Fantasy Impact: Getting Back in Gear

It's week 5 and you know what that means! Suspensions are over! Hip Hip Hooray! I can only imagine the poor football players who were separated from their teams, running across open fields to their awaiting head coaches and teammates. (In slo-mo of course) It would surely be a beautiful sight to see.

Ok, that's enough with that fantasy. Let's move to the other one. The one where we score points, and talk trash and whatnot. Three major players will return to the NFL this week, even if one has to wait until week 6 to make his debut. So what kind of fantasy impact can we expect from these players? Let's take a look.


Brian Cushing LB, Texans
There's nothing better than a linebacker on 'roids. Their success is based upon how hard and often they hit people. Sounds like a match made in heaven. The defending NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year has shown that he can be a dominant force in the rushing and passing game, registering 133 tackles, 4 sacks and 4 INTs. So what does that mean going forward? A lot more troubles for teams facing the Texans. While Houston has been a sieve in the passing game, its run defense has held up quite nicely, allowing only 70.3 yards a game (2nd best in the NFL). Adding a perennial Pro-Bowl candidate back into that equation makes opposing offenses even less likely to move the ball on the ground, and makes passes across the middle all the more difficult. If Cushing comes back with a chip on his shoulder, he could be angry, and you won't like him when he's angry. So watch out when playing your star RB against the Texans' D, they might not be the beautiful match-up they once were.


Ben Roethlisberger QB, Steelers
Probably the most publicized suspension of them all, Big Ben won't get to return to a game until next week against the Browns. For a guy who received so much criticism, talk about a warm welcome. Not only does he get a bye week, but he gets to go up against the cake walk that is the Browns' pass coverage. There's no doubt that this is still Roethlisberger's team, since Mike Tomlin took the keys from Charlie Batch like he was a SADD member at a frat party.

The reports thus far of Roethlisberger's arm have been great, and it looks like he will pick up where he left off last year, posting his best fantasy season of his career. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts without Santonio Holmes (more on him in a second), but I expect Mike Wallace to pick up the slack, and Hines Ward to be his great ole self. Look for a spike in production in both of the Steelers' receivers, and a few big weeks out of Big Ben, as he tries to play his way back into the people's hearts. 

Santonio Holmes WR, Jets

What will Ben and Santonio do without each other?

Hey, speak of the devil, look who it is. No, not the devil. Although, will all of his legal troubles he might be able to run for election. After an incident at a nightclub (how many times have we heard that before?), Holmes was suspended by the league and was traded to the Jets for a pack of gum. The receiver who went for 1248 yards and 5 TDs, will definitely experience a downgrade in QB play, since Sanchez is no where near Roethlisberger in terms of passing. But, again, I look for Santonio to try and imitate Kobe following his arrest, and play his ass off. For these players, the only way they will gain the acceptance of the public again will be if they stay out of trouble and play at a high level. Great news for fantasy owners.

Fantasy Basketball Breakout Player of the Year: 2010-2011 Edition

Welcome ladies and gentlemen to another edition of, Name... That... Playerrr! Now, you have managed to win the Jet-Ski, manilla folder as well as the mobile toaster which brings me to my next question. Do you want to keep playing and risk these wonderful prizes for whats behind door number 3? Of course you do! So without further ado, lets play the game.

• This player went to the same college as Karl Malone.
• He plays for the team that immortalized Karl Malone.
• He plays the same position as Karl Malone.
• It is not Karl Malone.
• In terms of 48 minute averages, he had a line of 20 points, 11 boards to go along with 2 blocks.
• In 2008, when he was able to start almost half of his teams games, he ranked 9th in the league in terms of rebound percentage (meaning if all of the players had the same opportunity to get rebounds, he would rank 9th).

So what is your guess?

Week 5 Kings and Jokers

Each week, I am going to post my top 4 predictions for breakout players (the Kings), as well as the 4 guys I think will fall flat on their fantasy faces (the Jokers).

The Kings of Week 5:

King of Spades: Beanie Wells RB, Cardinals
The Saints have been anything but godly against the run this year, yielding 138.3 YPG. With a young QB under center, I look for the Cards to try and run the ball early and often and use their home field to attempt to contain the Saints' powerful offense.


King of Diamonds: Sam Bradford QB, Rams
Oklahoma Sam is the shining example of why football is overtaking baseball as America's sport. He has almost single-handedly brought the Rams from the undisputed worst team in the league to a group with a respectable chance to make the playoffs. (Thank you NFC West!). While he hasn't had a true breakout game this year, look for Detroit to provide him with an opportunity to do so. I mean, that's what they're in the league for right?

