Player Snapshot: Austin Jackson

I haven't posted much recently because, well, I don't really like to start anointing guys as the next coming of Pujols after a single series. If the Phillies got to play the Nationals everyday Ryan Howard would probably end the season with his current .400 average and probably break the home run record by a good 20 dingers. Nevertheless, we all know that 3 games do not make a season, so we should temper our puppy love for the early fantasy studs. But, as I say that I don't like to make judgments after a fast start, I'm here to talk about a guy I do like after his first 3 games, Austin Jackson.

While his numbers, outside of his average, do not really jump out at you (2/.333/2/0/0) I am very intrigued by the fact that his 5 hits are composed of a single, 3 doubles and a triple. His impressive slugging percentage, .667, has come in a ballpark that is only rivaled by Petco Park and Progressive Field in terms of its lack of home runs. Not only has he been hindered by the park he visited, but he had to face the ace that is Zack Greinke, as well as bat in front of Johnny Damon, who is on a very cold streak. Each of these conditions has held Jackson's production down a bit, and he is still excelling for a rookie.

What I like most about the young Tigers CF are the non-statistical characteristics. For instance, in order for Detroit to trade away a proven star like Curtis Granderson, they had to have been expecting a healthy amount of talent in return. While Max Scherzer is a quality prospect, Jackson was the star of the deal, and since their scouts probably know more about prospecting than me I will take their word that he is worth Grandy. Despite the fact that Damon has been so cold in these first few games, he still gets to hit in front of run producers like Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen, meaning that as long as he continues to get on there is a very good chance of him scoring.

Now back to his stats, and since he hasn't played in majors I'll focus on his minor league numbers as indicators of what he can do. Jackson's homer totals might not break into double digits this year, or anytime soon for that matter, but he can be a major producer in runs, as stated above, and stolen bases, as witnessed at the AAA level. Last year he swiped 24 bags, a pretty impressive number and he is still only 23, so he has fresh legs. He's also one of the only people in the Detroit who has a healthy amount of speed, so if Leyland decides to be a bit daring and run, look for him to turn to Jackson to get the steal.

I really like what I've seen so far this year out of Jackson, and his pedigree says that he should be able to keep up a pretty healthy pace throughout the season. But before you go dropping Carlos Quentin for AJax, make sure that you temper your expectations a little and wait a bit. If you are in the market for a guy who can hit .290, steal 25 bases and score 90 runs, I think Jackson could really be your guy.

Knee Jerk Reactions: Opening Day

Well Opening Day has officially ended, and now its time to embark on that 161 game trip to the end of the season. Well, unless you're the Orioles or Rays, that is. But the future and the playoffs seem so far away. So let's reflect on the opening games and see what is the most important info to take away. Oh, and I might talk about that Heyward guy somewhere in there.

Business as Usual:

• Albert Pujols had an unbelievable line going 4 for 5, with 2 homers, 3 RBIs and a run to match every hit. This would be big news if there weren't commercials proclaiming him as the best hitter in baseball during his games.
• Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay showed why they were the undisputed top 2 starters off the board. Each went 7 innings and recorded a run. Halladay had 2 more Ks, but Lincecum didn't give up a run. If you had either one of these guys starting in a roto league, you are probably towards the top of your standings right now.
• Zack Greinke went 6 innings and only allowed one run. Of course, being a Royal prevented him from getting the all important W. It would be interesting to see just what kind of record he could rack up without a terrible bullpen/offense.

 Great Starts:

• It would be hard to write an opening day blog and leave out the man I so crudely photo-shopped into a Superman costume. Jason Heyward looked very impressive after going 2-4 with 4 RBIs. In addition to his bomb in his first career at-bat, I was scared for Justin Berg on Jay-Hey's single up the middle. He hit it so hard that I was afraid it might just knock the Cubs pitcher's leg right off.
• Even after an explosive day from "The Machine" the MLB leader in RBIs is Placido Polanco after the first day. If you picked him to give you some cheap, average boosting hits, and some runs, courtesy of the Phillies' stacked lineup, you sure had a nice surprise. There's nothing better than getting a grand slam and 6 RBIs from a late pick, in a single game.
• Garrett Jones showed his legit power by hitting a dinger to right and left field. Even though the Pirates lineup looked pretty atrocious on paper, they managed to hang a wicked number on Vicente Padilla thanks to Jones. Maybe next year Joe Torre won't start a has been on Opening Day.
• Despite going 0-3, Chone Figgins had 2 runs and is the league leader, for the time being, with 2 stolen bases. Imagine what he might be able to do if he actually got a hit.

Stumbled out the Gate:

• The opening night game featured a poor performance from Josh Beckett. While his roto stats were mediocre, the stat that was most alarming was that he had only made the Yankee hitters miss once midway through his start. If Beckett can't miss the hitters' bats it will be a long season of 1 strikeout starts.
• If anyone thought they were getting a consistent starter in Carlos Zambrano, they were sadly mistaken. Big Z was absolutely shellacked by the Braves, making him the goat of the day. It is days like Zambrano's that scare me from trying streaming in a head to head league.
• While the three most fantasy relevant Padres (Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Headley and Kyle Blanks) all had homers (even though the last two were completely irrelevant), I still hung my head as a Friar fan. Stephen Drew's inside-the-park homer made me shudder. It was a rocky start, that's for sure.
• Jason Frasor took the ball in his first save attempt this year and ended up with a loss as well as an astronomical ERA. It would seem that he is instantly on the hot seat, since they have Kevin Gregg and Scott Downs waiting in the wings. If you have Frasor and a bench player you don't mind dropping I'd snatch up Gregg just to be safe.

