not riveting about a middle-aged guy who found a way to turn a passionate thing like sports into a system of numbers? Now when we see a shoestring catch we think, "if he had a better UZR rating, he would have been able to get that easy". But the sabermetric revolution would not have lasted this long if it didn't work. The entire concept of Billy Beane's Moneyball teams rode on the back of sabermetrics, and that worked out pretty well for the financial minnow of baseball. With all of this focus on the numbers behind baseball players, why are we still dependent on completion percentage, yards per carry and yards after first contact? Because, for the most part, the stats we have found define the players' effects on their respective teams to a reasonable extent. Of course, that doesn't mean we can't tinker with the data a little and see what we can find.
Since I have become somewhat obsessed with PPR, I decided to turn to the position most affected by the slight nuances of these leagues, WR. When I sat down to plan out how I would measure receivers, I figured that stats like catches, targets and yards per catch all played a significant role in the receivers game. The targets signify the beginning of the play, as the quarterback looks and throws to the wideout. The catches and YPC, in turn, represent the WR's ability to catch the ball and get yardage. In theory, these three stats put together would hopefully lend a bit of information to just how effective fantasy WRs are.
First I created a list of 50 players who are bound to be rostered in most PPR leagues, and collected their catches, targets and YPC numbers. I then calculated their reception % using tons of upper level math skills (catches/ targets). I took the averages of these stats to find out what to normally expect from a top 50 wideout and then the questionable stuff started. I took the average REC % and divided it by the YPC number to and multiplied the YPC average by what I found. This way, the reception percentage and YPC would be worth the same when I added them together. I then multiplied the REC % by 3, to add value since its PPR, and because there isn't much the receiver can do if they drop the ball every chance they get. Values ranged from 179.47 (Eddie Royal) to 277.98.
So who was this mystery man with the highest rating on my (very imperfect) receiver efficiency ratings? Let's take a look at him and a few other notables from my list.
August 29, 2010
August 26, 2010
Leinart Finds the Pine, Fitzgerald Owners Rejoice
When the interviewer asked Ken Whisenhunt what he expected out of Derek Anderson during his preseason start Saturday he replied with, "first downs". If that doesn't sum up Matt Leinart's inefficiencies I don't know what will. The fantasy community has been clamoring for someone to take the helm from the Trojan bust, and the Cardinal coach has finally taken the hint.
Sure, the first thing which will probably come to mind is that game last year where he went 2 for 17 with an INT at Buffalo. But he is also the guy who connected on 29 touchdowns and about 3800 yards. Anderson showed in a few limited stints with the Browns that he can be a fantasy contributor despite a terrible cast. Give him a few great pass catchers and I'm intrigued. While I don't advise picking him up any time soon I like the prospects of someone not named Leinart at QB1.
Now, assuming that Anderson can hold onto the job and put up even a fraction of the gawdy numbers that Kurt Warner has posted over the last few years, I see a notable jump in Larry Fitzgerald's value coming. All Anderson has to do is not suck and hold onto the job. Please God, for Larry Fitzgerald's sake, don't fail me now.
Sure, the first thing which will probably come to mind is that game last year where he went 2 for 17 with an INT at Buffalo. But he is also the guy who connected on 29 touchdowns and about 3800 yards. Anderson showed in a few limited stints with the Browns that he can be a fantasy contributor despite a terrible cast. Give him a few great pass catchers and I'm intrigued. While I don't advise picking him up any time soon I like the prospects of someone not named Leinart at QB1.
Now, assuming that Anderson can hold onto the job and put up even a fraction of the gawdy numbers that Kurt Warner has posted over the last few years, I see a notable jump in Larry Fitzgerald's value coming. All Anderson has to do is not suck and hold onto the job. Please God, for Larry Fitzgerald's sake, don't fail me now.
Breakout Player of the Year: Malcolm Floyd
Before you read about the next star wideout, make sure you enter the cash contest here: http://www.fantasysportscircle.com/2010/08/fantasy-football-naming-contest-win.html
To preface this post, let me just say that although I may have grown up in San Diego I am far from a Charger homer. So don't start giving me the, "Oh you just love the new go to Charger" treatment. As a matter of fact, I could not dislike Philip Rivers much more if he started throwing puppies instead of footballs one practice. But as I watch the preseason games for the Bolts this year, I can't tell you how high I am on Malcolm Floyd this year. Hell, even Ricky Williams couldn't explain how high that is. Let's break down the situation a little and I'll show you why he deserves much better than his 103.30 ADP in standard leagues.