King of Clubs: Mario Manningham WR, Giants
The Giants' 3rd receiver has managed to eclipse 80 yards in each of the games he has played. Throw in the fact that New York is taking on the team which has given up the most passing yards in the league. Steve Smith has been underwhelming this year, and Hakeem Nicks can only catch so many passes. That leaves Manningham with, hopefully, his first 100 yard game of the year.


King of Hearts: Fred Jackson RB, Bills
The departure of Marshawn Lynch turned the clarity of the Buffalo backfield from mud to fish tank that is being taken care of by a 7 year old. While he will still split carries with C.J. Spiller, the Jacksonville D will let up some yards in the passing game, and I like FJax to gobble some of those up.

The Jokers:



LaDainian Tomlinson RB, Jets
Minnesota's run defense is impenetrable. Look for the Vikings to challenge Sanchez to beat them through the air using someone other than Dustin Keller. I'm looking at you Santonio.



Matt Forte RB, Bears
Forte has been incredible in the passing game. In PPR he has been hit or miss, as he won many matchups in week 1 and lost just as many in the last 2 weeks. Watch for another weak performance in week 5, as he goes up against a respectable Panthers' run D. The Bears will air it out, and if though he might get 5 or 6 catches, Forte will fail to reach 30 yards rushing yet again.

Kyle Orton QB, Broncos

Orton has looked like a premier fantasy QB so far this year, posting 300 yard game one after another. Hell, if I had bet all of you that Kyle Orton would have the most passing yards in the league after the first 4 weeks, I could have made a lot of money. Of course, those games have come against some of the worst passing defenses this year, with two of them ranking in the bottom four. Enter the stiffest passing D in the league in Baltimore, and I see a rough week for Orton coming.


Ryan Torain RB, Redskins

Ok, so maybe he's not much of a stud, but people are spending their FAAB budgets like he is. While I think he could be a worthwhile investment, I wouldn't recommend picking him up with the hopes of playing him this week. Green Bay is serviceable against the run, but how often will the ball be carried? The Redskins and Packers both boast great QBs and terrible pass defenses.  What do those two things put together equal? Shootout!

Thanks for taking the time to read this article! If you have questions about who you should start or sit don't hesitate to ask. I'm always ready to answer.

Here's the results from last week:

Week 4 Kings:
Kenny Britt WR, Titans- ✓ | Hey, he got a TD and some yards, what else were you expecting? 
Bruce Gradkowski QB, Raiders- Push | A very good passing line, but 3 TOs makes it worse.
Kevin Walter WR, Texans- X | Andre being out really hurt this one. Nnamdi is mean.
Shonn Greene RB, Jets- ✓ | He might not have gotten his job back, but Greene owners rejoiced Sunday.

Week 4 Jokers:

Hines Ward WR, Steelers- ✓ | Two catches for 12 yards is definitely a down week for Hines.
Matt Ryan QB, Falcons- Push | If Nate Clements had held onto that INT, his line would have been Ug-lee.
Steve Smith WR, Panthers- ✓ | Being carted off helped my case, but he wasn't exactly golden before the unfortunate injury.

Ahmad Bradshaw RB, Giants- X | This was just a flat out miss. But I'm man enough to admit it.

Record: 4-2-2

Fantasy Impact: Randy Moss to the Vikings

 Make sure you "like" FSC! There's a link right over there -->

Should this deal go down, Vikings fans will be saying "Jackson who?" or "Rice who?". Randy Moss is

the big play receiver they have shown that they need. Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin have proven that their roles are as secondary options, which they succeeded as last year. While there have been many more problems than just WR for the hapless Vikings so far, it has been evident by Brett Favre's dependence on TE Visanthe Shiancoe and RB Adrian Peterson that he doesn't have much trust on his routerunners. That's why the arrival of Randy Moss would be a sight for sore eyes. Even though Moss' "mooning" episode against the Packers is still burned into my brain, the Purple and Yellow is where Randy belongs.

So if (or should I say when) this trade goes down, what will come of it in fantasy terms? Let's break it down by team, shall we:



Vikings:

Fantasy Basketball ADP Battles

One of the comparisons I like to draw when it comes to fantasy drafts is grocery shopping. I know what you're thinking and no, its not the fact that grocery stores are said to be a great place to meet women. (And if thats the case, what fantasy leagues are you in?) But i digress. Fantasy drafts are like visits to the grocery store because its all about value. We have a limit for how much money we want to spend, and the goal is to get as much value as possible without going over budget. This analogy is pretty much literal for people in auction drafts, but it also works the same way for us, traditional snake drafters.