I hope that all of your season's have gotten off to a good start. If not, then I hope it turns around quick.

Also, if you would like any fantasy advice with lineups, matchups or trades, feel free to comment.

20 Last Minute Predictions

The MLB season will kick off with a bang on Sunday with the biggest baseball rivalry being rekindled in Boston. So once you p-ahk your self in your wicked comfy recliner to watch the S-ahx play them damn Yankees, the first pitch will be thrown and all of this preseason work constructing our teams will finally pay off. Hold that thought though, I decided I'd sit down and lay out some last minute predictions for the 2010 season. So bookmark this page and bring it up at the end of the season when I miss on all of them.

1.  David Wright will hit the 25/25 again. The Mets will still suck though.
2.  Tommy Hanson will finish in the top 5 of NL Cy Young voting.
3.  Roy Halladay will end up winning the award.
4.  Rajai Davis will swipe 50 bases. Rickey Henderson said so. That makes it fact.
5.  After hitting .275, Jay Bruce will cement himself as the 5th hitter in the Reds lineup and become a 3rd round pick in 2011.
6.  Max Scherzer will strikeout 200 in his first real major league season.
7.  Despite his impressive Spring, Stephen Strasburg will underwhelm when he makes it to the majors.
8.  Adam Laroche will have 84 articles written about how good he is after the All-Star Break and his trade value at that point will be completely unreasonable.
9.  One of the three main Padres sleepers (Everth Cabrera, Chase Headley and Kyle Blanks) will emerge as a fantasy mainstay for years to come.
10.  Brandon Wood will not breakout. Again.
11.  Jason Frasor will save 30+ games.
12.  Manny Ramirez will hit the most homers out of any Dodgers outfielder.
13.  Josh Hamilton will redeem himself, and remind people why he was a top-30 pick last year.
14.  Milton Bradley will end up on the DL due to some ridiculous cause. (Vegas has 3:1 odds on the incident involving a "lazy susan")
15.  Barry Zito will become fantasy relevant this year.
16.  Kendry Morales will be a top 5 first baseman in next year's drafts.
17.  The AL Rookie of the Year will go to Brian Matusz after winning 15 games for a mediocre Orioles team.
    
18.  Justin Morneau will drive in 120 runs again.
19.  A minor league team will follow through on the Tim Lincecum bobblehead idea and use real hair to emulate one of their players.
20.  Colby Rasmus will be the year's best comeback sleeper, hitting 20 homers and swiping 15 bags.

Well there you have em, I wish everyone the best of luck in this year's fantasy season. Unless your in my leagues that is.

WFS: NL East

This is the last edition of a series of articles I will be writing, where I pick out three players in each division of the majors and tell you whether I think they will be a Win, Fail or Sleeper in the 2010 campaign. The Win player will be a high pick (1st 5-6 rounds) that I think will reward you with quality, if not excellent production. The Fail player will be one who, you guessed it, will fail to meet expectations, and the sleeper is self explanatory.


Win: Ryan Zimmerman 3B, Washington Nationals (ADP: 34.84)
Let's play a quick game of which third baseman would you rather have!

Player A 2009 Stats: 100/33/113/9/.281, 24 Years Old
Player B 2009 Stats: 110/33/106/2/.292, 25 Years Old

Seems pretty even. Now what if I said that the Player B could be had 2 full rounds later in your draft? Well that would certainly make the lack of 7 SBs seem like a pretty minuscule difference. That's what happens when guys like Evan Longoria (aka Player A) get on the cover of MLB 2K10 and Ryan Zimmerman gets hidden in Washington. This ADP discrepancy is derived more from Zimmerman's anonymity than Longoria's stardom. Both of these guys should be early second rounders, since they provide elite power numbers from a position that is very shallow. I mean the fact that some people have to start Chipper Jones should give you some urgency to draft a third baseman early. There's really no statistics that point to a regression from Zimmerman, so he should make a real steal in the 3rd round.

Fail: Carlos Beltran OF, New York Mets (ADP: 93.62)
When I started sifting through the ADPs of the players in the NL East, I figured with the Mets and Nats both residing here that this would be the easiest portion of the article to fill. Amazingly enough, I found the majority of the guys on these bad, bad teams to be going right about where they should. In the end it came down to Beltran, Jose Reyes and Johan, three injury prone guys from the same team. I decided to leave Reyes alone since there is still so much unknown with his condition, and say what you will about Johan, but he was still pretty impressive last year in limited play. That left me with Beltran, who still played a relatively good game in 2009, but his age and position scare me. When guys who will give you guaranteed numbers are going nearby (see: Ibanez, Raul and Hunter, Torii) it is hard to justify spending a pick on Beltran when he might only play half the season. Even if he were to play the whole year, you could argue that playing in CitiField would only make his numbers fairly even with the aforementioned guys who don't come with so much risk. Beltran was a total stud back in his Royal days, but I just don't see him being in the shape that he needs to be to warrant a 10th round pick. Go with one of the younger guys on the upswing in their careers, like McLouth and McCutchen and leave the injury risk for another owner.