First, the physical statures of these guys are nearly identical. Sure VJax has a few more lbs on him to help move defenders around, but Floyd possesses the height that Philip Rivers loves. Speed is a wash as both ran in the 4.4s at their respective combines. They each have spent multiple seasons with the San Diego squad, eliminating any problems with routes or plays.
So what has separated these players in the past? One word: situation. While Floyd struggled for targets as a deep threat, Jackson was Rivers' first choice if Antonio Gates was blanketed by the D. Now that reports are flowing in that Jackson won't play a single down in a Charger uniform, Floyd instantly shoots to the top of their depth chart, increasing his worth tenfold. After watching the most recent preseason game, my suspicions seemed to be proven as Rivers turned to Floyd as though his former number one had never even left.
That's how I see this situation unfolding. If you decide to take a chance on the new Chargers WR1, you will draft a guy who wears a different number, but puts up the same numbers as Vincent Jackson. And in fantasy, isn't that what its all about.
My Final Prediction:
88 Catches, 1160 Yards, 9 TDs. In other words, go get him now.
First, the physical statures of these guys are nearly identical. Sure VJax has a few more lbs on him to help move defenders around, but Floyd possesses the height that Philip Rivers loves. Speed is a wash as both ran in the 4.4s at their respective combines. They each have spent multiple seasons with the San Diego squad, eliminating any problems with routes or plays.
So what has separated these players in the past? One word: situation. While Floyd struggled for targets as a deep threat, Jackson was Rivers' first choice if Antonio Gates was blanketed by the D. Now that reports are flowing in that Jackson won't play a single down in a Charger uniform, Floyd instantly shoots to the top of their depth chart, increasing his worth tenfold. After watching the most recent preseason game, my suspicions seemed to be proven as Rivers turned to Floyd as though his former number one had never even left.
That's how I see this situation unfolding. If you decide to take a chance on the new Chargers WR1, you will draft a guy who wears a different number, but puts up the same numbers as Vincent Jackson. And in fantasy, isn't that what its all about.
My Final Prediction:
88 Catches, 1160 Yards, 9 TDs. In other words, go get him now.
August 25, 2010
5 Fantasy Football Draft Day (and Full Season) Tips
As fantasy football season approaches, the air around here begins to smell of sheets of paper, spreadsheets and winning. Its the most wonderful time of the year. (Take that Christmas). The pinnacle of this 4 month celebration is draft day. It sets all of the waivers, trades and of course tall tales of one point losses on Monday night into motion. Sure, the majority of our teams will probably be demolished by some freak leafblowing accident that our star running back will sustain. But not on draft day. On that one day before the season starts, all of your players have 1000 yard seasons ahead of them... if all goes right. With all of those great feelings and emotions in mind, here's five things to keep in mind going into that glorious day, and all of the fun that follows it.
1. Do Due Diligence-
My five year-old sense of humor took over here when I saw "do due", but that's beside the point. Going into a fantasy football draft without first sitting down and mapping out your thoughts on players is like stepping into the octagon against Anderson Silva knowing that your only fighting experience was the wrestling you and your brother did when you were five. Tom Brady might be good and all, but when you decide to spend the number one overall pick on him, you know your research was faulty.
A lot of the "experts" out there will caution you from using magazines, unless they're selling one of course. However, I definitely like to use outside sources to create my rankings. It helps to temper any irrational crushes I might have. What I would advise people doing their research to do is write down how they would rank the players and then compare it to a list by the major fantasy sports outlets (ESPN, CBS, etc.) and see if there are any major discrepancies. If there are, take a second look at their stats and situations, and decide if maybe you were a little uninformed on a guy. Of course, the expert sites can always be wrong too.
To sum it all up, make sure you do your homework before you go to your draft. That way you can get the players that YOU want.
2. Keep your Eye on the Bye-
One of the biggest mistakes I notice other owners make is selecting too many players with the same bye week. With only 7 weeks for all of the 32 teams to take their week off, there are bound to be some players that cannot fill the bench role behind your starters. Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez are popular picks as backup QBs this year, especially if you picked a quarterback early. Not much risk, huge potential rewards. However, if that early QB was Peyton Manning or Matt Schaub, you will find yourself looking at no startable option in week 7 when all 4 of their teams go on bye. Now you would have to find some other way to scrape the bottom of the free agent barrell, and release a valuable position player in the meantime. When every week can mean the difference between missing or making the playoffs, ensuring that you have a useable player during the bye weeks can mean a tremendous amount.