Say you walk down the cereal aisle and you know you need some fruity loops of some kind (sorry, the last thing I need is a copyright lawsuit). There are two choices that confront you, the generic or the name brand. The generic stuff tastes like cardboard, but is usually a buck cheaper, and you're all about value. Well today is your lucky day! You see that for some reason, the name brand stuff has dropped their price down to match the generic. That's the sort of situation I'm talking about in this post. With the current ADPs listed from MockDraftCentral, I have pointed out a few players who are going in nearly identical spots in the draft, despite one player tasting like cardboard.

(Sidenote: RotoTimes has a great tool to compare fantasy players. Just check it out here to see the stats comparisons that I make in this article in front of your own eyes.)

Al Jefferson (35.22) vs David West (36.67)

Both of these big guys are coming off of injury plagued seasons after high fantasy expectations in 2009-10. Wests' future looks bright with the return of CP3. Having the All-World point guard dishing him the ball, look for DWest's stats to make a generous jump. West might be on the way up, but Jeffersons' ceiling is higher. Not only is Big Al's autograph incredible, but he was an undisputed first round talent in most drafts last year. Throw in the fact, that he just moved into a much better situation with a much better point guard, in Utah. As long as he is able to play 90-95% of his games this year, he should get back into the 20/10 range, something West couldn't reach even in his younger days.


Aaron Brooks (64.33) vs Brandon Jennings (64.33)

If you're looking for a turnover prone point guard, boy do I have some guys for you. Both Brooks and Jennings managed to accumulate over 200 TOs. Each have their tradeoffs, Brooks scored more, Jennings stole more. Brandon slightly rebounded better, while Aaron knocked down 65 more 3s. Each are great players for fantasy, but its Jennings' inefficiency that makes him a toxic asset in my mind. In roto, Brandon can put a real damper on your shooting percentage no matter how many big men you stock up on. With two guys who have comparable statistics (even though I think Brooks outperforms Jennings overall), when one guy has such terrible efficeincy, I can't help but take the safer pick to not ruin my team. In other words, don't get lured in by the 51 point game.


Luis Scola (105.11) vs J.J. Hickson (105.11)


Comparing these two players on their 09-10 stats would be a huge mistake. This matchup is all about speculation. Hickson only amassed an underwhelming 8.5 PPG to go along with 4.9 rebounds. Of course this is all in the post-LeBron era. Take away all of the points, assists and rebounds from James and they have to be divided up amongst the players who actually stayed in a Cavs uniform. Hickson will not be the sole beneficiary of these stats, but I look for him to be a much bigger factor as he moves into what should be a starting spot. On the other hand is Scola, who needs no speculation. There is not much change going on in the frontcourt of Houston, with the exception of the semi-return of Yao. I look for Scola to put up similar numbers to those of last year, while Hickson jumps on the opportunity in Cleveland and becomes a mainstay in their lineup. This late in the draft, go with the upside, take Hickson and hope for the best.


Greg Oden (141.78) vs Roy Hibbert (142.56) vs Spencer Hawes (143.78)

Here's 3 centers who all have varying storylines heading into this year. One (Oden) is as injury prone as they come, the next (Hibbert) is just waiting to bust out of his shell, and the last (Hawes) is enjoying a change of scenery in Philadelphia. However, with each of these storylines comes a bit of risk. Hibbert seems like a breakout target to most, but he might only play as well as last year. Hawes will adjust to a new starting position in the 76ers offense, which could mean big things if he meshes well. The presence of both Elton Brand and Marrese Speights makes me a little weary of how many minutes he can get in the Philadelphia offense. Of course, last but not least, the biggest downside perhaps in all of the NBA, Greg Oden has yet to play anywhere close to a full season of basketball. Even if Oden comes back around Christmas time, he will still only play around a half season or so.
With all of that said, I would order the three players like this: Hibbert, Oden, Hawes. I believe in Hibbert, and worst case scenario, you end up with a 10/10 guy who blocks a lot of shots. If you can afford a bench spot for Oden, you might as well take the risk. He was one of the best centers in all of fantasy basketball last year before the injury, and 2.3 blocks per game is too high a number to pass up on if you can get it. That leaves us with Hawes, who is talented in his own right, but I don't see as much from him as the other two.

Well there you are. You can now shop, errr draft safely!

And remember: If you ever have fantasy questions, leave a comment below or feel free to e-mail me at bglewis@fantasysportscircle.com !