Sleeper: J.A. Happ SP, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 259.92)
It would be really easy to take advantage of the fact that Mock Draft Central has Jason Heyward with an ADP of 205.46, and I have too much respect for you guys to do that to you. Instead, I'm going to go with one of the big surprises from last year, who still isn't getting much love. J.A. Happ is moving permanently into the rotation of one of the best teams in baseball, behind a guy so intelligent in the game that they nicknamed him Doc. While Happ's win total and ERA were out of this world, his K rate left something to be desired. What makes this okay though, is that he posted a very impressive 10.07 K/9 in his final AAA year before being called up. He has shown he can strike out a hefty amount of batters, so as he gains more experience his major league total should rise as well. There's really no doubt in my mind that his ERA will come back down to Earth, since its pretty hard to improve on 2.93 without being an ace. But, while that number goes down, his win total should go up to somewhere in the 15-17 range, since he has such a high powered offense behind him. If you are like me and save a few slots towards the end of your rotation for sleeper starters there aren't many other guys in the 250 range that I would pick over Happ and his potential.

WFS: AL East

This is the fifth edition of a series of articles I will be writing, where I will pick out three players in each division of the majors and tell you whether I think they will be a Win, Fail or Sleeper in the 2010 campaign. The Win player will be a high pick (1st 5-6 rounds) that I think will reward you with quality, if not excellent production. The Fail player will be one who, you guessed it, will fail to meet expectations, and the sleeper is self explanatory.

Win: Curtis Granderson OF, New York Yankees (ADP: 51.05)
I wrote in the AL Central Article about how Johnny Damon would not be a good fantasy option now that he had left Yankee Stadium for Comerica Park. Granderson made the exact opposite move this offseason despite the fact that the two outfielders were not traded for one another. While Damon will lose the easy lefty homers that the New York stadium couldn't hold. Granderson, on the other hand, will have a number of his long fly balls to left field be turned into homers. Combine that with the fact that he hit 30 homers and swiped 20 bases last year, and you have a player who could very easily go 35/25. There are some minor questions regarding RBIs and runs, but playing in the most high-powered offense in the AL removes a lot of those doubts. The major knock on the Yankees' CF is his average, which was an abysmal .249 in 2009. While this makes him a major liability in roto leagues, there are definite reasons to expect a turnaround in that category. First off, he is a career .272 hitter, including last year's stats which drag the number down. Granderson also hit .275 on balls in play, which while only somewhat lower than average, is a significant low for a guy with the kind of speed that he possesses. As long as he can be a bit more "lucky" when he makes contact, Granderson should hit somewhere in the .270-.280 range, making him very comparable to Grady Sizemore, except 2-3 rounds later.

Fail: Brian Roberts 2B, Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 48.67)
Roberts had begun to slip in drafts due to his highly-publicized back issues, but as he seems to recover he has moved back into the 4th round. Roberts is definitely a legit 2B starter, but he is being drafted among the likes of a few players I would much rather have. Guys like Cano, Hill and Zobrist are all going around the same draft slot, despite the fact that they possess power, an attribute that is rare at their position. Cano hits behind some of the best hitters in baseball, Hill had an unbelievable year hitting 36 homers and Zobrist hit 25/15 and has outfield eligibility. Meanwhile, Roberts is only a minor power threat, who can steal somewhere in the 30 SB range, however, with his speed numbers slumping even 30 seems like it could be a stretch. Steals are abundant in the OF, and can be found much later on, whereas homers and RBIs are much harder to find, especially at second. Even if Roberts plays the entire season with limited pain and missed time, he still might not match the numbers of other comparable 2Bs, so why take the chance?

Sleeper: Jeff Niemann SP, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 214.85)
A lot of the guys I have selected throughout these WFS columns have ended up being 27, without picking them for that reason. Well, Niemann is yet another one of those guys entering the year that many people believe is the best bet for a breakout season by a player. Niemann already showed last year that he can survive in the Murderer's Row that is the AL East, going 13-6 with a very respectable 3.94 ERA. While his K rate (6.23 per 9) was less than stellar, he has shown an ability to post big strikeout numbers in the minors, so he may increase his total with a little experience under his belt. He also saw his K/9 number shoot up throughout the season, a sign of his experience kicking in.
He plays for a great team, playing together for one of the last times as baseball's "highest bidder" mentality will rob them of some of their free agents. With that motivation, he could very well post the same type of wins total. I don't really expect his ERA and WHIP numbers to come down that much, but they were respectable to begin with, for a late round sleeper pick. There really isn't much risk that comes with these picks, so taking a chance on a guy who could improve on numbers like Niemann's would make a great steal as  a starter to round out your rotation.