1. Do Due Diligence-
My five year-old sense of humor took over here when I saw "do due", but that's beside the point. Going into a fantasy football draft without first sitting down and mapping out your thoughts on players is like stepping into the octagon against Anderson Silva knowing that your only fighting experience was the wrestling you and your brother did when you were five. Tom Brady might be good and all, but when you decide to spend the number one overall pick on him, you know your research was faulty.
A lot of the "experts" out there will caution you from using magazines, unless they're selling one of course. However, I definitely like to use outside sources to create my rankings. It helps to temper any irrational crushes I might have. What I would advise people doing their research to do is write down how they would rank the players and then compare it to a list by the major fantasy sports outlets (ESPN, CBS, etc.) and see if there are any major discrepancies. If there are, take a second look at their stats and situations, and decide if maybe you were a little uninformed on a guy. Of course, the expert sites can always be wrong too.
To sum it all up, make sure you do your homework before you go to your draft. That way you can get the players that YOU want.
2. Keep your Eye on the Bye-
One of the biggest mistakes I notice other owners make is selecting too many players with the same bye week. With only 7 weeks for all of the 32 teams to take their week off, there are bound to be some players that cannot fill the bench role behind your starters. Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez are popular picks as backup QBs this year, especially if you picked a quarterback early. Not much risk, huge potential rewards. However, if that early QB was Peyton Manning or Matt Schaub, you will find yourself looking at no startable option in week 7 when all 4 of their teams go on bye. Now you would have to find some other way to scrape the bottom of the free agent barrell, and release a valuable position player in the meantime. When every week can mean the difference between missing or making the playoffs, ensuring that you have a useable player during the bye weeks can mean a tremendous amount.
August 23, 2010
PPR Fantasy Football: ADP Battles
Quick Announcement: Make sure you check out the FSC Contest here! If you've ever been called creative, even by your grandma, win some money!
Ok, with that shameless promotion out of the way. One of the sources I consult the most when preparing for my fantasy drafts is MockDraftCentral. If you have never been there, prepare to have your mind blown. Wonder if you can wait for your 7th round pick to select Wes Welker? Just look at the latest Average Draft Positions (or ADPs) and you'll notice that he is already a steal in 12 teamers, as he usually goes in the early 5th. Now, that situation has the same odds as me owning 8 Ferraris, but that's what America's all about.
During my latest trip to MDC, I noticed a few players who had interchangeable ADPs and decided to sit down and think through who should go first. These are those observations:
Randy Moss (ADP: 9.90) vs. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 9.92)
Fitzy might have the advantage in age, but thats about it in my mind. They each are extremely talented pass catchers who have put up jaw-dropping numbers in the past. What sets these two studs apart in my mind are there situations. One (Moss) has a Pro Bowl quarterback throwing passes to him. The other (Fitzgerald) is helping to introduce a young QB into the league, who has already shown he can be ineffective at this level. Moss has the best complement WR on the other side of the field in Wes Welker. Fitzgerald just watched Anquan Boldin leave town, turning all of the defenses' eyes on him. Moss' situation seems infinitely better than Fitzgerald's, and it makes me really question why people are picking them in the same slot.
Chris Wells (36.37) vs. LeSean McCoy (36.49)
Here's another Cardinal being selected at the same point as a positionmate. The similarities between these guys extend further than their position of choice, though. Both can catch out of the backfield. Both are youngins being counted on in powerful offenses. Both lost their 2009 quarterbacks. Not to mention, "Beanie and McCoy" could make an excellent cop drama name. Who do I think should go before the other? I don't think there is much of a major difference between these guys. What I can say is that both LeSean and Beanie are going much later than I would let them in PPR. Pass-catching backs are hard to come by, especially ones who are the focal points of above average offenses. These guys should each be taken at the beginning of the 3rd round.
Ronnie Brown (55.19) vs. Felix Jones (55.19)
More similarities are bound. Brown and Jones are each injury prone, and have shown that they can be incendiary. The major downside to each of these guys is that neither has a clear shot to 250 carries. Sure Ronnie will get a healthy amount of touches out of the Wildcat, but he still has to share a backfield with Ricky Williams, who was serviceable when he took over late last year. Jones has Marion Barber still stuck in the RB1 position on the depth chart, but he can produce even with limited carries. To borrow a term from the world of finance, I would classify this battle as a hold. If Felix manages his way into the starting spot before Week 1, he instantly becomes the favorite. Otherwise, I like Ronnie by a nose.
Malcolm Floyd (96.27) vs. Santonio Holmes (96.65)
I'm just going to flat out say it: I have NO idea why these guys are so close together in ADP. Holmes will only play in 75% of the games this year, and who knows where he will fit into the depth chart. As Vincent Jackson's holdout continues, Floyd is really starting to look like a golden goose in my eyes. The Chargers are going to air it out no matter what, and having the number one option for Philip Rivers a tremendous asset to have. Santonio has character problems and will have to try and step into a team that has already gelled for four weeks. Floyd has so much upside that I wholeheartedly think he deserves a 7th round pick, since I see his baseline being a WR3, more likely turning into a WR2. Remember, Vincent Jackson wasn't much but a 6'5" physical specimen before becoming a fantasy stud, the same situation Floyd finds himself in now.
Do you agree with these battles? Or am I just blowin' smoke? Let me know in the comments section below.
Ok, with that shameless promotion out of the way. One of the sources I consult the most when preparing for my fantasy drafts is MockDraftCentral. If you have never been there, prepare to have your mind blown. Wonder if you can wait for your 7th round pick to select Wes Welker? Just look at the latest Average Draft Positions (or ADPs) and you'll notice that he is already a steal in 12 teamers, as he usually goes in the early 5th. Now, that situation has the same odds as me owning 8 Ferraris, but that's what America's all about.
During my latest trip to MDC, I noticed a few players who had interchangeable ADPs and decided to sit down and think through who should go first. These are those observations:
Randy Moss (ADP: 9.90) vs. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 9.92)
Fitzy might have the advantage in age, but thats about it in my mind. They each are extremely talented pass catchers who have put up jaw-dropping numbers in the past. What sets these two studs apart in my mind are there situations. One (Moss) has a Pro Bowl quarterback throwing passes to him. The other (Fitzgerald) is helping to introduce a young QB into the league, who has already shown he can be ineffective at this level. Moss has the best complement WR on the other side of the field in Wes Welker. Fitzgerald just watched Anquan Boldin leave town, turning all of the defenses' eyes on him. Moss' situation seems infinitely better than Fitzgerald's, and it makes me really question why people are picking them in the same slot.
Chris Wells (36.37) vs. LeSean McCoy (36.49)
Here's another Cardinal being selected at the same point as a positionmate. The similarities between these guys extend further than their position of choice, though. Both can catch out of the backfield. Both are youngins being counted on in powerful offenses. Both lost their 2009 quarterbacks. Not to mention, "Beanie and McCoy" could make an excellent cop drama name. Who do I think should go before the other? I don't think there is much of a major difference between these guys. What I can say is that both LeSean and Beanie are going much later than I would let them in PPR. Pass-catching backs are hard to come by, especially ones who are the focal points of above average offenses. These guys should each be taken at the beginning of the 3rd round.
Ronnie Brown (55.19) vs. Felix Jones (55.19)
More similarities are bound. Brown and Jones are each injury prone, and have shown that they can be incendiary. The major downside to each of these guys is that neither has a clear shot to 250 carries. Sure Ronnie will get a healthy amount of touches out of the Wildcat, but he still has to share a backfield with Ricky Williams, who was serviceable when he took over late last year. Jones has Marion Barber still stuck in the RB1 position on the depth chart, but he can produce even with limited carries. To borrow a term from the world of finance, I would classify this battle as a hold. If Felix manages his way into the starting spot before Week 1, he instantly becomes the favorite. Otherwise, I like Ronnie by a nose.
Malcolm Floyd (96.27) vs. Santonio Holmes (96.65)
I'm just going to flat out say it: I have NO idea why these guys are so close together in ADP. Holmes will only play in 75% of the games this year, and who knows where he will fit into the depth chart. As Vincent Jackson's holdout continues, Floyd is really starting to look like a golden goose in my eyes. The Chargers are going to air it out no matter what, and having the number one option for Philip Rivers a tremendous asset to have. Santonio has character problems and will have to try and step into a team that has already gelled for four weeks. Floyd has so much upside that I wholeheartedly think he deserves a 7th round pick, since I see his baseline being a WR3, more likely turning into a WR2. Remember, Vincent Jackson wasn't much but a 6'5" physical specimen before becoming a fantasy stud, the same situation Floyd finds himself in now.
Do you agree with these battles? Or am I just blowin' smoke? Let me know in the comments section below.
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